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Week 22: Stats and Trends

You know what your head and your heart says for week 22, what does the facts say are the likely outcomes?

Ken told you to buy him weeks ago didn't he, but did you listen?
Ken told you to buy him weeks ago didn't he, but did you listen?
Jamie McDonald/Getty Images

Week 22 is the last before a second break for FA cup fixtures.  Man Utd, Man City and Spurs will be looking to get back to winning ways but do the stats suggest they will?  Lets find out as we give you this weeks stats and trends.

Aston Villa v Liverpool

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 5 games.
  • Villa have not scored in 4 games.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals in Villas last 6 games.
  • Villa have drawn 3 in a row at home.
  • Liverpool has lost just 1 of their last 16 games at Villa Park in all competitions.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 5 games.
  • Villa average 10.6 shots on their opponent’s goal in home games, only Sunderland are worse.

What the stats say

They suggest a Liverpool win here with both history and recent form pointing that way.  You could look at defensive cover from Liverpool with Villa without a goal in 4 but those type of runs don't normally go as many games as that, plus can you really trust the Liverpool backline?

If we are looking for a pool winner then we have to choose a pool goalscorer and while the well-rested Raheem Sterling will get many peoples vote.  But I thought we saw the progress with Lazar Markovic is making in the game at Sunderland.  With Villa pretty much a copy of the Sunderland side style and tactics wise I will recommend the youngster to go back to back with double digit scores.

Burnley v Crystal Palace

  • Palace have failed to score in 4 away games in a row.
  • Palace have failed to win in the last 8 away games.
  • Burnley has seen 6 of their last 7 home games finish with under 2.5 goals.
  • Burnley have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 games.

What the stats say

Issue here is that although the players largely remain the same Palace have new manager effect to factor in.  However this article is only about the stats which tell us we have a good chance of a low scoring game and home win.

If so Kieran Trippier seems the pick.  Phantom points scorer, clean sheet chance and overdue an assist or two.

Leicester v Stoke

  • Leicester are unbeaten in 5 games against Stoke.
  • Of 137 shots in home game Leicester have just 40 on target including 12 goals.
  • In their away games Stoke have had 108 shots with just 34 on target including 10 goals.

What the stats say

Low scoring affair again then.  Maybe you could even make a case for holding Hammer in goal.

Queens Park Rangers v Manchester United

  • Man Utd have drawn their last 3 away games.
  • Utd have won their last 6 games against QPR in all competitions and kept 5 clean sheets in the
  • sequence.
  • QPR are unbeaten in 7 home games.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Utd's last 3 away from home.
  • QPR have allowed an average of 16 shots on their goal home and away which is a league high.
  • QPR average 17.9 shots on the opposition goal in home games, only Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City average more.
  • Charlie Austin has 52 shots on goal in home games, only Graziano Pelle has more with 53.

What the stats say

Here we have a side powerful at home against one who have struggled on their travels.  Utd have only two away wins at Southampton and Arsenal and in both of those they should have been beaten out of sight.  At no point this season have they dominated a side away from Old Trafford.  To add to the information, Utd have scored just 6 times in the last 6 away games 12 in all 10.

David De Gea will be busy and the form attacker in the rangers side is England hopeful Austin.  Along with penalty duties and the unsure Utd back line Austin is the stats pick in this one.

Swansea v Chelsea

  • There has been under 2.5 goals in 5 of Chelsea's last 6 games.
  • But in those 6 games Chelsea have scored 2 goals in 5 of them.
  • Chelsea have only lost 2 of their last 24 league games.
  • Chelsea have conceded 16 times in their 11  away games.
  • Chelsea have won their last 4 games against Swansea in all competitions.
  • Swansea have failed to win in their last 3 games.
  • Swansea have only lost twice at home this season.
  • Gylfi Sigurdsson has 7 assists in home games which is a league high.
  • Cesc Fabregas has 8 assists away from home, a league high.

What the stats say

Chelsea defense have not held up in away games but their attack has.   Attacking picks rule then.

Let's go for Cesc to continue his assist run (assuming he is back from the Caribbean in time, you have been warned readers).

Tottenham v Sunderland

  • Sunderland have failed to win in 10 of their last 11 games.
  • Spurs are unbeaten in their last 5 at home.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals in 12 of Spurs last 14 games.
  • Spurs have won 10 of the last 12 games against Sunderland at White Hart Lane in all competitions.

What the stats say

Tottenham look a certain home win according to our information and with the goals stats in their last 14 league games we want to cover their attackers.

Harry Kane is the clear winner here.  In the form of his life and showing himself to be a better player than many had realised.  Obvious pick then.

Also a note for a midfield option Nacer Chadli.  He has had a fine goalscoring season despite lacking consistency on the fantasy points front.  Against Palace he almost played as support striker so look for a good return from him this week.

Newcastle v Southampton

  • 7 of the Saints last 8 away games have had under 2.5 goals in them.
  • Newcastle have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 4 games.
  • The Magpies are unbeaten in 9 home matches against the Saints.
  • Southampton are unbeaten in 5 league games.

What the stats say

Saint defence which is still the best defence in the league.  The old song "and no you're gonna believe us" is in my head.

While many are on Ryan Bertrand by his early season price those looking to join up should consider bargain Florin Gardos.  He was excellent at Old Trafford and for under 3m offers you a great clean sheet chance this week.

West Ham v Hull

  • Hull have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away games.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals in 5 of West Ham's last 6 league games.
  • Hull have failed to win in 9 of their last 10 away games.
  • Hull average just 8.8 shots on the opposition goal in away games, this is a league low.

What the stats say

Home win by 1 or 2-0.

Any of the West Ham defence.  Of those keeper Adrian is the cheapest and takes the pick.

Manchester City v Arsenal

  • City have won 6 of the last 7 home games.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals in 6 of Arsenals last 7 games.
  • The Gunners have scored at least 2 in 6 of their last 7 games.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals in the Champions last 3 home games.
  • City average 18.4 shots on the opponent's goals at home, only Arsenal average more.
  • Alexis Sanchez has 29 shots on goal in 10 away games.  Only Kun has done better with 43.

What the stats say

Fun and more fun.  These two are the most attacking sides in the league and neither are particularly great at defending.

The obvious pick is Kun Aguero

Everton v West Bromwich Albion

  • There has been under 2.5 goals in 5 of WBA last 6 away league games.
  • Everton have no win in 5 league games.
  • WBA have not won in their last 5 away games.
  • Everton have conceded 34 goals this season only QPR are worse.

What the stats say

Two sides not in decent form.  Everton took a further psychological blow losing on pens to West Ham in the cup.  Meanwhile WBA won the first game under Tony Pulis.

Evertons defensive problems continue so with that in mind a stab at a WBA player to score.  Saido Berahino fancies a move and is on pens, so is the most motivated and most likely.

So has any of that info influenced you picks for this week?  Lets us know.