We're back again for another week of predictions. Last week seemed fairly typical.. 10 of the teams were within 0.75 goals of the prediction. The big winner of the weekend was the largest predicted score (ManU). There was a bit of a snafu with the Man City prediction.. ah well, you can't win em all. I was happy to see that Sunderland did better against Rovers than the Baggies did against Wigan, a comparison I semi-predicted, and actually one that I feel matches the utility of this system perfectly (i.e. where to look for your last one or two spots).
The coming week has some great choices, including some good excuses to break the "buy home players" rule. See below for the predictions.
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.
Everton 1.56 (+0.47) -v- Norwich 1.10 (-0.46)
Fulham 1.96 (+0.94) -v- Bolton 1.08 (-0.40)
Blackburn 2.02 (+0.43) -v- West Brom 1.24 (+0.28)
Wolves 1.41 (+0.27) -v- Stoke 1.05 (+0.03)
Newcastle 1.29 (-0.15) -v- Swansea 0.68 (-0.33)
Wigan 0.92 (+0.01) -v- Chelsea 2.41 (+0.28)
QPR 0.82 (-0.21) -v- Man United 2.31 (-0.07)
Aston Villa 0.76 (-0.40) -v- Liverpool 0.86 (-0.36)
Tottenham 2.20 (+0.08) -v- Sunderland 0.81 (-0.32)
Man City 3.93 (+0.62) -v- Arsenal 1.20 (-0.95)
The top three teams are the big offensive picks this weekend. The number predicted for Man City is quite large despite being against the fifth place team, we'll see how that turns out. Fulham is slated to do quite a bit better than their average as well, so there may be some good marginal picks there. There aren't any real controversial predictions this week, I think everything looks pretty reasonable. We'll see if it all goes to hell next week! Good luck with your picks.