First XI - What We Learned in Match Week 10

by Neal Thurman on Oct 30, 2011 4:46 PM PDT in Looking Back

Can you say hat trick? He can. (Photo by Ian Walton/Getty Images)

You all know that I'm an Arsenal supporter and, if you've been reading regularly, you also know that my faith has been sorely tested over the last few months. I'm not entirely out of the woods when it comes to my distress about the future of the club but I'm guessing I'm about where Liverpool supporters were when Gilette and Hicks were finally booted from the owners box last season. I feel like we've bottomed out and started the long climb back to a point where we might be able to legitimately challenge for a title. I'll get to some of the specifics in the main body of the article but more so than anything else, this weekend represented a huge emotional lift for Arsenal. It also firmly transferred the pressure generated by the press on teams near the top of the table (rightly or wrongly) from the Gooners to Chelsea who now have similar questions to answer.

Oh, and apparently there were some other matches played over the weekend as well and we'll talk about them a little bit too:

1. Buying - Five players who fully deserve the kudos they are receiving or, if they're not getting their due elsewhere, we'll make sure they do here:

Juan Mata - You can look at his match in two ways. The first is that he didn't put himself in position for either of his big moments (his assist on Lampard's opener and his goal) - Santos' defending was criminally bad on the former and Lukaku clothes-lined Santos to give Mata space on the latter. The more positive way of looking at it would be that Mata made great plays once he was given those chances regardless of how they came his way. I'm still trying to figure out what to make of him overall. My take is that he's very good but not quite as good as the TV pundits want us to think he is.
Aaron Ramsey - I have to admit, I was really concerned about him at the start of the season. He looked lost and like he was still gun shy coming off of the injury he sustained. Since his winner in the Champions League he seems to have turned the page and really started to revert to being the player that all Gooners hoped he could become. Like Mata, I'm still not sure what his upside is but he seems to be back on track to finding out which is a great sign for Arsenal as they need a strong midfield to control the ball and minimize their still extremely questionable defense.
Stephane Sessegnon - He didn't do too much of note last season after coming to the Premier League but this season he seems to have made the step up and is really helping to minimize the recent losses of DBent and Gyan. The fact that at 5' 7" (and that's probably being generous) he managed to get between Collins and Dunne for his late header that saved a point for the Black Cats was remarkable. Sunderland are going to need even more of that next weekend for their trip to Old Trafford.
Clint Dempsey - He just keeps producing. I'm honestly mystified at why he hasn't been the subject of a (relatively) big money move to a team consistently in the top half. My current thought is that he'd be a great January signing for Newcastle to help give them some depth and additional attacking quality as they try to maintain their elevated status in the table. I'm not current enough on my non-Premier League league situations to suggest teams outside of England but I'm sure there must be a few who could use him.
Conor Wickham - When a mid-table club buys a young English forward with a fairly big reputation as opposed to one of the big boys dramatically overpaying for him (see Carroll, Andy) you wonder what's wrong with him. I'm not ready to pronounce Wickham the finished article but he certainly seems like he's on track to being at least a better-than-average Premier League forward if he continues to progress. Given the amount of money spent on Peter Crouch, James Beattie, and the like over the course of their careers you have to think the future is bright for Wickham.
Tom Cleverley - This weekend you get a bonus "Buy" that comes in the form of Tom Cleverley. When confronted with the difference between United's attacking performance before and after Cleverley exited the match one of the chatters on our Barn Door Live Chat yesterday asked "Is he that good?" I'm not sure if the answer is that he's THAT good or that he's just that much better than the alternatives in the center of midfield for United but the difference can't be denied. He's not much of a fantasy player but if you're looking for indications of whether United's other fantasy options are going to produce, his presence in the line-up may be a big leading indicator.

