We're back again with more predictions! It was another excellent week for the system, with 11 of the 20 teams within 0.75 goals of the prediction. Some games were spot on (see Norwich v QPR) and just a few were further off (see Wigan..?), but we managed to capture the trends quite well. The two offensive teams the model pointed out, Chelsea and Stoke, notched three goals apiece, making me very happy. I hope the consistent success specifically of the offenses highlighted gives the model a little bit of credence.
On to this week's predictions! It looks to be a big offensive week for two teams, as they will have nice lopsided encounters.
As always, the numbers in parentheses denote how the predicted score differs from the team's average.
Newcastle 1.64 (+0.15) -v- Chelsea 1.08 (-1.01)
Blackburn 1.22 (-0.19) -v- Swansea 1.17 (+0.27)
Man City 4.45 (+0.99) -v- Norwich 0.70 (-0.73)
QPR 1.41 (+0.25) -v- West Brom 0.97 (+0.02)
Tottenham 4.47 (+2.22) -v- Bolton 1.14 (-0.37)
Wigan 1.15 (+0.26) -v- Arsenal 2.16 (+0.10)
Aston Villa 1.06 (-0.15) -v- Man United 1.63 (-0.64)
Everton 1.75 (+0.45) -v- Stoke 0.72 (-0.22)
Wolves 0.94 (-0.04) -v- Sunderland 1.12 (-0.00)
Fulham 0.81 (-0.28) -v- Liverpool 0.96 (-0.37)
The offensive choices are simple this week, provided you can figure out who's on the field and who's off for City. Arsenal is not a horrible choice either, and I imagine everyone who can fit RvP will do so.
Last week's "rogue" prediction that Bolton would triumph over Everton came out backward (though the margin was quite small, so I'm not surprised). This week the Newcastle v Chelsea prediction seems a bit odd. We'll see how that one goes.. Best of luck with your picks!