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Is it time to drop Kun?

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Perhaps a silly question but is there evidence to suggest its not as mad a move as it at first seems?

Time to ask a crazy question
Time to ask a crazy question
Michael Regan/Getty Images

I feel discomfort suggesting it, more writing it in a post but I'm going to ask the question.  Should we/I consider dropping Kun Aguero in either Fantrax or FPL for week 32?

The case for keeping
  • For many Kun is the Premier League's best player.  When fit he remains one of the few players within the league that can rack up multi goal hauls and is a player who performs well with his back against the wall.   In recent seasons we have seen 4 and 5 game performances by the Argentinian star that can make or break you season.  The thought process is that if he is fit you should pick him in your teams regardless of fixture.   There is a psychological barrier to overcome whenever considering not selecting him.

  • Kun has scored a brace 3 times over the last 9 games showing his multi goal ability.

  • In week 32 he faces Bournemouth away.  The Cherries are mathematically still in the relegation fight but in all reality they are safe.

  • In Week 34 Kun has the potential provided by a double game week.

The case for dropping
  • Whilst it may only be Bournemouth, The Cherries have conceded just 2 goals in the last 3 home league games.

  • City's away form has been below par all season and they have failed to score in their last two away games.

  • If you take away the 4-0 win over Villa, City have scored 9 goals in 10 game and 4 of those came in the 4-0 win over Crystal Palace back in mid-January.  Again minus the Villa result its 2 goals in the City's last 7 league games.

  • Kun has failed to score in 4 of his last 5 league games.

  • City play this match up 4 days before the Champions League Quarter Final 1st leg against Paris Saint-Germain.  That leg is away from home.

  • In week 33 they have a plumb tie at home to West Bromwich Albion but just 3 days later face the 2nd leg against PSG.

  • The double game round in week 34 sees them travel twice, to league Champions Chelsea and then to face former manager Rafa Bentitez's relegation battling Newcastle United.  These matchups do not look easy on paper and of course we will not know the mental state of the City side coming into those games let alone the physical side, which brings me to the next point.

  • City go into this run of games with big injury concerns.  Joe Hart and Vincent Kompany are out and Raheem Sterling is likely out as well.   David Silva is reported maybe to be playing with an ankle concern.  Kevin De Bruyne is due back after the international break but has been out for a long period.  Yaya Toure has missed a few games/minutes recently with problems and there seems to be a very different drive in him playing in Champions League matches to his performance in Premier League games right now.

Conclusions

Much of the theory on keeping Kun is based on Citys fight for top four, his proven fantasy points scoring ability and the double week/s to come.   They are good points but when you weigh against the issues raised above with away form, fixture congestion and injury I think there is a case to at least consider your options.

In Fantrax that decision is much tougher.  Had he been around the Harry Kane/Rihad Mahrez prices I really think dropping him is the correct play.  I hold Kun as many of you do at 14,968 against his current retail of 16,194.  So we stand to lose just a 1m or so to let him go for week 32.  We can always pick him up on the BD should he go crazy at Bournemouth so it's not really the pricing that should effect your decision.

For me my issue is I that have been doing rather well in this game format.  In turn this seems to have left me currently suffering the negative mindset that if I drop him he will fire the goals City need despite the evidence at hand telling me there may be other or better options.  I was right about the Siggy flop against Aston Villa but even without the Fantrax hiccups last weekend, I suspect I would have been too concerned to sell him.  This could be the case once more with Kun.

In FPL at a current purchase price of 13.6m I think I have convinced myself that he will not be in my squad through weeks 32, 33 and 34.  In the Beat the Bloggers league I am miles off contention so my concentration has returned to my longest running private league.   I currently sit 4th and am 56 points off the leader.   I do have a sniff of glory then and it is with this chance I hope you can help with your views.

I still have my wildcard and all three chips to play.   As it stands I'm leaning towards playing the Wildcard week 33 to build a team of purely double gamers for 34.  In that week I would play my bench boost chip which in theory could allow 15 double gamers to play.  It will still need me to sell Harry Kane which is perhaps as big a call as it is not having Kun.   I would hopefully leave my squad so I can bring him back week 35 should I wish.

All of my rivals above me hold Kun and they also all hold Kane, Mahrez, Payet and Alli.  My guess is they won't be taking those players out.

So right now I'm still deep in thought but leaning towards selling in Fantrax and not selecting him in the FPL game, both of which doesn't leave me feeling comfortable.

What are your views?  If you are in the chasing pack in a blog or private league what are your alternative moves to catch up if you choose to keep him?

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