We're back again for yet another week! It was another solid week for the model, with 11 of the 20 teams within 0.75 points of the prediction. And while we would have hoped for more scoring out of Man City to be sure, Fulham's blowout against Wolves rewarded those who believed in the model's predictions. My only regret for the weekend is having sold off Pog to barndoor some worthless junk without buying him back before the door closed. But I won't lament the points he netted me, as I think it finally sealed victory for me in my private league.
On to the week at hand! It's a double week for Liverpool and Everton, but the numbers are not all that impressive. All the same, it's best to go for double-game players if you can. See below for the predictions.
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.
Bolton 1.73 (+0.57) -v- QPR 1.24 (+0.20)
Swansea 0.66 (-0.44) -v- Man City 1.77 (-0.70)
Chelsea 1.96 (+0.23) -v- Stoke 0.76 (-0.23)
Man United 2.62 (+0.25) -v- West Brom 0.83 (-0.53)
Sunderland 0.93 (-0.33) -v- Liverpool 0.79 (-0.40)
Aston Villa 1.26 (+0.13) -v- Fulham 0.88 (-0.23)
Wolves 2.20 (+1.02) -v- Blackburn 1.79 (+0.28)
Everton 0.89 (-0.13) -v- Tottenham 1.25 (-0.69)
Norwich 2.35 (+0.89) -v- Wigan 0.90 (-0.03)
Arsenal 2.42 (+0.30) -v- Newcastle 1.16 (-0.27)
Liverpool 1.07 (-0.12) -v- Everton 0.54 (-0.48)
Note that the double week means that you can sum the two teams up to:
Liverpool 1.86 (+0.67) and Everton 1.43 (+0.41)
For double week teams that's utterly pathetic. Liverpool's defense is probably the place you should start looking for bargains, as there's a very reasonable chance of two clean sheets. They are certainly the more attractive option on offense as well, though I wouldn't utterly eviscerate your team to get them in.
There are some interesting choices aside from the double weekers. If you were ever going to bet on the canaries it would be against Wigan. And what does it say about Swansea's effort this year that Man City isn't highlighted visiting them? In any case, good luck with your picks and I'll see you back next week!