2. Selling - Five players who are either declining before our eyes or may have looked good in spots but whose quality we aren't buying no matter what we're told by the people on TV:

John Terry - This comment really applies to the entire Chelsea defense but it's more fun to single out the eminently unlikable Terry. He has been declining for quite some time but Arsenal running rampant (it really could/should have been 7 goals for Wenger's boys) puts the exclamation point on a season in which Chelsea have given up at least one bad goal in nearly all of their matches. Bosingwa was also poor so not all the blame can be placed on Terry but he seems to be disintegrating before our eyes (and that's before we take into account that by all reports he's a miserable human being).
Andre Santos - Fantasy managers loved him yesterday but here's another goal-scoring defender whose performance was only marginally redeemed by the goal he scored. He conspired to allow Juan Mata and Daniel Sturridge to run down the attacking right side at will. His poor defending led directly to Mata's cross for Chelsea's opener. He was lucky that Sturridge had a miserable match or he would have been responsible for more damage. He played slightly better in the second half but unless he makes a habit of scoring goals to make up for the ones he lets buy him then he needs to go (or at least get on a fitness program and decide he actually wants to run back on defense).
Petr Cech - Another cornerstone of the Mourinho Era at Chelsea who is disintegrating before our eyes. His defense certainly didn't help him out but there was a time when you were sure that he'd make 2-3 spectacular saves to bail out his defenders if they let him down. Yesterday, when his defenders needed him he let balls from Walcott, van Persie, and Santos past him on the near side. All of them were well struck but they could all also have been saved by a world class keeper at the height of his powers. Cech is not that guy anymore and if Chelsea are to contend next season (sorry, this season is over for them in the title chase) then they need to take a page from SAF's book and recruit a replacement.
Chicharito (the fantasy player) - A few problems with the Mexican hit man as it relates to fantasy. The first is rotation - his starts have been uneven. The second is that (with apologies to Buddy Ryan) - all he does is score goals. In the real world, this is a good thing and he gets a lot of deserved love for the ratio of goals scored to minutes played. For fantasy managers, especially in the Yahoo format, this just isn't enough. He has played in 9 of 10 matches this season and due to a combination of rotation and lack of non-goal-scoring production he's been worthwhile in 3 of those 9 and exceptional only twice. My point is not to get too carried away by his one goal and get your hopes up with him.
Collins/Dunne - How do you let that little guy get between you for a tying header when you're defending a lead late? Apparently this was the weekend for defenders scoring but ultimately disappointing as Dunne also had a goal but couldn't figure out how to mark the diminutive attacker to get Villa the two additional points on the road.

3. A Good Sign at City - The prevailing wisdom about championship winning teams is that they need to grind out results when they're not playing their best. City were certainly not at their flowing best despite having their first choice attackers - Aguero, Dzeko, Silva, and Nasri - in against Wolves. Despite their misfiring, they kept plugging away and ended up with a fairly comfortable 3-1 win. The match was at home and the opposition wasn't great but the one thing Wolves have been able to hang their collective hats on in recent years is that they've been able to come up big against big competition (much less so against poor competition). That City dodged this bullet and won comfortably is further evidence of their credentials as favorites for the title. Next up, winning on the road at Loftus Road without the rock in the middle of their defense Vincent Kompany.

4. United Pull Through - It wasn't pretty for the reigning champions but it was a difficult away match and like City, getting the three points when not playing great is as big as cruising to an easy victory, perhaps more so after getting beat down last weekend. Perhaps the big question left by United's mediocre play in the final 30 minutes after Cleverley came off is how they'll look at home against Sunderland if Cleverley doesn't recover in time. On limited evidence so far he seems to be the straw that stirs the drink at United this season. Who would have guessed that of a guy who was good but not great at Wigan last season.

5. Robin van Persie - There probably aren't enough superlatives to describe how important he is to Arsenal right now. Messi and CRon are both more talented and prolific but you can't argue that either are more important to their respective team's success. The combination of RvP's talent and the gap between his and the next most talented player at Arsenal has got to be among the largest in the world right now. Can he stay healthy? Can Gervinho, Walcott, Wilshere, or Ramsey start playing consistently enough to offer a strong sidekick or two? All huge questions that loom. In the meantime, let's just bask in the glow of his current scoring pace.

