The Week Ahead: Fantasy EPL Player Picks for Match Week 8

Perhaps the hardest thing we do as fantasy managers is separate our overall perception of the teams we're selecting players from (e.g., Manchester City is likely to finish in the Top 3 while West Ham are mid-table at best) with specific things that should guide our fantasy selections (Manchester City and West Ham have conceded the exact same number of goals thus far this season).

The second hardest thing we do is divorce perceptions created in previous seasons like "Liverpool conceded the 3rd fewest goals in the Prem last season" or "Everton has an average offense and an extremely stout/organized defense" from the things that are emerging this season. In fact, Liverpool's defense is below average so far this season. For their part, Everton's defense is solid-but-not-spectacular but their attack is significantly better than average.

It is easy to say that "Manchester City are better than WBA and should be expected to win this weekend". As fantasy managers all that gets us is that we probably shouldn't pick the WBA keeper since to a fantasy manager that says to expect negative points for a loss and at least one goal against. What it doesn't tell us is what we should expect from elsewhere. Is City likely to get a clean sheet and increase the value of their defenders and Joe Hart? How about the WBA attackers? Are they unplayable because their opponent doesn't give up goals?

My point in all of this rambling is that while match-ups are important, it isn't necessarily the overall match-up we should be looking at. We should be looking at things like "West Ham is an average goal-scoring team at home and Southampton ships goals by the boatload on the road" and "Arsenal have given up the second fewest points on their travels so far this season and Norwich are tied for 3rd worst in home scoring". Those statements tell me that I should be interested in West Ham attackers and Arsenal defenders. As a counterpoint, West Ham's defense has been average at home and Southampton's attack has been average on the road doesn't seem quite so inviting.

I am not going to go through all of the permutations here for you but it is worthwhile to check on some of the details before you dive in on a particularly big purchase or go "all in" on a team that seems to have a big advantage. That big advantage in overall perception of quality might differ dramatically from what is likely to happen for your fantasy players.

Forwards

• Olivier Giroud/Lukas Podolski - This is a pick-your-favorite situation that could even be extended to include Gervinho (finally justified as being listed as a forward in the Yahoo game). There will be points from the Arsenal front line, you just have to guess right. For me, Giroud is the best combination of price and potential.
• Dimitar Berbatov - Assuming he's healthy, he's a great play at home against Aston Villa.
• Andy Carroll - Ricardo Vaz Te would have been the better choice here but he's out with an injury so if you want a Hammers forward Carroll is the guy (although Jarvis/Nolan are probably better choices in midfield if you're wary of too much WHU).
• Nikica Jelavic/Kevin Mirallas - They've both been producing and the match-up at QPR isn't bad at all - witness the Rs 7 goals against at home (and 1 for, just preparing you for later on with that bit).
• Bryan Ruiz - If Fulham's attack is healthy, this is a great option if you can't afford Berbs.
• Luis Suarez - You might be able to talk me into this one at home against Reading on the same logic that he killed Norwich but just remember your misery during the last match week before you pull the trigger at his 21+ price point.