10 Questions for FPL 2022-23

Wow, what an exciting season 2021-22 was! Here’s hoping the upcoming 2022-23 campaign can match the fun. Regardless, if you want to get off to a good start, it is absolutely imperative to take away as many lessons from last year as possible when cobbling together your new squad. Let’s get started, shall we?

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1. Can Son and Kane keep up their offensive proficiency from the latter half of 2021-22?

Following the late 2020-21 sacking of Jose Mourinho and the summer-2021 soap opera revolving around Harry Kane’s possible exit, the first half of 2021-22 was a disaster for Tottenham under Nuno Espirito Santo. It took time, but Antonio Conte righted Spurs’ ship following the brilliantly seamless January 2022 transfer additions of winger Dejan Kulusevski and midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur. Each led to amazing leaps in form from the team’s two main attacking forces, Kane and Son Heung-Min. From GW-24 (when Kulusevski and Bentancur first featured) through the end of the season (which encompassed 18 fixtures due to a flurry of double game weeks), Son increased his FPL ppg by over 50%, and Kane more than doubled his.

Thanks to those latter-half season exploits, Son finished as the #2 overall earner in FPL for 2021-22, his 258 points just short of the 265 points tallied by Liverpool’s Mo Salah. Nobody else was even close. Meanwhile, despite his sluggish start, Kane finished as the top FPL forward with 192 points. Fantasy managers who finished strong last season had at least one of the Spurs’ attacking stars, if not both.

But because of their fantastic finish, Son and Kane are quite pricey going into 2022-23. If you think they will continue their late 2021-22 form, then it’s worth splashing the cash on them. If you expect a return to earth, then you’re probably looking elsewhere for premium assets in your fantasy sides.

How can we expect them to perform in early 2022-23? Let’s take a look at the past five seasons. On a PPG basis, Son has increased his production at each step from 2017-18 to 2021-22, with incremental gains before a big uptick in 2021-22. Meanwhile, Kane actually has seen his delivery slide a bit at almost every step of the way, the only exception being what looks like an outlier in 2020-21 when the Tottenham talisman brilliantly won both the Golden Boot and assist title.

Is it sensible to focus on the second half of last season, hoping that the strong finish with Conte, Bentancur and Kulusevski should carry over to their first full campaign with Son and Kane? Is it prudent to give more weight to the overall season-to-season trends of the past five years, or are those irrelevant since the likes of Nuno, Mourinho, Mauricio Pochettino, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli are no longer around? Will the 2022 summer transfer addition of Ivan Perisic followed by the grab of Richarlison help or hinder the production of the two main Spurs’ stars?

Ultimately, given your answer, are you installing both Son and Kane, just one, or neither of them to kick off 2022-23 for your FPL team?

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2. Will Chelsea’s defense remain solid, or will it struggle without linchpin Antonio Rudiger?

Chelsea’s recent fortunes under Thomas Tuchel have revolved around a rock solid defense, with star central defender Antonio Rudiger playing a vital role in that success, a la Ruben Dias for Man City and Virgil van Dijk at Liverpool.

Last season, there was a stark difference in the Blues’ defensive results when Rudiger was on the pitch compared to when he was out with injury.

Admittedly, four games is a small sample size, and the team actually kept two clean sheets without Rudiger (at Brentford and v. West Ham). However, the Blues also gave up one goal at anemic Norwich and shipped four to Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, leaving the goals-conceded average nearly half a goal per game higher without Rudiger as with him. One way to put it is that Chelsea conceded 4+ goals in a game only once in 34 games with Rudiger playing, and once in only four games with him sidelined.

Small sample size or not, it is impossible to overstate the importance of Rudiger to the team’s recent defensive success. Now that Rudiger has departed London on a free transfer to Real Madrid along with the exit of Andreas Christensen to Barcelona, is the summer transfer addition of Kalidou Koulibaly from Napoli enough to convince you that Chelsea’s back line will remain stout? Or will you avoid popular Blues’ wing defenders such as Ben Chilwell and Reese James along with keeper Édouard Mendy in fantasy, expecting a rise in goals conceded and thus a decline in clean sheets?

