Hello managers,

Just three weeks to go, and a major week both for fantasy managers and for the title race.. what's not to love? The model continued its so-so performance last week, with 9 of the 22 teams getting within 0.75 points of the prediction. That's certainly an improvement over the previous showing, but it does in some sense confirm that looking at form is very important late in the season. In any case, I'll continue with the predictions with the advice that you edit them to reflect the fact that some teams are firing on all cylinders (Newcastle, Wigan despite this week's slip) while others are sputtering (Tottenham, perhaps Liverpool). Predictions below!

As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.

Everton 1.44 (+0.16) -v- Fulham 0.79 (-0.43)

Wigan 1.11 (+0.04) -v- Newcastle 1.57 (+0.02)

Stoke 0.93 (+0.01) -v- Arsenal 1.58 (-0.37)

Sunderland 1.96 (+0.76) -v- Bolton 0.77 (-0.35)

Swansea 2.06 (+0.94) -v- Wolves 0.76 (-0.26)

West Brom 1.42 (+0.18) -v- Aston Villa 0.82 (-0.21)

Norwich 1.21 (-0.16) -v- Liverpool 1.24 (+0.05)

Chelsea 2.29 (+0.63) -v- QPR 0.78 (-0.33)

Tottenham 3.00 (+1.30) -v- Blackburn 0.97 (-0.43)

Man City 2.08 (-0.35) -v- Man United 1.16 (-1.23)

Stoke 0.84 (-0.09) -v- Everton 1.03 (-0.25)

Liverpool 1.35 (+0.15) -v- Fulham 0.78 (-0.44)

Chelsea 1.72 (+0.06) -v- Newcastle 1.09 (-0.46)

Bolton 1.08 (-0.04) -v- Tottenham 1.99 (+0.29)

Obviously a ton of double games, so here's what they look like combined into one:

Stoke 1.77 (+0.85), Everton 2.47 (+1.19), Liverpool 2.59 (+1.39), Fulham 1.57 (+0.35), Chelsea 4.01 (+2.35), Newcastle 2.66 (+1.11), Bolton 1.85 (+0.73), Tottenham 4.99 (+3.29)

That's a lot of information, so here are the top teams' combined predictions for the week:

Bolton 1.85 (+0.73) (DG - double game)

Sunderland 1.96 (+0.76)

Stoke 1.77 (+0.85) (DG)

Swansea 2.06 (+0.94)

Everton 2.47 (+1.19) (DG)

Liverpool 2.59 (+1.39) (DG)

Newcastle 2.66 (+1.11) (DG)

Chelsea 4.01 (+2.35) (DG)

Tottenham 4.99 (+3.29) (DG)

It looks like we are absolutely spoiled for choice this week, and I can't decide whether that's a blessing or a curse. The teams with far and away the best predictions are Chelsea and Tottenham, though you feel like either one could give you a non-performance. At least with two games you have two rolls of the dice. I have no idea what I'm going to do yet, but I'm hoping for some great games this weekend. Good luck with your picks!