It was the biggest weekend of the season for more than one reason.. but a full 28 teams played and the model only managed to get 8 of the scores within 0.75 points of reality. This is in keeping with its apparent end-of-season decline. But it appears still to be of some use in predicting the big point scorers.. Tottenham (6) and Chelsea (6) were the big guns.
So here we are with only two weeks left in the season, and it is really crunch time. The predictions for this week are really quite simple, and they can be found below
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average. I bold the stand-out teams, but be sure to take note of which number is bolded, as that changes the interpretation.
Arsenal 2.87 (+0.94) -v- Norwich 0.97 (-0.38)
Newcastle 0.94 (-0.53) -v- Man City 1.82 (-0.58)
Aston Villa 0.93 (-0.09) -v- Tottenham 1.35 (-0.26)
Bolton 1.31 (+0.10) -v- West Brom 1.38 (+0.18)
QPR 1.24 (+0.12) -v- Stoke 0.98 (+0.04)
Fulham 1.19 (-0.01) -v- Sunderland 0.99 (-0.22)
Wolves 1.00 (-0.13) -v- Everton 1.81 (+0.47)
Man United 2.65 (+0.29) -v- Swansea 0.70 (-0.47)
Blackburn 1.87 (+0.50) -v- Wigan 1.43 (+0.29)
Liverpool 1.16 (-0.06) -v- Chelsea 1.06 (-0.64)
Two clear choices, and you'd have to think Man United will be looking to maximize the goal difference, even if 8 seems like an impossible gap to make up without City dropping points. Honorable mention to Everton despite the lack of bolding. Their numbers are still strong, and Jelavic and Timmy are sure to be popular picks. Good luck with your picks.. this is sure to be an exciting penultimate weekend!