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3. Will Newcastle make a big leap in 2022-23 and challenge for a European spot following the huge influx of money from its new Saudi Arabian owners?

For the first half of last season, Newcastle was stuck in a serious relegation scrap. With the help of January 2022 additions Bruno Guimaraes, Chris Wood, Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn and Matt Targett following the October 2021 club sale, the Magpies enjoyed a second half rennaisance, surging to 11th place. This summer, the Magpies have made further transfer grabs to bolster the side in the form of central defender Sven Botman along with keeper Nick Pope.

Let’s look at the somewhat recent history of two other big oil money takeovers of EPL teams:

• Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in the summer of 2003. The Blues won their first EPL title ever in 2004-05. The success didn’t stop there, as Chelsea has now won five out of the past 18 EPL crowns.
• An Abu Dhabi group headed by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan bought Man City in the summer of 2008. The Sky Blues won their first EPL title ever in 2011-12. The success didn’t stop there, as Man City has now won six of the past eleven EPL crowns.

Photo by Mark Fletcher/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Should we expect the same pattern to happen now with Newcastle, suddenly and amazingly THE RICHEST CLUB IN THE WORLD? Will Newcastle win their first EPL crown in the next two or three or five seasons and become a regular heavyweight? Is a top seven — or perhaps even top four — finish a reasonable expectation for 2022-23, or is that too soon? Is the “Big Six” now the “Big Seven?” Are you targeting Newcastle players for your fantasy teams?

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4. Can a team among Aston Villa, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Leicester, West Ham or Wolves separate itself from the pack in the challenge for Europe?

Depending on how you answered Question #3, Newcastle United may (or may not) be able to mount a challenge for a European spot in 2022-23. Question #4 is essentially asking, just how crowded is that challenge going to be? Because if one (or two) team(s) can separate itself from the pack, you may be able to find fantasy joy targeting their stars. If instead it ends up a muddle, it may be more of a mix and match (or avoid altogether) situation in fantasy.

Leicester City, West Ham and Brighton have enjoyed strong leadership the past few seasons from Brendan Rodgers, David Moyes and Graham Potter, respectively. Meanwhile, Wolves and Crystal Palace saw successful first seasons under Bruno Lage and Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira, respectively, while Aston Villa had a solid run following the November 2021 welcome of Liverpool great Steven Gerrard.

Let’s look at the teams’ basic table stats over the past two campaigns:

There are positive takeaways for each team:

• West Ham have scored 60+ goals along with at least a +5 goal differential in each of the past two seasons, joining only Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham for that distinction.
• Leicester City have ranked in the top five in goals scored in each of the past two seasons, joining only Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham for that distinction.
• Brighton have conceded fewer than 50 goals each of the past two seasons, joining only Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal in that distinction.
• Crystal Palace may have only taken the 12th spot in the table, but on goal differential alone Palace were actually the 7th best team in the EPL in 2021-22 under Vieira. (The culprit: 15 draws, tying — naturally — for the most in the league.)
• Wolves conceded the fifth-fewest goals in the league in 2021-22 under Lage.
• Aston Villa had suffered defeat in seven of their first 11 league games (64%) with a total of just 10 points (0.91 ppg) when Dean Smith was sacked. After Gerrard took over, the Villans lost only 12 of the remaining 27 fixtures (44%), producing 35 points (1.30 ppg).

Of course, there are always negative takeaways as well, should you instead choose to focus on those. Among the mid-tier half-dozen I’ve highlighted (West Ham, Leicester, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Wolves and Aston Villa), do one or two teams stand out as likely to perform well in 2021-22? Which of their players are you high on from a fantasy standpoint?

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5. Can Bruno Fernandes reclaim his spot as an elite fantasy asset, or are his days of wine and roses over?

Bruno Fernandes took the league by storm in midseason 2019-20 before becoming a full-fledged superstar in 2020-21. After the arrival of Portugal compatriot Cristiano Ronaldo in 2021-22, however, Bruno’s production fell off a cliff.

Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images

The primary factor in Bruno’s plunge was the extreme reduction in penalty kick opportunities and goals. It wasn’t just that the Red Devils drew fewer penalty kick attempts (only five in 2021-22) than they had been accustomed to earning in recent years (11+ each season from 2018-19 through 2020-21), but on top of that Ronaldo took over the #1 PK designation from Bruno and killed his “Penandes” nickname in the process.

However, following last campaign’s debacle, there are three factors which make Fernandes potentially attractive for the upcoming season. First, there is hope for a Manchester United turnaround under new manager Erik ten Hag whose Ajax teams have not only been strong overall, but have scored prolifically. Second, the FPL portal gave Fernandes a big price drop from £12.0m to start last season down to £10.0m this time around. Third and seemingly most important, Ronaldo has lodged a request to transfer to a team featuring in Champions League, and the exit of CR7 — should it happen — would presumably reinstall Bruno as the #1 pen taker.

However, United reportedly want to hold onto Ronaldo, although that may merely be spin covering for an inability to find a team CR7 wants to go to that is willing to pay his wages. Another a potential problem comes with the arrival of Christian Eriksen, as both stars are used to staking a singular claim on the #10 playmaker role which could lead to more malaise from Bruno should that designation be shared between the pair or outright given to the Dane. On the other hand, that could be an advantage, if Eriksen’s arrival is able to free up Bruno to get forward more and possibly pad his scoring stats.

Is another disappointing campaign in store for Bruno, or do you see 2021-22 as an outlier and expect the attacking midfielder to regain his swashbuckling form?

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6. Will any young Arsenal attacker(s) make another leap in 2022-23?

After sustained success over a very long period under Arsene Wenger, Arsenal hit tough times in recent seasons, with the low point being an 8th place finish in 2019-20. Since then, the Gunners seem to be on an upswing, going from 56 points in the aforementioned 2019-20 campaign up to 61 points in 2020-21 and 69 points in 2021-22. Just missing out on a Champions League spot was disappointing to the North London faithful, but the season can be viewed as a success in terms of Mikel Arteta’s youth movement which hopes to herald greater things to come in 2022-23 and beyond.

Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images

Veteran Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang transferred out in January 2022, and late in the season fellow old pro Alexandre Lacazette saw his playing time diminished. Interestingly, youngster Nicolas Pepe also saw his minutes reduced sharply. While the trio’s combined assist tally actually increased, the goal production fell off precipitously from 33 to 9.

While Pepe missed out on the fun, otherwise a slew of young attackers were given increased minutes, which led to plenty of production rises for Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli and Eddie Nketiah. Boosting from 11 up to 39 goals together, the quintet more than made up for the aforementioned trio’s decline in scoring.

Lacazette transferred out over the summer, but the additions of forward Gabriel Jesus from Manchester City and midfielder Fábio Vieira from Porto have made the attacking end more crowded on balance. Are you targeting any Gunners’ attacker(s) to keep improving and serve as a worthwhile fantasy investment(s), or is the Arsenal situation merely one to be avoided now?

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7. With Marco Bielsa gone, is it necessary to avoid Leeds United attacking options, or are any still viable? Are defensive assets more attractive now under Jessie Marsch?

Marco Bielsa famously (or perhaps infamously) implemented a manic, up-tempo style which led to on-pitch success and fantasy joy in 2020-21 from a number of Leeds United players along with the devotion of local and worldwide football fans alike. Unfortunately, it soon felt like a mirage, with a series of drubbings leading to the late February sacking of Bielsa. Somehow, newly installed American manager Jesse “Please Stop Calling Me Ted Lasso” Marsch managed to escape the relegation scrap.

Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images

For fantasy managers who had invested in Leeds attacking options in 2021-22, it was especially painful as their production plummeted while the team struggled with fitness and an existential battle between identity and form. Patrick Bamford’s injury-riddled season was one to forget, while Jack Harrison’s assists dried up as his output fell off sharply. Raphinha’s assists also dried up, but the Brazilian took over primary goal scoring responsibility (including from the penalty spot) and actually improved his overall FPL production, although it slipped slightly on a per game basis.

