FanPost

the "quality" table

Hey managers,

We have another game coming up tomorrow, but I guess I'm in a writing mood. I alluded to this a couple weeks ago, but I've been working on a system for calculating team strengths that takes into account which teams they've already played and which ones they haven't. I feel that's a crucial factor in improving the accuracy of the predictions. I've now tested the system quite a bit and I think it works, so my future predictions will make use of it. But since I have a list of the team strengths, I thought it would be interesting to look at what the league table would be if you took them into account. Below the jump you will find the table. Not a lot of surprises, but there are some big shifts in the relegation zone.

These "rankings" include games up to today (so only missing Chelsea v Man City from this week). Numbers show how this table is different from the real table.

1. Man City

2. Man United

3. Tottenham

4. Chelsea (+1)

5. Liverpool (+1)

6. Arsenal (-2)

7. Newcastle

8. Aston Villa (+1)

9. Swansea (+2)

10. Everton (+2)

11. Norwich (-1)

12. Sunderland (+4)

13. Fulham (+1)

14. Blackburn (+5)

15. Stoke (-7!)

16. Wolves (+1)

17. Bolton (+3)

18. QPR (-5)

19. West Brom (-4)

20. Wigan (-2)

Some surprises there, particularly (by my judgement) how high Blackburn find themselves. Stoke's drop by fully seven places is interesting as well. Either their schedule has been really cushy so far or they are just great at squeaking out one point wins (seems true enough). Keep in mind these numbers take into account goals only, not game outcomes, so if there are teams that score well but wind up on the losing end a lot, they may move up in this table compared to their true position. Obviously I'm not saying anything about how the table *should* be. This is mostly meant as a discussion piece and perhaps a source of hope for Blackburn fans and worry for Baggies fans.