Is your head scrambled by the abundant FPL forward options available? Are you not sure about the best forward for the near future? Fear not, NMA has you covered with the best strikers for the next six games. But, before jumping to the top picks, let’s look at some honorable mentions who narrowly missed the top five.
All underlying stats in this article have been sourced from understat.com. Make sure to check out their website to learn more.
Gabriel Jesus (£8.7m, Man City)
Fixtures: EVE(H), WHU(H), AVL(A), WAT(A), WOL(H), LEE(H)
Jesus has seven goal contributions from ten appearances in eleven weeks for Man City this season, so he deserves a mention in the conversation of top picks. Jesus fits hand in glove at his new right-wing position and seems to have earned Pep’s trust, having started in several crucial games this season. Although Man City’s fixture run isn’t as straightforward as the others’, Pep’s City can pretty much dismantle any team in the world when in form.
Jesus doesn’t make the top 5 list due to Pep Roulette. Although Jesus is Man City’s 1st choice right-winger in the Premier League at the moment, Mahrez’s impressive Champions league performances could see him get a start or two domestically, which would jeopardize Jesus’ minutes.
Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.4m, Man United)
Fixtures: WAT(A), CHE(A), ARS(H), CRY(H), NOR(A), BRE(A)
With Man United facing Watford, Norwich, and Brentford over the next six, it’s easy to think of Ronaldo as one of the top forward picks. But, Man United’s managerial uncertainty and mixing in facing Arsenal, Chelsea, and Crystal Palace could see Ronaldo again isolated up top. Granted, Ronaldo is one of the best captain options for GW-12 and GW-16, but there is no rush to buy him as there are other options.
Neal Maupay (£6.5m, Brighton & Hove Albion)
Fixtures: AVL(A), LEE(H), WHU(A), SOU(A), TOT(H), WOL(H)
Brighton faces a struggling Aston Villa in GW-12, and although Steven Gerrard is an able replacement to Dean Smith in the Villa dugout, the Liverpool legend will find it hard to stage a tactical revolution in time for his first game. Maupay, Brighton’s best-attacking asset (four goals with an xG 3.18 in 10 appearances), could exploit the Villans’ defensive weaknesses.
Brighton also notably faces a leaky Leeds defense (5th most goals conceded) in GW-13 with Maupay & Co expected to have a field day if form isn’t tightened up quickly enough. Maupay misses out on the top 5 list due to the availability of higher-ceiling options with easier fixtures.
#5- Callum Wilson (£7.3m, Newcastle)
Fixtures: BRE(H), ARS(A), NOR(H), BUR(H), LEI(A), LIV(A)
Despite the successful Saudi takeover ending Mike Ashley’s era of doom & gloom, Newcastle’s on-field results have remained appalling. Eddie Howe’s appointment however could be the breath of fresh air necessary to boost Newcastle’s survival chances. Who remembers the iconic Fraser-Wilson combo under Eddie Howe for Bournemouth? That combo could be making a return, but this time in Black & White kit.
Despite being sidelined several weeks injured, Wilson remains Newcastle’s top scorer with four goals in seven appearances from an xG of 3.01. With an run of soft fixtures that include Brentford, Norwich and Burnley in the next six, Wilson is an excellent option if he manages to stay fit.
#4- Jamie Vardy (£10.8m, Leicester)
Fixtures: CHE(H), WAT(H), SOU(A), AVL(A), NEW(H), TOT(H)
Vardy owners can feel a touch unlucky with his recent hattrick of blanks in a fixture run that was “easy” on paper. But, selling Vardy now could be a big mistake. In the next six games, Leicester notably plays Watford, Aston Villa, and Newcastle, 3 clubs in the wrong half of the league for expected goals conceded.
Although buying Vardy for the GW-12 match against Chelsea might not be the best timing, the Leicester #9 is a fantastic long-term pick. If your team doesn’t have other problems to address, going for Vardy early may pay off and moving for Vardy in GW-13 should be on your watch-list.
#3- Teemu Pukki (£5.8m, Norwich City)
Fixtures: SOU(H), WOL(H), NEW(A), TOT(A), MUN(H), AVL(H)
Hear me out. This is not a drill! According to the average xG conceded, Norwich City’s attackers have the 2nd easiest fixture run (facing teams with an average xG conceded of 1.58) for the next 6 GWs (behind only Brentford). So if you’re looking to fund premium midfielders (Son, KDB etc) by downgrading to a cheap forward for the next six game-weeks, Pukki might just be the man you’re looking for.
He has netted three goals in 11 appearances for Norwich from an xG of 3.68 and is the Canaries’ go-to man in attack. Priced at a measly £5.8m, the Finnish international facing the likes of Newcastle United & Aston Villa in the next six matches could make a mockery of his price.
#2- Ivan Toney (£6.7m, Brentford)
Fixtures: NEW(A), EVE(H), TOT(A), LEE(A), WAT(H), MUN(H)
Like Vardy owners, Ivan Toney owners have been disappointed by a recent dry spell against sometimes “weak” opposition. But patience is key in FPL, so dumping Toney before GW-12 may not end well. Brentford attackers have the easiest fixtures on paper according to the average xG conceded (facing teams averaging 1.63 per game) where the Bees notably play Newcastle, Everton, Leeds and Watford in the next six.
Although Toney has scored only two goals and provided two assists (xG-2.71,xA-3.28) in 11 appearances, the Brentford talisman’s underlying numbers suggest that he should be scoring more points. The underlying numbers always catch up with the actual points, so Toney will get his goals and assists soon.
#1- Harry Kane (£12.2m, Tottenham )
Fixtures: LEE(H), BUR(A), BRE(H), NOR(H), BHA(H), LEI(A)
Antonio Conte’s ridiculous ban on ketchup seems to have worked out! Although Kane blanked in Antonio Conte’s 1st game in charge, Spurs 0-0 draw with Everton, the England Captain bagged a hattrick for England in the Three Lions’ emphatic 5-0 win over Albania.
That performance might just be what Kane needed to refocus and end his Premier League goal drought. With Spurs having one of the easiest fixture runs on paper, Kane is arguably the best captain in three of the next six game-weeks. That makes Harry Kane my best FPL forward pick.
Who is your favorite forward for the next 6 game-weeks? Have I left out anyone? Do you agree with the order of the top five? If not, what changes would you make? Did I sway your thoughts on Teemu Pukki? Would you consider picking up Pukki now or soon? Have thoughts of your own? Please answer the poll and then let us know your reasoning (and questions) in the comments section below.
Who is the Best FPL Forward For The Next Six Weeks?
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