The Week Ahead, Part 2 - Late Player Picks

I seem to be apologizing for delays a lot recently. Not a fun position to be in as an author but the plus side (about which you probably care little) is that my day job has been busy for all the right reasons (new business, new projects, etc.). In this sort of economy, you can never be thankful enough because things can turn on a dime and fortunes can go from excellent to miserable quite quickly. If this is too obvious a segue-way from my introduction to a discussion of Manchester United then I apologize, I try to make them clever and interesting but sometimes it doesn't quite come off.

Seriously though, who would have seen this coming for United? Consider this timeline:

• Early Summer - Incredible momentum coming off of a league title and appearance in the Champions League final with some seemingly strong new blood both in the squad (Chicharito, the twins, and Smalling) and getting experience elsewhere (Welbeck, Cleverley, etc.).
• Late Summer - Even more excitement as Cleverley shows well in pre-season and Ashley Young, DDG, and Phil Jones are added to the mix as potential superstars who are both young enough to have upside but ready to contribute now. First small warning - no veteran central midfielder brought it as insurance for Cleverley and the conglomeration of mediocrity that is Carrick/Park/Fletcher/Anderson/Old Giggs. No one pays attention because of all the other, seemingly much bigger positives.
• August - Not only going according to the script that SAF and the press wrote but even better as strong teams like Spurs and Arsenal are mowed down in the early going. Goals are flowing. The kids - especially Smalling, Jones, and Cleverley - are playing well AND things can only get better as Chicharito, Vidic and Rio get healthy. Second small warning - DDG lets in a few questionable goals from distance. People generally don't panic because SAF is SAF and DDG is young and can be allowed a few early blunders while United continue winning by comfortable margins.
• September - The month starts well enough with a 5-0 trouncing of Bolton but Cleverley goes off after 8 minutes but it is lost to some extent because a) United go on to crush Bolton; b) the draw to Benfica in mid-week is away; and c) they come back and beat Chelsea (which was still considered an accomplishment at that point in the season) the following weekend. Somehow the alarm bells were only ringing mildly as the month closed with an away draw against Stoke (with no away mid-week Champions League match to explain it away) and a home draw against Basel. The fact that people generally assumed that things would be OK is an incredible tribute to SAF and United's history.
• October - Things changed dramatically in October as United went from the free flowing, high-scoring team we expected when Rooney, Chicharito, Nani, and Young were brought together to a team to one that was scraping out goals against all but the weakest of teams (e.g., Aldershot Town and Otelul Galati). You figured they'd hit rock bottom much as Arsenal had when United routed them with the drubbing by City at Old Trafford. Fuel was given to that fire as United closed the month with a solid 1-0 victory at Everton. More Tribute: If Arsenal or Spurs or Liverpool had had this month, there would have been story after story about the Manager being sacked. I don't recall a single one saying that SAF might finally have lost it.
• Early November - The month started well but in retrospect that was probably as much down to the quality of the opposition than any improvement in United's performance. Home to Galati and Sunderland and away at Swansea padded point totals and, combined with Chelsea's more glaring struggles, pushed the spotlight away from the fact that United were well into their second month of playing mediocre football with nearly all of their first team healthy. Could Tom Cleverley really be THAT important to the reigning champions?
• Late November - Home draw with Benfica (and solid, but still mild concern about their place in their Champions League group), home draw with a Newcastle team missing Tiote, and a home draw with Crystal Palace in the Carling Cup was about as miserable a way as a month could possibly close. The mitigation was a) All United have to do is beat a Swiss team to advance, no problem; b) Newcastle has had a great early season and they only scored due to a questionable penalty; and c) they played second teamers against Palace. Somehow, amazingly, there weren't a raft of stories about the fact that United had been a shadow of their usual selves for a solid 2 and a half months - Rooney and Ashley Young have gone from world-beaters to being afterthoughts in the United attack - Chicharito is keeping them afloat with his timely and efficient scoring. AND EVERYONE WAS STILL HEALTHY AT THIS POINT.
• December - A potential rebound win against Villa is muted as Chicharito leaves early with a serious injury and Ferguson decides his best option to replace him is a second team winger (Valencia). That bad news is followed by a double dose of misery as United crash out of the Champions League to a Swiss team, seriously, a Swiss team when playing for their lives. Injury is added to insult as their most valuable player over the past two or three seasons is ruled out for the season with a torn ACL. (Rooney may be their most talented but Vidic is their most valuable and most consistent when healthy - especially when United are grinding out 1-0 wins). Despite things really crashing down around them, I only today saw my first "Could United finish outside of the Top Four?" column. Again, all credit to Ferguson for having such an incredible reputation that people aren't questioning him at all.

Forwards

The usual suspects - RvP, Suarez, Rooney, and Drogba as well as some more recently fashionable choices like K2, Ba, Aguero, Defoe, and Yakubu all seem incredibly steep given their sheer cost (RvP, Aguero), form (Suarez, Rooney), and long-term quality vs. recent form (K2, Ba, Defoe, and Yakubu). It seems like a lot of potential for disappointment if you're buying at retail. If you have big discounts, some of those players may make a lot of sense. If you're looking for more sensible alternatives then may I suggest:

• Shane Long - He's not CHEAP at 9.77 but he's been having a great season and he's playing at home against Wigan - 'nuff said.
• Luis Suarez - If you're looking for a recommendation on one of the above expensive guys, Suarez is the one I'd be buying at retail prices.
• Scott Sinclair - Despite the venom spewed this way in the TWA comments last weekend about Sinclair being a "mediocre player on a third rate team" (or something like that) he more than returned his value in a week when he didn't score. His price still isn't outrageous and he's playing at home against average competition (Fulham).
• Ivan Klasnic - Another match-up play but this one is coming off a modest week. Being back at home and playing at full strength against a mediocre Villa side puts him back in contention for some goals. Not a super-strong recommendation but a strong one none-the-less.
• Danny Welbeck - United starting forward, playing at home, against a team toward the bottom of the table, and priced under 8. Under ordinary circumstances, there wouldn't be much more that needed typing. Perhaps it is due to the opus I wrote above about United's doldrums but I'm not as convinced as I thought I'd be. There appears to be a mild chance that Berbs will make a return. It is unclear whether he will partner Rooney or partner Welbeck with Rooney remaining in midfield.