Week 27 Premier League Stats and Trends

Week 27 and a smaller pool of games to pick from. It seem one of those weeks where the obvious picks are just not there. Lets see if some stats can help us.

West Ham United v Crystal Palace

• The Hammers have drawn their last three league games.
• In their last 6 always Palace have conceded just 5 goals, they have scored just 4.
• Stewart Downing averages 1.8 shots per game in home fixtures.
• In 11 away games Jason Puncheon has 2 goals, 3 assists and averages 2 shots per game.
• Palace have 7 goals from open play and 7 from set pieces in their 14 away games.
• Diafra Sakho has 5 goals and 1 assist and averages 2.2 shots per game in 8 league games at Upton Park.
• The Eagles average 34% possession away from home and just 3.1 shots on target per game.
• At home the Hammers average 4.3 shots on target per game and 47% possession.

Conclusions

Well it seems there will be plenty of huff and puff in this one with both sides giving the ball away. Someone will go over their season average in possession and whichever team that is may increase the number of shots as well. West Ham fans are once again unhappy with big Sam so an early goal will be important for them. Ex Hammer boss Alan Pardew may smell a chance to take advantage. The obvious Aaron Creswell/Sakho for West Ham and perhaps away day favourite Jason Puncheon on the break for Palace.

Burnley v Swansea

• Burnley have failed to win in 9 of their last 10 league games.
• There has been over 2.5 goals in Burnleys last 3 home games.
• Danny Ings has 5 goals and 3 assists in 12 home games.
• Ings averages 3.4 shots per game at home.
• Gylfi Sigurdsson has played 9 away games. In that run he has 2 goals and 1 assist.

Conclusions

Danny Ings stats and form suggest he is a great pick this week.

Manchester United v Sunderland

• Sunderland last 6 aways reads 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses.
• In that run of 6 games Sunderland have conceded just 6 goals and scored 5.
• Utds last 6 homes reads, 5 wins and 1 loss, 14 goals scored 5 conceded.
• The Red Devils average 13 shots on goal per home game and 62% possession.
• Angel Di Maria averages 3.4 shots per game and has scored 2, assisted 4 in 9 home games.
• Wayne Rooney has 7 goals and 2 assists in 10 home games.
• Falcao has played 5 home games, scoring 2 and assisting 3. Of the 5 games played 4 have been as a substitute.

Conclusions

Sunderland defensive stats added to their rep for causing the big boys problems may warn you off Utds attacking dangers. However both Rooney and Falcao have done well in home games so seem the most likely match winners. Sunderland goal threat stands out and whilst you will be lacking confidence in them, perhaps the Red Devil back four/Keeper are value this week (damm even typing that made me uncomfortable).

Newcastle v Aston Villa

• Villa have failed to score in 9 of their 11 away games.
• In their last 6 away's Villa have scored 1 and conceded 10.
• In the magpies last 6 homes they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses scoring 10, conceding 10.
• Newcastle average 14.6 shot per game at home and 4.3 on target.
• Villa have a surprising 49% possession away from home (45% at home)

Conclusions

Villa didn't get the new manager win last time out against an injury ravaged Stoke. Newcastle took a pounding at Man City. Who reacts best is the pick here. Villa are still best suited to the counter attack and will have to play that way in this one.

Stoke City v Hull

• Hull have conceded the most goals from outside the box in the league with 11.
• In 7 home games Victor Moses averages 3 shots per game but has just the 1 goal.
• Hull have failed to win in 11 of their last 12 away games.
• Stoke have 1 clean sheet in 7 league games.
• In the last 6 aways Hull have scored 5 and conceded 9
• In 3 home appearances Stephen Ireland has 2 assists

Conclusions

Moses all the way but can he score in back to back games? Ireland has been effective when given the chance recently. At 28 maybe the penny has dropped. He should start and is a real dark horse pick.

West Bromwich Albion v Southampton

• Grazinao Pelle has the most shots off target this season with 47.
• The return fixture was a 0-0 draw.
• The Saints have 3 clean sheets in a row against WBA.
• WBA haven't drawn in their last 6 homes, Saints haven't drawn in their last 6 always.
• In the last 10 aways Saints games have had under 2.5 goals in 8 of them.
• Saints have won 4 away games in a row.
• Sadio Mane averages 2.7 shots per game away from home.

Conclusions

Low scoring affair making come backing Ryan Bertrand a popular pick. Manes impressive effort on goal make him the most likely match winner.

Liverpool v Manchester City

• Sergio Aguero has attempted the most shots in the Premier League this season with 90.
• Liverpool have lost none of their last 6 home games winning 3.
• City have lost none of their last 6 away games, winning 4.
• Pool have 5 clean sheets in 6 games.
• City have lost just once in the last 17 games.
• Pool have scored at least 2 goals in the last 5 home games.
• City have scored 9 goals in their last 2 fixtures.

Conclusions

Two hard to beat sides with the home side in better form. Two sides coming off midweek European losses looking to bounce back. City needing to close the gap on Chelsea so will go on the attack against a pool defence that's stats are better than what you see with the naked eye. Space behind will suit Raheem Sterling, Philippe Coutinho and Daniel Sturridge on the break. As usual in this fixture expect goals.

Arsenal v Everton

• Arsenal have won 6 in a row at home.
• Everton have lost 6 of their last 7 away games.
• There has been under 2.5 goals in Evertons last 3 aways.
• In 10 home games Alexis Sanchez has 8 goals, 6 assists and averages 3.5 shots per game.
• Romelu Lukaku averages 2.6 shots and has 3 goals in 11 away games.

Conclusions

Stats say home win and Sanchez to star.

Does any of the above influence your picks this week? Have you found any others that would be of interest to the community?

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