Week 24: Stats and Trends

So here we go with week 24.  Sani has given you the player picks options, lets see what the stats and trends suggest are the right plays this weekend.

Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal

• Arsenal have scored at least 2 goal in 8 of their last 9 games.
• The Gunners have kept 3 Premier League clean sheets in a row.
• Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 league games.
• Spurs are unbeaten in 6 home games.
• There has been over 2.5 goals in 15 of spurs last 16 games.
• Harry Kane averages 2.6 shots per game at home where he has scored 3 goals in 7.
• Santi Cazorla has 3 goals and 4 assists in 11 away games Alexis Sanchez has 4 goals and 1 assist.
• Emmanuel Adebayor has scored 10 goals in north london derbies, the most in the Premier League history.

Well if we follow the information we should expect goals and plenty of efforts on goals.  You cant ignore the form of Cazora and Kane and they are the picks.

Aston Villa v Chelsea

• Villa have failed to score in the last 6 league games.
• Chelsea have lost just 2 of their last 26 league games.
• There has been under 2.5 goals in Villa's last 4 home games.
• Eden Hazard has 2 goals, 2 assist and averages 2 shots per game away from home.
• Cesc Fabregas has a league high 9 assists in away games.

With Cesc ruled out the stats suggest one of those typical Jose 1 or 2-0 wins.  Branislav Ivanovic has been tipped so often this season to top a clean sheet with a goal and here is one more chance.

Leicester City v Crystal Palace

• Riyad Mahrez averages 3.1 shots per game at home but has the just 1 goal.
• Miles Jedinak averages 3.9 tackles and 3.4 interceptions away from home.
• The Jedi also has 3 away goals and averages a shot per game when not at Selhurst Park.
• Leicester have lost 4 of the last 6 home games.
• The Eagles have lost just 1 on their last 6 aways.
• Puncheon has scored 18, 14 and 11 fantasy points in his last 3

The trends say an away win so we need a goalscorer.  Jason Puncheon is the form horse for that task.

Manchester City v Hull City

• The tigers have failed to score in 7 of the last 9 league games.
• Hull have lost their last 3.
• There has been under 2.5 goals in City's last 3 games.
• Kun Aguero has 6 goals, no assists and averages 4.5 shots per game in this season's home games.
• David Silva averages 1.4 shots per game at home where he has 3 goals in 8 games.
• Silva also averages 1.9 fouls per home games, the highest of any city player.

Simple, pick Kun but will anyone not?

Queens Park Rangers v Southampton

• Rangers have lost the last 3 league games.
• Saints have won the last three way games in the league.
• In QPR's last 3 homes there has been under 2.5 goals.
• QPR have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 games.
• Graziano Pelle averages 2.4 shots per game away from home but has only 1 away goal.
• Charlie Austin averages 4.8 shots per game at home.  At home he has 9 goals and 2 assists.
• James Ward-Prowse has 4 assists away from St Marys.

The stats suggests a fun game and with no manager QPR may be even looser in play.  With the saints certain to score take your pick of Pelle, Tadic or my tip Sadio Mane.

Swansea v Sunderland

• Patrick Van Aanholt has 2 assists in 6 away games.
• Connor Wickham averages 2.5 shots per game away from home.
• Swansea have conceded 9 goals in their last 6 homes.
• Sunderland have conceded 9 goals in their last 6 aways.
• The reverse fixture finished 0-0

A tight game on paper so lets follow last weeks hero PVA and see if he can add to either his clean sheet or assist stats.

Everton v Liverpool

• Liverpool have 3 clean sheets in a row in the Premier League.
• There has been under 2.5 goals in Everton last 4 league games.
• There has been under 2.5 goals in Liverpool's last 3 away games.
• The reds have 5 of their last 6 league games.
• Romelu Lukaku averages 3.2 shots per home game where he has 4 goals in 10 games.
• Raheem Sterling has 3 goals 2 assists and 2 shots per game away from home.
• Steven Gerrard has 9 goals in 29 merseyside derbies.
• Daniel Sturridge averages 5 shots per game away from only 2 games, wow.

A low scoring affair is the trend.  Perhaps take a gamble on Leighton Baines on the most likely. defensive scorer or Stevie G to score a goal or two in his final derby.

Burnley v West Bromwich Albion

• WBA have won none of their last 6 away games.
• There has been under 2.5 goals in 6 of WBA last 7 away games.
• Danny Ings averages 3.5 shots per home and has 4 goals and 2 assists.
• WBA beat Burnley 4-0 in the reverse fixture with Saido Berahino scoring twice.

Again the defence rules.  Kieran Trippier with 18 and 12pts in his last two may tempt.  However, players often get a taste for scoring against a certain opponent, perhaps Berahino, post transfer window closing can score again.

Newcastle United v Stoke City

• There has been over 2.5 goals in 5 of Newcastle's last 6 games.
• The magpies have conceded at least 2 goal in the last 3 home games.
• Stoke have won the last two meetings 1-0.
• Remy Cabella has scored 15, 11 and 20 fantasy points in his last 3 games.

If the trend is someone to score against Newcastle, you could try Victor Moses for a second week in a row.  After shooting plenty against QPR he may have spent the week practising hitting the target.

West Ham United v Manchester United

• There has been under 2.5 goals in Utd's last 4 aways.
• The Red Devils have lost just 1 in their last 13.
• West Ham have lost just 1 of their last 10 home games.
• Angel Di Maria average 2.3 shots per game, RVP 2.3, Wayne Rooney 1.4 and Falcao 1.8 playing  away from home.
• Angel Di Maria has scored just once away from home.

A tight defensive game is suggested.  Playing your 1m Aaron Cresswell may provide a decent return one more.

Do any of these stats and trends tempt you one way or the other?

Stall