6. The Cluster in the Middle - Last season saw an incredible clustering of clubs in the middle of the table with 7 points separating 16th from 8th at the close of 2010/11. It looks like we're setting up for a similar ending this season as 3 points currently separate that same gap (16th to 8th). Part of this can be attributed to being only a quarter of the way through the season but with between $750,000 and $1,000,000 difference in prize money for each place in the table positioning within that large cluster can be worth enough to be able to afford (or not afford) an additional quality transfer in next summer. There aren't too many players bought for more than $8M by clubs between 8th and 16th so when we marginalize things like the 2 points Villa dropped to Sunderland (or the 1 point that Sunderland saved late) by saying that they're both mid-table and that they won't matter over time, don't be so sure.

7. Graham Giveth and Graham Taketh Away - Danny Graham has been having a great run over the past month topping off his run of goals with a brace yesterday. The only problem with yesterday's brace was that only one of them counted for his team while the other killed fantasy weekends for almost all of Swansea's players (with the exception of Allen and Sinclair). The OG that he scored kept Rangel, Monk, and Vorm from their clean sheets and diminished Graham himself from having a great day 14.5 to having a strong, but not great, day (11.5). You can commend Graham for coming back to help on D because over the course of the season Swansea will probably require effort but yesterday wasn't one of those days and he really didn't need to be there to destroy fantasy hopes around the world.

8. Good Away Win for Liverpool - You have to feel like Liverpool aren't really living up to the expectations that their supporters have for them given the amount of money that they've spent on the current squad. Despite the feelings of disappointment that may be starting to spread around Anfield [now that the John Henry/Fenway Sports Group/They're Not Hicks/Gilette honeymoon is receding] this weekend offered some hope for the red side of Liverpool. Suarez still isn't cashing in on nearly as many of his opportunities as he should be he looked to be developing a bit of rapport with Andy Carroll. Throw in a comfortable clean sheet away win and it was a good weekend for King Kenny and the crew. Now if only Spurs would help them out and drop some points in a match they should win.

9. Still To Do At Arsenal - Before we get TOO carried away with the big success at Stamford Bridge, let's take a minute to go down the list of things that still need to be fixed for the long-term success of the club:

A good and healthy left back - Gibbs is OK but seems to be on the Ledley King/Jonathan Woodgate/Owen Hargreaves injury plan; Santos is just not good at defending.
A big name coming in - It may be that the healthy trio of Wilshere, Ramsey, and Arteta is a solid engine room in midfield but Arsenal need to not only improve the overall talent of their squad but combat the notion that they're a selling club/Manchester City feeder team. Only by breaking their policy and paying top dollar will they combat that notion and in the process (hopefully) convince RvP to stay. Hazard would be great as would Gotze but hard to see them ponying up enough money for either.
Another holding midfielder - It may be that Frimpong and/or Coquelin will turn into excellent players once they're old enough to shave regularly but Arsenal have a gap between Song and these two that they haven't filled since Flamini went off to Italy - a good back-up at holding midfielder.
A beast at the back - I've heard it mentioned that Mertesacker plays well for Germany with a faster central partner to compliment him but watching him try to mark John Terry yesterday makes me wonder how a speedy partner would have helped there as he looked helpless on what was only OK execution by Chelesa. How they have failed to just buy Chris Samba is a bit of a mystery. Will they buy yet another central defender after they bought Per in August? Certainly seems like they need to.
My Words > My Actions - As I predicted in The Week Ahead, Gareth Bale was The Man for Spurs. While it is good for my ego to have been right in my column, it does my team no good when I don't follow my own advice. I did have VDV which will turn out well but in picking Modric and not finding a way to get to Bale I did my team a pretty huge disservice. If you're curious, my words are having a much better season than my actual fantasy team. Pretty frustrating having to a) watch Spurs win; b) watch the guy I predicted racking up the fantasy points; and c) watch the guys I DID pick (K2 and Modric) waste their chances. In the real world, well done by Spurs to win one they were supposed to win and not let Arsenal or Liverpool back into the race for fourth. One question that you could ask after watching the last two weekends, who is ahead in the race for 3rd? Spurs or Chelsea? With a match in hand Spurs are even on points and have more quality wins than Chelsea. Chelsea have better depth and bigger names but Spurs are playing better. Just something to think about as we continue to call them the "Big Three" and the "Next Three".
[SPACE HELD FOR NUFC/STOKE NOTE]

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Comments

Great post Neal!