It may seem logical that defensive options should be more attractive in the upcoming season under the pragmatic style of Jesse Marsch compared to the wide open approach of Bielsa. However, it was not just on the offensive end that there was a sharp drop-off last campaign. It was easy to forget, but the defensive side of the ball actually also brought plenty of fantasy joy in 2020-21 before crashing in 2021-22. For Stuart Dallas, part of the problem was being re-categorized as a midfielder rather than a defender, while the team’s drop-off from 12 to 5 clean sheets was a major culprit in the tanking fortunes of defender Luke Ayling and keeper Ilan Meslier.

Leeds clearly had a horrible season overall from a defensive perspective. But the key looking forward to 2022-23 may be in how the team performed last season under Marsch compared to Bielsa. While neither managers did anywhere close to as well in 2021-22 on a points per game basis or in attack than the team fared under Bielsa in 2020-21, Marsch was impressively able to implement a defense that was nearly as effective in his dozen games, conceding only 1.50 gpg late in 2021-22 compared to Bielsa’s 1.42 gpg average in 2020-21 which had crashed to a putrid 2.35 gpg in the 26 games of 2021-22 preceding Bielsa’s sacking.

Do you see that defensive improvement carrying over to next season as well, particularly with the additions of right back Rasmus Kristensen along with defensive midfielders Tyler Adams and Marc Roca? Given a first full campaign, and hopefully with a healthier Patrick Bamford et al. on top of the addition of Brenden Aaronson as well as incoming winger Luis Sinisterra, can Marsch also implement an attack that is anywhere close to as exciting as it was under Bielsea also? Or with Bielsa out and Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha having left for Manchester City and Barcelona, respectively, is the Leeds magic entirely gone for you?

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8. Which team(s) are most likely to suffer a severe decline?

It wasn’t just Leeds that fell off a cliff from 2021-21 to 2021-22 (plunging from 9th to 17th in the table). They were joined by Everton (falling from 10th to 16th), rendering most of both teams’ players worthless from a fantasy standpoint.

Was that an unusual situation? Well, a year prior, from 2020-21 to 2021-22, Burnley fell from 10th down to 17th and Sheffield United plunged from 9th to 18th, as the Blades were unceremoniously dumped from the league.

And two years ago, from 2019-20 to 2020-21, Watford dropped from 11th place down to 19th place, saying goodbye to the EPL and hello to the Championship.

Clearly, the Leeds and Everton collapses were not anomalies, but rather fairly normal occurrences. Which team(s) show worrisome signs — whether a poor finish to last campaign, a lackluster summer of transfer activity or injury to key player(s) — that they are likely to be this upcoming season’s standout example of drop-off, influencing you to avoid targeting their players in fantasy?

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9. Do any of the newly promoted team(s) catch your eye?

Part of the fun of playing FPL is trying to identify the newly promoted team(s) and players from those sides who will actually make an impact. Of course, it’s usually not as easy as it seems it should be, and last season was a shining example thereof. Take a look at this simple chart:

When selecting your fantasy team to start 2021-22, it may have made sense to invest in Norwich City and/or Watford, the Championship’s top two teams from 2020-21 which also had a recent track record (not necessarily a great track record, but a track record nonetheless) in the Premiership.

As it turned out, however, it was Brentford, the third place Championship team that hadn’t sniffed the EPL since shortly after World War II, which brilliantly turned in a 13th place league finish and translated that into FPL gold with five players returning 100+ points: forward Ivan Toney (139 points), defender Pontus Jansson (122 pts), midfielder Bryan Mbuemo (119 pts), defender Rico Henry (108 pts) and midfielder Christian Norgaard (101 pts). Meanwhile, the only Norwich player to crack the century mark was forward Teemu Pukki (142 pts), and Watford’s only representative was striker Emmanuel Dennis (139 pts).

Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images

Do you have an eye on players from any of the newly promoted sides among Fulham, Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest, or are you staying away due to uncertainty? Do you think we may be in for another surprise, or should last season’s Championship form hold when handicapping the trio of teams as they take a jump up this upcoming campaign?

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10. Is it necessary to plan for a World Cup impact?

It is crazy enough that, according to recent reports, the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 is expected to be a no fun zone for fans in attendance: no publicly revealing attire, no public drunkenness, no sex between LGBTQ or unmarried heterosexual participants (even privately in their own hotel rooms). It’s as if the hosts in Doha are waving their arms and yelling, “Please don’t come! Save your money and have a much better time watching at home!”

Beyond the hyper-restrictive cultural regulations or the simple fact that Qatar had never before qualified for the prestigious tournament, the antithetical nature of this year’s World Cup hits at a more fundamental level. The way the definitely-not-corrupt bid was initially sold to the public was that, despite the hot as Hades summer weather conditions in Qatar, the event would be held in the standard season, just as it always had been, since the home nation would quickly and easily construct a vast array of air conditioned domed stadia, and there was no need to be concerned that visiting fans would be uncomfortable in the uncooled surroundings aside from those bubbles. And if you believed that premise even for a millisecond, I’ve got a beautiful bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. (Non-crypto currency accepted.)

In a shock necessitating a cosmic supply of fainting couches and smelling salts, well after the Qatar bid won out, eventually the announcement was made that the World Cup will actually, for the first time ever, not take place in the summer when domestic leagues around the globe are on break. Instead, the tournament will be held from November 21 through December 18. To accommodate the unusual timing of the competition, the EPL will shut down following GW16 which finishes November 13 and resume for GW17 starting December 26 (a.k.a. Boxing Day).

In previous summer World Cups, it was customary for exhausted players whose national teams progressed to the latter rounds (semifinals/third place game/final) to take the opening EPL game week, or even the first two fixtures, off. If that happens this time around, now we might see those World Cup players rested for GW17 and perhaps GW18 as well. But on top of that, it is not outside the realm of possibility for the other end to be impacted as well. Might we also see players whose national teams are scheduled for early starts in Qatar miss GW16, the final league fixture before the international tourney? Or will that not be an issue since the players already rested over the summer and won’t need extra time off?

With this in mind, is there an advantage to focusing on stars whose national teams will be missing the World Cup entirely (for instance, when looking at Liverpool, prioritizing Scotland wing defender Andrew Robertson over England counterpart Trent Alexander-Arnold)? Or just making sure to avoid EPL players whose national sides either have early starts in Qatar, or are from one of the big favorites who would be expected to go deep in the tournament?

Regarding FPL’s announcement of unlimited transfers ahead of the GW17 restart, fantasy managers each get an extra first half wildcard chip. Thus, there may be no need to worry about World Cup considerations when you set up your team to start the season. But if you are planning for a World Cup impact, will you merely take those considerations into account when you use your extra wildcard?

Of course, I should add that, had the World Cup instead been held this summer in Europe where there have been sweltering temperatures along with swaths of wildfires, there may well have been difficulties hosting the tournament there. The United States (co-hosting in 2026) is experiencing its own problems with rising heat and more fires. The World Cup now simply may not be able to continue in the summer season, regardless of the locale. Qatar might merely represent an earlier than expected change in that regard.

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*11. Bonus Question: Is Erling Haaland a must-have, or should you avoid him?

I originally planned on including this in the list of 10 questions, and I actually think it is the single most important query that needs to be answered by fantasy managers when plotting out their course for the season. However, the more I delved into Haaland’s prospects for the upcoming campaign at his new Manchester City home, the clearer it became that the issue deserved its own standalone deep dive. Be sure to read my post to glean my thoughts on the topic of whether you should add or avoid Haaland in 2022-23.

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[SOURCE NOTE: EPL statistics, fantasy scoring and other info came from the official Premier League website, the official fantasy Premier League website or transfermarkt.]

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How do you answer the above questions, and how do your answers impact your fantasy decisions ahead of the upcoming EPL season? What other queries do you think need pondering? Be sure to share your thoughts in the comments section below!

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