Had the opportunity to get a quick update in just after the derby today, so here you are! It seems like standard week for the model, 11 picks within 0.75 out of 22 predictions. But it was an odd week in one way: away teams performed abysmally. The homes teams kept 7 clean sheets out of 11 games, which is a striking number. The away teams as a group averaged 0.45 goals per game, which is a far cry from the league average of 1.18 (and it wasn't as though only poor teams were away). So it was a good week to pick some home players, particularly if one of them was Stevie G :)
But enough of the past.. next week's predictions are below!
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.
Wigan 1.01 (+0.08) -v- West Brom 1.48 (+0.18)
Fulham 1.14 (-0.07) -v- Swansea 0.89 (-0.22)
Wolves 0.94 (-0.16) -v- Man United 3.13 (+0.68)
Newcastle 1.93 (+0.50) -v- Norwich 1.19 (-0.23)
Aston Villa 1.85 (+0.74) -v- Bolton 0.91 (-0.26)
Blackburn 1.41 (-0.10) -v- Sunderland 1.69 (+0.40)
Man City 2.47 (+0.08) -v- Chelsea 0.73 (-0.94)
Tottenham 2.11 (+0.21) -v- Stoke 0.68 (-0.28)
QPR 0.74 (-0.28) -v- Liverpool 1.19 (+0.08)
Everton 1.11 (+0.12) -v- Arsenal 1.25 (-0.84)
The new league leaders are the pick of the week, even in an away game, followed by Man City and Villa. A few other teams are set for decent showings as well, so it should be a fun fantasy week. And just look at where the model has Chelsea away to City.. could the gap in form be that large? Best of luck with your picks!