How quickly the season moves, we're already in the 30s. A rough week for the model, with only 7 of the 18 teams coming out within 0.75 points of the prediction. I made a nervy last minute forward switch only to find out that neither player would start (talk about futility :). On the bright side, Man United came up with the goods, as predicted, though I doubt too many people had bet on Chicharito. But that's the way it goes sometimes. On to the week at hand!
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.
Chelsea 1.61 (-0.05) -v- Tottenham 1.32 (-0.54)
Bolton 2.12 (+0.93) -v- Blackburn 1.85 (+0.31)
Liverpool 1.83 (+0.68) -v- Wigan 0.48 (-0.45)
Arsenal 2.23 (+0.18) -v- Aston Villa 0.88 (-0.24)
Norwich 2.57 (+1.19) -v- Wolves 1.05 (-0.05)
Sunderland 1.83 (+0.58) -v- QPR 0.69 (-0.32)
Swansea 1.05 (-0.15) -v- Everton 0.66 (-0.32)
Stoke 0.55 (-0.39) -v- Man City 1.79 (-0.54)
West Brom 1.48 (+0.18) -v- Newcastle 1.12 (-0.29)
Man United 3.08 (+0.52) -v- Fulham 0.72 (-0.47)
Lots of great choices this week, though of course it might be best to hold off on Bolton for the moment. Even if the game is on, you can't think the players will be in a normal frame of mind. Given the wealth of alternatives, I'd say best to be cautious. Good luck with your picks, and we'll see you back next week!