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Week 29 Premier League Stats & Trends

Let's take a look at the fixtures to determine the history and developing trends that could help tip you in one direction over another as you finalize your fantasy teams for the weekend.

Theo Walcott LOVES playing against West Ham...Question is, will he get the start?
Theo Walcott LOVES playing against West Ham...Question is, will he get the start?
Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

Crystal Palace v. Queens Park Rangers

  • These teams played to a scoreless draw in the reverse fixture at Loftus Road
  • QPR have not lost to Palace in their last 7 meetings in all competitions
  • Palace have not kept a clean sheet at Selhurst Park in their last 10 EPL matches
  • QPR have conceded at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 away matches in the league
  • Alan Pardew has earned more points than Neal Warnock in half the games
  • QPR have allowed 160 shots on target this season, more than any other EPL team

The statistics don't look as good for Crystal Palace as I was expecting, and I'm sure that's the case for many of you as well. On the back of encouraging performances against Arsenal and Tottenham in their last two matches, Rangers will be eager to make their positive play count, but they'll have to overcome their poor road form to do so. The Alan Pardew effect could help Palace to overcome their past goal-shy results against QPR, but perhaps a clean sheet isn't as sure a bet as it at first seemed.

Arsenal v. West Ham United

  • The Gunners have won their last 9 matches against The Hammers (all comps)
  • West Ham have not won any of their last 6 away matches in the Premier League
  • Theo Walcott has tallied 5 goals and 3 assists in his last 4 games against West Ham
  • Sam Allardyce has never won an away match against Arsenal in his career
  • Arsenal have not lost a London derby match at the Emirates in their last 12 matches
  • West Ham have scored the most headed Premier League goals this season with 17

I talked briefly in this week's preview about mid-table teams looking to their summer holidays a bit early, and West Ham definitely seem to be in that mindset of late. The stats lean heavily in Arsenal's favor, so this may be the best place to invest this week if you can afford it. If Walcott gets the start, he's almost certain to make an impact, but if not Olivier Giroud has scored 8 goals in his last 10 starts and has also notched 4 goals in 4 games against the Hammers.

Leicester City v. Hull City

  • The Foxes have only scored 3 goals in their last 8 home matches in the league
  • Hull City have won only one of their last 13 away matches in the Premier League
  • Leicester have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 EPL matches
  • Dame N'Doye has scored in each of his 3 starts since his January transfer to Hull
  • There have been 5 red cards in the last 6 meetings between these clubs
  • Leicester's last league victory was the 1-0 result against Villa on January 10

Two out-of-form clubs in desperate need of points to bolster their survival hopes. This has historically been a testy encounter, and the reverse fixture was no different, with each side seeing a player sent off. Neither side is particularly effective at scoring goals or defending them, so unless you have a hunch (or N'Doye at discount), it's probably best to avoid investing too heavily here.

Sunderland v. Aston Villa

  • Sunderland has recorded just 1 win in their last 10 Premier League matches
  • Aston Villa has not lost against Sunderland in their last 7 matches (all comps)
  • The Black Cats have scored only 1 goal against Aston Villa in 6 matches
  • Aston Villa have gone 10 hours of game time without scoring an away goal
  • The last 12 meetings between these two clubs has produced 7 red cards
  • Gabriel Agbonlahor has scored 3 goals in his last 4 matches against Sunderland

Another bottom-of-the-table encounter that could have massive implications on the relegation battle. The home side over the past 6 meetings has had trouble scoring for whatever reason, so perhaps the fact that Villa are away won't be too much of a detriment to their hopes in this one, especially after their inspired FA Cup victory. A 0-0 or 1-0 scoreline looks most likely here, so if you can pick the winner you're likely looking at a clean sheet to go with the 3 points.

West Bromwich Albion v. Stoke City

  • West Brom have lost each of their last 5 matches against Stoke
  • Stoke have kept 8 clean sheets in their last 11 matches against the Baggies
  • Saido Berahino has scored 3 goals in his last 4 Premier League matches
  • Stoke have won their last 3 matches, their longest winning streak this season
  • West Brom have kept 5 clean sheets since Tony Pulis joined on January 1
  • Mame Biram Diouf has scored 3 times against West Brom in just 2 matches

The Potters have the historical advantage in this fixture, but they'll have to get past their old manager Tony Pulis to keep their impressive run going against the Baggies. Mark Hughes has his men in top form at the moment, but with their last victory taking them past the 40-point mark, will we see them ease off?

