When to say 'when'

So...

Last week I "prospered" by picking Yakubu and Hoilett against Wigan. Three goals and a great lead coming out of Saturday's matches. But by the end of the fantasy week, while I still did well, Adebayor's brace and Herd's yellow card brought me back to the pack.

So...

Do I try to repeat the trick? In point of fact, do I double down?

Years ago I began picking a team based solely on whichever team was playing Derby County. That experiment usually out-scored my primary team in which I tried to follow the rules and hold discounts and select from across the League's match-ups. I remember that Adebayor (him again!) scored 2.6% of my team's points that season in Arsenal's two matches against the Rams.

So...

This week Wigan travel to Sunderland, who themselves haven't been great shakes. But surely they're as competent as Blackburn? And at home, surely they will be stingier than Rovers.

So...

Is four Black Cats too many?

Wes Brown is a shoe-in. He's been playing very well, is still relatively cheap, and you have to like Sunderland's chances for a second consecutive clean sheet.

Sessegnon comes in. He's been Sunderland's most dynamic player, and while Larsson is the team's high scorer, Sessegnon is a little more consistent and cheaper (at least in the Y! fantasy game).

Bendtner stays in the team from last week. He was a bit of a disappointment for the price last week, but if the goals are going to come - and we're betting that they will - surely he's involved. He's Sunderland's only fit and fully acclimatized striker, despite his habit of drifting deep and wide in search of the ball... like Adebayor is wont to do. ;-)

Now money and space is getting limited. As just mentioned, Larsson is probably too expensive. But reports are that Kieran Richardson may get a run-out in center-midfield, or even playing off Bendtner as a second striker. For those of you new to the blog, or just have better things to do with your lives, you have to know that I have a real soft spot when it comes to KRich. This dates back all the way to 2005 when KRich and Cerny (!) paid off handsomely for me in the last week of the season. Since then, I've probably been burned more than not with KRich, but whenever he is given a chance to play an attacking role against a bad team he usually responds. See his performance against Blackpool last season, or his England performace against the United States back in that magical summer of 2005.

So...

So, yeah... I'm buying KRich.

Now money is VERY tight. I'm looking for enablers now. That means the likes of Chris Herd (burned me last weekend and on the road), Hatem Ben Arfa (on the road against tough opposition and not a sure starter), or wait... who's this... Jack Colback!?!?

He's done fuck all this year, but he's also not dipped into the red. What more could you want from a spot holder? And he did hit the post in last weekend's match.

What do you think? Am I crazy to consider Colback? Am I crazy to consider him as the FIFTH Black Cat on my fantasy team this week? Is this the only way I'll learn a lesson?