This past week the model had a slightly rough go of it, getting just 7 of the 20 teams correct. However, it did manage to predict roughly the correct scores for the highlighted teams, so hopefully everyone is happy about that. Of course we missed Arsenal's surge in the north London derby, but this year's derby matches have been rife with unpredictable drama. We have a rather simple set of predictions for you this week revolving around our current leaders. Will it be Dzeko or Balotelli? Anyone's guess.
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.
Liverpool 1.25 (+0.06) -v- Arsenal 0.96 (-0.94)
Stoke 1.19 (+0.25) -v- Norwich 1.24 (-0.23)
Blackburn 1.72 (+0.18) -v- Aston Villa 1.56 (+0.41)
Wigan 0.93 (-0.03) -v- Swansea 1.21 (+0.14)
Man City 4.37 (+1.82) -v- Bolton 0.53 (-0.67)
West Brom 1.48 (+0.10) -v- Chelsea 1.49 (-0.30)
QPR 0.92 (-0.12) -v- Everton 1.09 (+0.06)
Newcastle 1.42 (-0.05) -v- Sunderland 1.11 (-0.20)
Fulham 1.96 (+0.80) -v- Wolves 1.02 (-0.21)
Tottenham 1.65 (-0.26) -v- Man United 1.33 (-1.02)
It looks like this won't be the week that Man United make their move to the front.. they'll be happy just to keep pace. Outside of fantasy concerns, there are some peculiar predictions up there. Maybe the model is as jet-lagged as I am. Norwich favored over Stoke away? Blackburn favored over Villa? West Brom and Chelsea too close to call? I'll be curious to see how those games turn out. Liverpool v. Arsenal looks like a fun matchup this week as well. Will Arsenal keep up last week's run of scoring, or will Liverpool kick off phase 2 in their campaign for a domestic treble? ;) Good luck with your picks!