Would people like to share their barn door picks for GW 11?

Any prognosis on Gerrard?

And how about advice between Bent and Agbonlahor?

by David Brian on Oct 30, 2011 6:43 PM PDT reply actions

I'm liking Gabby more than DBent so far this season

Gerrard seems to be out for a while – I’d ditch him and look for someone who will be starting immediately.

by Neal Thurman on Oct 30, 2011 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks

I’m worried that you’re right about Stevie G. Will probably wait to drop him until more news comes out later this week, but I’m already looking at alternatives.

I am leaning toward Gabby over Bent since his average is higher, his price is lower, and he seems to be more of a complete fantasy player than Bent. But Bent takes PKs, which always appeals to me.

by David Brian on Oct 30, 2011 7:42 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

my preliminary picks

de gea
wheater, agger, vermaelen
taarabt, van der vaart cabaye, o’hara
aguero, graham and suarez

this week i have 92.5 with cabaye to go. let me point out something bitter. i had dzeko from the first week of the season and ageuro since week 2. 2 weeks ago i dropped dzeko for sturridge then graham. i got 2 then 11.5 points. dzeko outscored aguero in both of those weeks, 29.5 then 9.5 points to kun’s 12.5 and 8 points. i just listened to everyone saying how undroppable aguero is yet dzeko has more points total and points per game.

by gregandtonic on Oct 30, 2011 7:42 PM PDT reply actions

Don’t think you would/‘ve said that the week before because if not for the trashing, Dzeko will probably not even get the see game time. It’s only logical to keep Aguero over Dzeko. Really if you had not listen to people’s advice, that you would keep Dzeko over Aguero?

Something to ponder about imo…

by Eldwin on Oct 30, 2011 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry I meant Do you think

by Eldwin on Oct 30, 2011 10:35 PM PDT reply actions

i am the one who ultimately made the choice about dzeko. everytime i go against the popular pick it backfires so i was leery of keeping dzeko over aguero. most recently was 2 weeks ago when i chose ba instead of suarez. he had just as good a matchup but everyone had suarez.

by gregandtonic on Oct 31, 2011 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions

great post Neal

Great to read on a mon mornin to sum up the weekend! Keep up the good work! Gerrard and balotelli let me down and have been replaced with Walcott and mata respectively, how come no one knew Gerard was injured before sat? Highlight overlooked I reckon was s petrovs goal!

by kendomedalaha on Oct 31, 2011 4:18 AM PDT via iPhone app reply actions

Learning?

119 points for the week with Wilson yet to play. 901 points for the season is well beyond all my expectations and I would like to continue to thank everyone for their time & effort. I am a true fan of the sport as well as the “fantasy” aspect of the game.

I understand that I have miles to go but to be truthful…that’s what I find the most interesting.
That I have so much more to learn!

A little note on Nik’s Spurs. Scott Parker is one fine player. At least he was yesterday.

by K.M. on Oct 31, 2011 4:46 AM PDT reply actions

England

Been impressed with Adam Johnson he would be at the helm of any other side would be a good permanent partnership with Parker

by kendomedalaha on Oct 31, 2011 9:18 AM PDT via iPhone app reply actions

Searching for an edge.

This coming week I find it increasingly difficult to field a team without Suarez. Looks like a great match up to be sure. There is however..a problem.

I was silly enough to let RVP go the other week even though I held him at 20. Based on the next 6 games I see that as a great disadvantage. I may however, hold the solution.

