One to pick, one to risk and one to miss - Week 9

Welcome to the second in the series of one to pick, one to risk and one to miss.  And I'll start this week with a bit of an explanation on what I am trying to achieve with this post.

I could write most weeks that the one to pick is Rooney, Augero, Silva, RvP etc but that would be no fun so I will try and come up with a player to pick that is maybe in the second tier of affordability.  As for the one to risk, well here I am going to be looking for someone who may be on the slightly expensive side but could possibly return their value or more.  If you’re looking to make up ground on people in your league or want some out of the box thinking then this could be your man.  For the one to miss, I’ll be looking for a top price player that I wouldn’t touch with a 40 foot pole.

So here's a review of how I did the previous week.

One to pick – Victor Moses and Ben Watson.  I was right when I said there would be goals in the Wigan vs Bolton game but I had no idea that Bolton would be so dominant.  Returns of 3.5 and 2, respectively, means the one to pick section didn’t get off to a good start.

One to risk – Mario Balotello and Peter Odemwingie.  If I’d have followed my risky picks I’d have been much better.  Mad Mario returned 18.5 and Odemwingie 10.5 from twenty minutes on the pitch.

One to miss – Nani and Torres.  With Nani on the bench and Torres suspended I think I did pretty well here.  0.5 points between them and I think I’ll give myself a pat on the back.

Join me after the jump to see this week’s selections.

One to pick – Gabriel Agbonlahor.

Gabby finally looks like he’s back to the form he showed under Martin O’Neill.  His candid interview with Football Focus a few weeks back revealed the torrid time he spent under Gerard Houllier last year and with those shackles finally lifted, he looks like he is hitting top form this season.

This season, his home record is exemplary.  He has scored in all but one of the games at Villa Park and returned his value in the one he didn’t score in.  With a price of 10.47 he is much more affordable than Darren Bent and because of his all-round contribution to the game and to Villa’s attack, he’s less reliant on scoring a goal to return his value.

A derby fixture at home to West Brom is the only downside to this pick.

Possible alternative pickEmmanuel Adebayor – Back to fitness, at market value he’s a whole John Arne Riise cheaper than Van Der Vaart and Spurs are away to Blackburn – do you need any more reasons?

One to risk – Wayne Rooney

When is the highest points scorer in the game and the greatest player of his generation a risk?  In the ManClassico games.  After being rested last week for the trip to Liverpool and then getting 90 minutes, including scoring two penalties, away in the Champions League, it’s difficult to see the White Pele not starting the game against the noisy neighbours.

Historically, United’s games against close title rivals tend to be close and tend to be decided by an unexpected player that pops up with a goal from nowhere.  Darren Fletcher and Ji-Sung Park have made names for themselves by scoring winning goals in these types of games.  However, Rooney being Rooney, you shouldn’t count him out of being the one who makes the difference but at 22 on the open market that’s a lot of risk.

Possible alternative riskSergio Aguero.  With Vidic back and Smalling and Jones playing as well as any defenders in the league right now, Kun may not get a kick for 90 minutes or he may show sparks of that early season form and light up what could be a dreary 0-0 draw.

One to miss – Charlie Adam

A home fixture against newly promoted Norwich would normally have fantasy managers salivating.  But Liverpool fans probably don’t need me to remind them of how they fared against Blackpool last year?  Well even if they don’t need me to do it, I will.  They lost.  And Charlie Adam was the architect of that defeat.

Do I expect Liverpool to lose?  No not really, that team of early 2010-2011 is miles away from where they are now.  But I don’t think they’ll have a walk over.  Norwich have gradually found their way to 9th in the table without setting the world alight and put up a good account of themselves at Old Trafford.  The emotional come-down that normally follows a close fought and intense game with Manchester United along with a returning Gerrard and Charlie Adam will probably spend the entire game thinking about what it was like when he brought Blackpool to Anfield.

Possible alternative missFernando Torres.  What?  Torres here again?  It’s almost like I have something against the £50  million man.

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