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Week 18 Pre Deadline Chat - Stats and Trends

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After too much food lets have too much Football, everyone happy with that?

He is the man on Boxing day but will he start this year?
He is the man on Boxing day but will he start this year?
Michael Regan/Getty Images

The previous couple weeks stats and trends have been a good guide to positive scoring players picks.  This week with the high chances of rotation they may not be as much a guide but worth considering nonetheless.

Burnley v Liverpool

  • The reds have scored just 2 goals from 44 shots in their last three Premier League games.
  • No team 10th at Christmas has finished higher than 6th  by the seasons end.
  • In the last 14 games Liverpool games have averaged over 2.5 goals.
  • In the last 4 games Burley have hosted the games average under 2.5 goals per game.
  • Danny Ings has had 29 shots on goal in the 8 home games he has played this season.

Conclusion

A mix of stats here but it seems Liverpool's new fluid front three of Raheem Sterling, Adam Lallana and Philippe Coutinho and showing signs of last season's multi efforts on goal.  So one of the two streaks will end.  I'm going to go with the weakness of Pools defensive and increased danger going forward combining to make the over 2.5 goals the outcome.  With Pool not playing again until Monday they may go as close to full strength as possible while Burnley will wish to treat their home fans with the same.

Everton v Stoke

  • Everton have scored at least 2 goals in 12 of their last 14 home league games.
  • The toffees are unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • Last season finished 4-0 to Everton with 2 Gareth Barry assist and a goal each for the King troll Romelu Lukaku and Seamus Coleman.
  • Stoke have conceded in their last 11 league games a league high.
  • Gareth Barry has scored 4 of his 50 league goals on Boxing day.

Conclusion

Having watched their last two games Everton have not convinced but the Stats say home win and maybe a clear one.  After losing so clearly last time I assume Martinez will play a strong side so King Troll and penalty king Leighton Baines could interest.

Crystal Palace v Southampton

  • The last 6 Southampton away games have seen under 2.5 goals scored.
  • The Eagles have 1 win in their last 11 League games.
  • Miles Jedinak has been fouled 21 times and has intercepted the ball 38 times in the 8 homes games a league high.
  • The Saints have won every game that that have scored first in this season.
  • Last season the Saints won 1-0 with a winner from Jay Rodriguez.

Conclusions

Palace will go full strength in a game they will feel they can win.  Blog fan CPFC advised they do not do well on Boxing day traditionally but I think they can win this one and that Bolasie goal is overdue.  The stats say pick captain Jedinak

Leicester City V Tottenham

  • 9 of the last 10 Spurs games have seen over 2.5 goals.
  • The Foxes have lost 9 of their last 10 games.
  • Christian Eriksen has 23 attempts on goal in the 8 away games he has played.
  • Erik Lamela has committed 16 fouls in the 8 away games played.
  • Harry Kane has scored in back to back fixtures.

Conclusions

With Spurs facing Man Utd two days later at the lane I'm in the camp wondering if Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane and co may be rotated.  If they start they stats say they are the picks.

Chelsea v West Ham United

  • Chelsea have won the last 8 home games in the league.
  • During those games they have scored at least 2 goals per game.
  • In the last 6 at home Chelsea have 5 clean sheets.
  • Chelsea have scored 16 of their 20 goals at home from open play.
  • Andy Carroll averages 5 efforts on goals away from home.
  • Stewart Downing has 4 assists in 7 away games.
  • Cesc Fabregas has 6 assists in 7 home games played.
  • Last season they battled to a 0-0 draw.

Conclusions

Chelsea played Monday night and I'm pretty sure Jose is not happy about it.  Certain rotation in this game for both sides.  A low scoring affair may happen again based on the stats so defenders and keepers may hold the value in this one.

Manchester United v Newcastle

  • The Red Devils have won 7 of their last 8 home league games.
  • In 13 of the last 16 games at Old Trafford utds games average over 2.5 goals.
  • Utd have scored at least 2 goals in the last 3 games at home.
  • Newcastle won at OT last season 1-0.  The winner came from Yohan Cabaye

Conclusions

On the stats and form a comfortable home win.  The hard parts knowing just who Utd will start with a tricky trip to White Hart Lane to follow two days later.  I think we may see Di Maria play no more than 60mins and perhaps just the 20 min second half cameo again.  My gut says James Wilson starts this one with either RVP or Falcao.    Dare I risk the pick?

Sunderland v Hull

  • Hull have failed to score in 7 of the last 9.
  • In the last four games the tigers has played there has been under 2.5 goals.
  • In 6 of the last 7 Sunderland games under 2.5 goals have been scored.
  • Costel Pantilimon averages 4.5 saves per home game.
  • Sunderland allows an average of 14.9 shot son their goals in homes games, only QPR are worse (15.4).
  • Hull won last seasons game 2-0 with goals from Shane Long and Nikica Jelavic.

Conclusions

On paper a low scoring game and the 1-0. 0-1 or 0-0 looks the outcome.   Defenders again then but with the stats showing the efforts Sunderland allow on goal perhaps those who BD Pantilimon should stick with him.

Swansea v Aston Villa

  • The last 5 aways for Villa have seen all of them finish under 2.5 goals.
  • Gylfi Sigurdsson has 7 assists in 9 homes games the league high.
  • Wilfried Bony averages 4.6 effort at goal per game at home.
  • Gabby Agbonlahor was sent off for the first time in 289 Premier League games last time out against Man Utd.
  • Swansea crushed the Villains last season 4-1.  Goals from Bony (2), Shelvey and Hernandez with Agbonlahor scoring for Villa.

Conclusions

Villa do not have the squad to be resting players and for me have the bunch of old school hard working players need for the Christmas period.  Always better away from home you could go with the in form Christian Benteke but the stats suggest if they start and it is an IF they Bony and Siggy are your picks.


West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City

  • City have won 6 league games in a row.
  • City have kept 3 clean sheets in a row.
  • The Champions average 17.7 efforts on goal in away games which is a league high (5.8 on target).
  • Yaya Toure averages 3.4 efforts on goal in away games with 27 in total.
  • City have scored in 14 straight games a league high.
  • In 8 home games Craig Dawson has 11 blocked shots a league high.
  • Man City won the fixture 3-2 last season.  Kun with 1 and Yaya Toure with a brace against a Pantilimon OG and Anichebe for WBA.


Conclusions
Stats say go with the form side and the man who likes to shoot away from home more that at home Yaya Toure.  He also holds pens and direct free kicks.  If phantoms are your thing then Mr Dawson is sure to add to his BS record.

Arsenal v Queens Park Rangers

  • QPR have lost the last 9 away games.
  • Rangers have conceded at least 2 in 7 of their 8 away.
  • Arsenal has 1 defeat in the last 26 at home.
  • Arsenal average 20.1 effort on goal per home game a league high (7.5 on target)
  • Arsenal allow an average of 7.9 effort on their goal in home games which is the best in the league.
  • Alexis Sanchez has had 26 efforts on goal in 8 home games.
  • Theo Walcott has scored more goal on boxing day than any other current Premier League player.


Conclusions


Plumb fixture would normally see us loading up on the Gunners attack.  However, just two days later they head to West Ham so You have to think either or both Alexis Sanchez/Danny Welbeck get a breather in this one.  Arsenal should still have enough to beat a side that have lost every away game and holding Sanchez/Welbeck on the bench means they can always win it late if they need to.  I also see Charlie Austin rested for this one.

Frankly the guessing games on who will play is a nightmare.

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