I currently hold VDV and now Bale at some nice discounts. The next 6 games also look very favorable for the pair. VDV is gold while Bale (could) be hitting his stride. In order to fit in Suarez I would have to let Bale go, and the next (few) fixtures for Suarez are not as promising.

My decision has been made and I will not be bringing in Suarez for this week in hopes that my new pair of VDV & Bale do well causing their price to rise giving me the advantage I am looking for over the next several weeks.

It is all on Bale at this point. If he continues to excel the “core” of my team will be solid and the balance of funds/players looks good.

My question is: Is Suarez a must have player for next week and my focus should be more direct on the week at hand?

by K.M. on Oct 31, 2011 9:59 AM PDT reply actions

Hi Ken.

Because he will be so widely-held this week, Suarez will certainly be the “safe” choice over Bale. Whether he does well or poorly you will be insulated from a wild swing in your overall rank.

Bale would be a “differential”—if he explodes again this week he will set you apart because relatively few folks will be playing him. If he doesn’t and Suarez or some other widely-held alternative you rejected for Bale does, then you will tumble in the standings.

It’s a risk you’ve got to evaluate and decide for yourself—that’s what makes this game so fun and interesting.

As far as your question about focusing on the week at hand, I’m no expert at this game, but I think those who are tend to make decisions for the upcoming GW without much of an eye toward the fixtures that lie beyond it.

by David Brian on Oct 31, 2011 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Hi dave

Hope you are doing well this year. Like I stated, I will be staying with Bale. Hopefully the bad swing will be Suarez, 23 points, Bale, 8 Points. I am actually in a position to absorb that if that’s the “only” bad play I make.

But…

If Bale hits for 23 again….. and Suarez gets abducted by aliens then I should move way up in the standings.

Sounds logical?

by K.M. on Oct 31, 2011 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Not logical since Liverpool is not playing Arsenal, and therefore Gervinho (clearly an alien) will not have an opportunity to abduct Suarez.

Seriously, I salute your style and wish you the best.

by David Brian on Oct 31, 2011 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Liverpool disappointment unwarranted

I can see how some LFC fans might be disenchanted with the team’s place in the table and/or their results so far this season, but I am a Liverpool fan myself and am extremely happy with the performances so far this season.

If not for some fantastic goalkeeping (and Suarez only converting about 10% of his chances), Liverpool would have won the games against United and Norwich, not to mention Stoke. If they had won even two of those three games, they would be sitting in second place right now.

They are playing the style of football that is necessary to win titles, but they are still a very “new” team with all of the new acquisitions and players coming up through the academy. The Suarez/Carroll partnership has just begun developing, and when the team begins converting a higher ratio of its chances it will be a force to be reckoned with.

I see this season as a transition season where Liverpool could easily finish in the Top 4, but would be well set up to challenge the likes of City, United, Spurs and Chelsea for the title next season.

by DasBoot_8 on Oct 31, 2011 10:21 AM PDT reply actions

fellow fan

We’ve tied teams we should have defeated, but we’ve looked great doing it. I’m with you DasBoot – as a fan, I’m delighted by our performances, and honestly, in the battle w/ Spurs/Gunners for 4th (maybe 3rd if Chelski keep floundering?) I think we’re deeper, better equipped to handle the length of the season and some injuries. Whereas if VDV or RVP get injured (and they both tend to), our competition is in trouble.

by GeoffMumz on Oct 31, 2011 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Carroll?

Since we’re on the topic of Liverpool, I am thinking of making a play on Carroll, who I BD’d at 11….I also sold Suarez last week and felt that I needed Liverpool coverage. It seems like the Suarez-Carroll partnership is taking shape and Dalglish seems happy…And Carroll did score and have a few good shots. It also looks like with all the attention defenses will be focusing on Suarez, he will be the open man to bang it on in….

Still don’t know if I am actually going to go through with this though as there are some other tasty forward options. Plus I am not sure if Carroll has fully made it off the bench…Any thoughts?

by asm on Oct 31, 2011 1:01 PM PDT reply actions