Burnley v. Manchester City

  • Burnley have not won in their last 7 Premier League matches
  • City have recorded 8 wins and 5 draws in their last 13 meetings with Burnley
  • In 14 matches at Turf Moor this season, Burnley have managed just 13 goals
  • City have scored 17 goals in their last 4 matches against Burnley (all comps)
  • Burnley came from 2-0 down to draw with City at the Etihad earlier this season
  • Yaya Toure has not recorded a goal or assist since returning from AFCON

This should be a banker for City, but Burnley have proven to be no easy task having made it difficult on City, Chelsea and United this season. Still, it's hard to see Sergio Aguero putting up another 5-point fantasy performance, especially considering the champions' scoring record against the Clarets recently. Expect the Manchester club to go for it with Chelsea potentially facing fatigue after their extra-time defeat to PSG on Wednesday.

Chelsea v. Southampton

  • Chelsea have kept 16 clean sheets in their last 21 matches at Stamford Bridge
  • The Saints have conceded the fewest league goals (20); Chelsea are second (22)
  • The Blues are the only Premier League team not to have lost at home this season
  • Southampton are the only side not to have conceded an EPL penalty this season
  • Chelsea have only scored once in their past 3 home matches (1 Win, 2 Draws)
  • Sadio Mane has scored in 5 of his last 7 appearances for Southampton

The Premier League's stingiest defenses face off in the reverse of the 1-1 draw from earlier in the season that saw a grand total of 2 shots on target in the match (that's for both teams - both shots resulted in goals). Diego Costa and company have been kept quiet at home of late, but could be out for blood after their exit from the Champions League, if fatigue doesn't play a role in their performance. Southampton may see this as one of their last chances to keep pace in the battle for the Top 4.

Everton v. Newcastle

  • The Toffees have drawn their last 4 league matches at Goodison Park
  • John Carver has won only 2 of his 10 matches in charge of Newcastle
  • Everton have conceded the most goals due to individual errors (14)
  • Newcastle have won only 3 of their 14 EPL away games this season
  • Romelu Lukaku has scored 4 goals in 5 appearances against Newcastle
  • Daryl Janmaat is the only Newcastle player with more than 175 points (220)

Everton haven't looked like winning a match comfortably in a long time, but this could be their chance with Newcastle's leading scorer Papiss Cisse suspended and doubts over two of their better players in Jack Colback and Remy Cabella. Leighton Baines should be back to full fitness for this one and, while expensive, has the opportunity to remind fantasy managers that he's still a worthwhile investment on his day. Tim Howard's bargain basement price could help you afford Baines if you're a gambler, but too much investment in the Toffees could prove hazardous to your team.

Manchester United v. Tottenham Hotspur

  • The Red Devils have not won against Spurs in their last 5 meetings (3D, 2L)
  • Spurs have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 12 away league matches
  • United have won 11 of their last 13 matches in the Premier League
  • Tottenham have scored 2 or more goals in their last 7 league matches
  • Wayne Rooney has scored 7 goals in his last 8 starts against Tottenham
  • Harry Kane has scored in 6 consecutive Premier League away matches

After years of United dominance, Tottenham have gotten the better of this fixture recently. Harry Kane will be doing his best to extend his team's undefeated streak against United going, and will also be eager to add another match to his consecutive away goals streak as he attempts to chase the 9-game record held by Robin van Persie. Rooney's good goal scoring record against Spurs may be cause for concern for Pochettino and company, as the England man could line up in attack with RVP injured and former Ballon D'or nominee Radamel Falcao currently lining up for the U21s.

Swansea City v. Liverpool

  • Swansea have recorded 7 of their 11 league victories at Liberty Stadium
  • Liverpool lead the league form table, having lost only one match in 16
  • Swansea have not kept a clean sheet in the Premier League in 2015
  • Liverpool have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 8 league away matches
  • Brendan Rodgers has never lost as manager for either side in this fixture
  • Daniel Sturridge has scored 4 goals in 3 matches against the Swans

Liverpool's incredible run of form has seen them climb back into contention for a Top 4 spot, but they'll have to be careful not to take a shaky Swansea side for granted. Despite the Welsh club's issues at striker since the departure of Wilfried Bony, they've had strong contributions from midfield in the form of Ki Sung-Yueng, Gylfi Sigurdsson and former Liverpool man Jonjo Shelvey, who has a habit of leaving his mark on this fixture. Sturridge's strong record should make him a consideration, while the Reds' defensive record away from Anfield could warrant investment in one of their back line, pending team news that provides an update on the status of the possibly concussed Martin Skrtel.

Have any of these facts altered your line of thought as you put together your fantasy team? Do you give any credence to the statistics and trends, or do you go by current form when making up your mind on which clubs to invest in?

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