Often when playing fantasy football we debate certain idiosyncrasies we have. One of mine is that I find myself continually fighting against the desire not go with the pack in my player selections. While I will happily advise you to use your head not your gut when selecting your gameweek squads, I battle with ideas of trying something alternative.
Sometimes it comes with a logical approach. Take gameweek 2 in Fantrax fantasy football for example. For many and most picking the Premier Leagues best player Sergio Aguero every week until he is no longer fit is a correct standard play. For me though I have to go through the ritual of analysing his cost, his fixture, his lost discount if applicable and the alternatives at the same value. In gameweek two I had my doubts over the Kun selection and therefore ended up with a choice between the following trio of players.
Kevin De Brynue
I felt the additional weapons in choice two would balance and exceed the Kun trio. I was not correct!
My thinking was as follows.
- KDB is the type of player that will rack up 10 points without a goal or assist with the Fantrax scoring system.
- Coutinho was coming off the back of a 29pt haul at Arsenal and faced a Burnley side who allowed plenty of efforts on their goal against Swansea in gameweek 1. While 29pts again was unrealistic, surely he would still provide 10-15pts against such opposition.
- Llorente had fired in plenty of efforts on goal in gameweek one playing away from home and now hosted a Hull city side still down to the bones and using Jack Livermore as a central defender.
In reality it ended with Kun's trio scoring 35pts while my choice scored a total of 11pts. The proof is in the pudding they say but I'm still not so sure. I'm pretty sure if I asked you to predict the combined total of KDB, Coutinho and Llorente last Friday night, that figure would be around 30-40pts. Further with all three having a fixture that on paper could see all three score it may be higher, I doubt many would have guessed such a horrific score from them.
With the Kun trio even if Kun went big the more filler like option of Phillips and Ramirez were less likely to add big points to the combined total. We saw this with Kuns brace 26pts and the limited impact of his partners. Which trio was right was always going to have a large part of fortune about it. I went with choice two and writing this post I still think I made the right call.
Onto gameweek 3. This time Kun has a home game against a West Ham United side that will have played on Thursday evening in a Europa League qualifier and will be missing at least first choice left back Aaron Cressell, first choice forward Andy Carroll and maybe super star player Dimitri Payet. A clean sheet looks unlikely for the Hammers doesn't it and it would seem to me that a Kun brace/hatty is more likely this week than it was last week at Stoke.
So what could my choices be this time?
Fantrax Fantasy Football
My Barn Door side looks as follows
Amat, Shaw, Targett
Hazard, Townsend, Snodgrass, Mirallas.
Kun, Zlatan, Vardy
So what of Kun. I did BD him so hold at 19m. With my aim being that any player I buy returns 125% of his value I need 24pts from him. That will most likely need a brace and they are not a common occurrence in the Premier League let alone in back to back weeks. He then faces an international game (injury concern alert) and comes back in gameweek 4 to the monster game against Manchester United. In my opinion in week 4 there are better options for the money so if I do pick him again it's likely just for this week. As for this week you have to say he a scores a goal but If Sunderland of all teams could keep him out to a pen and 1 SOT then maybe the Hammers can.
With City at home I need to cover the City attack should I get bold/stupid for the second week in a row and drop Kun for week 3. Sterling is a little more composure away from a 20pt game. KDB has better stats in home games and it would be typical if I sold him and he went 20+ the week after I had him in my lineup.
Matt Targett is in dependent on team news over Bertrand. I'd prefer Virgil Van Dyke who I think scores and clean sheets this week but I need more money. Hmmm how could I get more money?
Kevin Mirallas got a midweek rest so starts against Stoke if fit. With the arrival of Bolasie and Aaron Lennon's midweek goal his game time may be 75mins with the depth Everton have in wide areas.
Snoddy has very difficult fixtures coming up and you would expect Jose to suffocate Hulls main creation threat. Still I have that massive discount on him. If I sell then it's unlikely I will see him again bar a double week this season.
I hold Zlatan at 12m and with him holding pens he is hard to let go. Truthfully, if his retail price wasn't 20+ I would sell him this week. Playing against a side that hasn't conceded in open play I think it's a potential blank week for him goal wise. As we discussed earlier this week Zlatans style means he isn't likely to rack up the fantasy points greatly unless he scores or assists. In the FPL game that's fine but in Fantrax it's an issue. So far he has scored 12pts and 25 pts and those totals included scoring 3 goals. Without them that's 7pts over the 2 gameweeks. Meanwhile Curtis Davies has 41pts with no clean sheet and 1 assist. Snoddy scored 29pts in one game with a goal. Sterling scored 12pts last week with 1 assist and a yellow card and a penalty conceded. Townsend has 30pts in 2 games with no goal or assist at all. Goals are not everything in the Fantrax format.
The stats tell us Burnley/Sunderland are conceding plenty of shots on their goal this season. I'd like to take advantage of this and load up with Chelsea and Southampton talent with both being at home. Diego Costa has the bit between his teeth and scored in both fixtures so far. That has also seen him get booked twice and arguably should have been sent off in both games. Regardless I predict he outscores Zlatan this week. At St Mary's Southampton face a Sunderland side feeling sorry for themselves. David Moyes has already provided a dark warning of the relegation battle ahead. While the fans will hate such talk this early in the season it is realistic. Nathan Redmond is pretty good at picking on sides who mark poorly and is growing into a more forward role. Dusan Tadic has the numbers telling us his goal is due. Tadic also has pens, set plays and is the best pick this week for me. I may even double up on them.
Champions Leicester have started slowly and Jamie Vardy missing those opening game sitters may have doubt in his mind. Opponents Swansea play pretty open football so the Foxes counter attack should give Vardy chances and they will score this week. Not holding pens is a shame for Vardy but his price still tempts me.
Christian Benteke is a bargain right now but he is a couple weeks behind in match sharpness. During Midweek his shots were off target and his trademark fouls conceded were in full effect. I see a 60 minute game from him, maybe 75 mins at the most. It's likely too early for him but at 2m he is worth the risk as I suspect he starts.
I think I will make a large number of changes to the BD lineup and only Hazard is safe my tinkering. Right now fear is stopping me removing Kun and or Zlatan.
Official Fantasy Football
Squad as it stands
Stones, Williams, Friend, Valencia, Evans
Hazard, Firmino, Redmond, Townsend, Capoue
Kun, Gray, Vardy
I have two free transfers in my pocket and 1.5m to go with them. The obvious straight swap from Jamie Vary to Zlatan is out of reach after prices changes.
Andre Grays possible suspension means I will need to wait until I know more on him.
Evans rumoured move to Arsenal would be fantastic should he be viewed as Gunners 1st choice. I'm not sure what that would mean for the Gunners if that becomes reality.
With the international break coming I'm keen for holding 2 FT to cope with any possible injuries. Should I do just the one transfer I most likely would use on a Gray replacement if is suspended. If he is cleared I may look to build my Arsenal attacking coverage with Mesut Ozil, Cazorla, Olivier Giroud's return and their tasty upcoming fixtures.
As for Kun, with the captain rule even I cannot consider selling him.
How do you think I can improve my choices? Are any of you considering going Kunless in Fantrax ?