First of all, I would like to thank BtG for the spreadsheet of YFF statistics.

In my daily job, I use spreadsheet modelling to analyze the feasibility of investments. I was thinking "Hey, why not I do something useful for YFF using spreadsheet modelling too!" Let's check out my findings using spreadsheet modelling.

I tried to quantify the level of risk for every single player using the following formula:

[Average Points / Standard Deviation of Average Points = Average Points per Risk (PPR)]

Note: I have only included the players who played at least 19 games (half season)

Standard deviation is a useful tool to determine the volatility of the average points. For an example, say RvP who averaged 16 points per game with a standard deviation of 10 points, which means: average = 16, worst case = 6, best case 26. Get the picture?

Here are my findings on the players who scored at least average 8 points per game last season:

* I include Siggy anyway as he played only 1 game lesser than 19 games

Those players with PPR above 1.30 are very safe bets. The likelihood of scoring their respective average points is very high, and you would expect them to deliver at least some phantom points even if they don't score any goal or assist. In contrast, for those with PPR of 1.10x or below, you should not be too excited as they might be giving you nothing, but maybe doubling the average!

As you can see, Siggy, RVP, Bale, Suarez & Dempsey are safe bets for premium players (points guaranteed!) and you can sleep well with them in your team. Whereas if you have those PPR of close to 1.00 e.g. Rooney, VdV, K2, Mario or Dzeko in your team, they will either give you 2 points or 20+ points.

To analyze on each positions, I calculated the average PPR for all players who played at least 19 games. I found that defenders are the safest bets among all, whereas goalies are by far the worst position to invest.

As we can see, goalkeepers have an extremely low average PPR of 0.57, mainly due to the frequent negative points. What I'm trying to say is, don't spend too much of your budget on goalie, as even Petr Cech will be possibly giving you -10 points.

Defenders are always the best bets, especially when it comes to Double Week. I always opt for 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 in a Double Week as i prefer guaranteed points over volatility.

CONCLUSION:

I am not suggesting you to load all low risk players into your team. In the investment world, there's a famous quote called "High Risk High Return". What I'm trying to bring out is, we should diversify our players allocation strategy with a balanced risk management. Buying Edin Dzeko is never a bad idea, but you must understand that the risk involved is pretty high.

Also, I would like to clarify that the above analysis are based on historical data. Historical results do not guarantee future achievements (see Fernando Torres). So please apply the above statistics at your own RISK!