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Week 17: Stats and Trends

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What does form and history tell us about this weeks fixtures when considering our fantasy picks?

Eveything is going Chelsea's way this season, even the big fella in the red suit is on their side.
Eveything is going Chelsea's way this season, even the big fella in the red suit is on their side.
Clive Rose/Getty Images

Before we move on to week 17, first up lets take a look at week 16's top 5 points scorers.

5th Christian Eriksen 25pts

4th David De Gea 26pts

3rd Tom Heaton 27pts

1st/2nd Robin Van Persie & Santis Cazorla 28pts

Olivier Giroud 22, Wilfried Bony, Harry Kane, James MaCarthur & Eden Hazard 21 and Steven Naismith 20 all came close in a week where once again players not in many of our shortlists did well.

Looking ahead to week 17 then and what do the statistics suggest as possibilities this weekend.

Manchester City v Crystal Palace

  • Man City have won their last five game and last four at home.
  • City have scored at least one goal in their last thirteen games.
  • The Eagles have won just one of the last ten (D4, L5)
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Palaces last 4 games.
  • City have won by a single goal margin in their last three home games.
  • The Champions have won 22 of the last 26 home games.

The Stats say home win then.   But and a big but most of those listed stats happened when City were able to field Sergio Aguero, Edin Dzeko, David Silva, Yaya Toure and Vincent Kompany.  Of that spine only Yaya if fully fit and match sharp with David Silva ready for his first start.  Combine this with the goals per game in the Eagles last four games perhaps makes this a further game City win by the odd goal than by a hatful.

Aston Villa v Manchester United

  • Villa have conceded at least one goal in 86% of their home games and at least one in their last six home games.
  • Man Utd have won six league games in a row.
  • The Red Devils average over 2.5 goals per game in their last five matches.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals in five of Villas last six League games.

The current Man Utd side continued to be a flawed side however there are clearly growing under LVG.  If we follow the guide there is a goal for Utd in this one.  RVP, Rooney and because I think he will get a start, Radamel Falcao will be the pick.

Hull  v Swansea City

  • Hull have not won in nine games.
  • 23% of Swansea's points have been won away from home.
  • Wilfried Bony has scored eight goals in his last ten league games.
  • Hull have failed to score in six of their last eight.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals in Hulls last three games.
  • Swansea have failed to win their last six away games.

The stats say Hull are in terrible shape and Swansea are poor away from home.  I think we all like an away win but this post is about looking at the information.  For that I guess we have to say a low scoring game with Mr Bont the only likely scorer.

Queens Park Rangers V West Bromwich Albion

  • WBA have scored just 20% of their goals away from home but have conceded just 35% of their goals away from home.
  • In eight home games Charlie Austin has had 31 shots with 14 on target.
  • QPR have scored at least 2 goals in their last six at home.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals in six of WBA last seven games.

Sounds like a home win doesn't it.  If freshness and fitness truley are a big advantage this time of season then well rested Charlie Austin is the man most likely to score for the home side.

Southampton v Everton

  • The Saints have lost their last four League games.
  • Southampton have scored 72% of their goals at home.
  • Dusan Tadic's missed penalty was the first Saints miss in 23 successive penalties, a run stretching back to Jim Magilton in 1997.
  • Southampton have failed to score in the first half in five of the last six leagues games scoring just once in this run.
  • In eight home games Graziano Pelle has had 43 shots but only 12 on target.
  • Everton have failed to score in the two games at St Marys since the Saints return to the Premier League.

First up the above stats don't tell you that Southampton will be missing their entire first choice central midfield due to injury and suspension.  A low scoring affair is the tip so blog favorite Ryan Bertrand will be popular.

Tottenham v Burnley

  • Danny Ings has scored or assisted six of Burnleys last seven League goals (four goals, 2 assists).
  • Harry Kane has scored four goals in his last five away games in all competitions.
  • Christian Eriksen's assist at Swansea was his first of the season.
  • Spurs have had over 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine games.
  • Burnley have failed to score in five of their last seven away games.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Burnleys last four games.

The goals scored in games involving these two contradict each other.  Lets go then with the poor Burnley goal record on the road as the stat that matters and pick the Spurs defence.  Kyle Walker is popular at a shade over 6m.

West Ham v Leicester

  • Leicester have lost four in a row.
  • The Foxes have lost their last six away from home.
  • The Hammers have won five of the last six home matches.
  • Bottom of the table Leicester have conceded at least two goals in the last four away games.
  • "chicken wing" Kevin Nolan has three goals in three games.
  • Stewart Downing has been involved in five goals in the last six (two goals and 3 assists)

Home win and home goals are suggested here.  Downing, Nolan, Diafra Sakho and of course at this time of year The Andy "Christmas Carroll.

Newcastle v Sunderland

  • Newcastle have won their last four home games.
  • The black cats have no win in their last six league games but have drawn five of those.
  • The Geordies have not beaten Sunderland in the last three home matches losing the last two by three goals to nil.
  • Sunderland have a five match unbeaten run v Newcastle (W3, D2).

A complete mix of stats. History favours Sunderland while form Newcastle.  One thing current is neither have been beaten often recently in the league so perhaps a tight game favouring the sides defence.  With home advantage Steven Taylor at 4m Paul Drummett at 7ish offer value at cheap prices.

Liverpool v Arsenal

  • Arsenal have scored at least once in their last nine games.
  • Liverpool have won just two of the last fourteen league meetings.
  • There have been four 90th minute or later goals in the last six at Anfield between the sides.
  • Santi Cazorla has scored three goals in his last two games after failing to score in the previous 27 League games.
  • Mario Balotelli has had more shots (42 including block shots) than any other player without a goal in the Premier League.

Considering Liverpool's form and the list above the Gunners should score and may fancy their chances of victory.  Alexis Sanchez, Giroud and penalty taker Santa sorry Santi himself may tempt you.

Stoke v Chelsea

  • Stoke have just five points from their last seven games.
  • Chelsea average 14.6 shots per away game with 5.1 on average on target.
  • Stoke have conceded ten goals in the last five home games.

Looks good for the Chelsea attack.  Obviously Diego Costa and penalty taker and due an away league goal Eden Hazard are the picks to match the stats.

So there you have it.  Will the stats and trends offer us the answers to week 17's picks or do they muddy the waters even more for your side.

Stall