A quick turnaround this week, so I've tried to post as early as I could. Over the weekend the model did only moderately well with seven of the teams within 0.75 points of the prediction. It was a low scoring week in general, with not a single team putting up three goals. As far as the highlighted teams, Fulham and Man United did as well as predicted by the model. Chelsea and Man City fell considerably short. I think it's safe to say that low scoring weeks lead to unhappy fantasy managers :)
But hopefully the tired legs will lead to many a goal during the midweek games. Below are the predictions for Tuesday through Thursday.
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.
Wolves 1.60 (+0.49) -v- Norwich 1.64 (+0.15)
Blackburn 2.79 (+1.33) -v- Bolton 1.79 (+0.46)
Aston Villa 1.23 (+0.11) -v- Arsenal 1.56 (-0.51)
Man City 3.65 (+0.55) -v- Stoke 0.59 (-0.53)
Newcastle 1.76 (+0.39) -v- West Brom 0.71 (-0.34)
Fulham 0.85 (-0.20) -v- Man United 1.62 (-0.79)
QPR 1.00 (+0.02) -v- Sunderland 1.05 (-0.01)
Everton 0.94 (-0.15) -v- Swansea 0.71 (-0.25)
Wigan 0.60 (-0.34) -v- Liverpool 1.42 (+0.16)
Tottenham 2.16 (+0.06) -v- Chelsea 1.43 (-0.65)
Only two clear offensive picks this week. Man City are basically solid every week, but this week instead of being the punching bag, Blackburn look to be a decent pick. Liverpool and Man City are the choices for defense. I find it interesting that the model favors Norwich slightly over Wolves even away. I guess I'd call that the only rogue prediction this week. Good luck with your picks!