Looking Back: Staff Predictions 2022-23

Every pre-season, the NMA staff gathers in a digital camp in preparation for a new season of FPL and Fantrax. The objective of this pre-season virtual huddle is to speculate on how the upcoming Premier League and Champions League campaigns will pan out, and then to publish those guesses in a Looking Ahead article. I was lucky to escape having to put my prognostications on record this year, since I was on hiatus from the staff.

That now puts me in the perfect position to evaluate how everyone’s predictions worked out, since I have no skin in the game and can therefore serve as an impartial referee. To do that I’m going to employ my own custom scoring system, which I’ll explain separately for each specific prediction category. There will be points awarded when deserved, but also some negative points applied when I feel someone’s guess was particularly woeful!

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Actual: Man City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle

There’s no better place to begin our annual prediction review than with the Premier League’s top four finishers. Nine out of 10 staffers correctly predicted that City would three-peat, with only Chris believing that Liverpool would win the title this season. Perhaps this should come as no surprise considering his pre-season article on why Erling Haaland will probably be a bust in 2022-23. Let’s just say that that hasn’t aged well.

But beyond that, none of the staff members guessed the right rank order, and 6 out of 10 didn’t even get more than one of the top four clubs correct, regardless of position. Only Dhivakhar was able to predict, in addition to Man City winning, that Manchester United would finish in third.

MiQ’s rules: Predicting a club’s final position correctly awards the staff member 10 points, while having one of the actual four, but in the wrong position, will count for 5 points.

Because the world-famous and very official NMA Staff Prediction League is one of the strictest and most competitive of its kind, partial marks are not awarded.

Leaderboard:

1. Dhivakhar: 20 Points
2. Trambak, Guy, Stall, PPQ, Olakunle: 15 Points
3. David, James, Chris, Jeff: 10 Points

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Actual: Leicester City, Leeds, Southampton

Next we shift our gaze to the other end of the table. Leicester City, Leeds and Southampton were the teams to fall into the Championship, which means all three of this season’s promoted teams (Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest) survived their first season back in the top flight.

Every staff member thought Bournemouth would fail under Scott Parker, and rightfully so. He was replaced by Gary O’Neil, with the latter awarded an 18-month deal in November 2022. O’Neil guided the club to safety, meaning many staffers won’t be able to claim full points in this category.

Fulham, Everton and Brentford were also predicted to fall by a fair number of NMA staff, however; Fulham and Brentford somehow finished ahead of NMA staff top 4 favorite Chelsea, while Everton achieved last-gasp survival by defeating Bournemouth 1-0 on the last day of the season.

MiQ’s rules: 10 points for the correct club in the correct position and 5 points for each correct club in the wrong position.

Leaderboard:

Dhivakhar retains the lead while the others either keep up the chase or fall further behind. After two categories, Jeff finds himself the lone cellar-dweller, his 10 points stranding him at the bottom of the leaderboard so far.

1. Dhivakhar: 30 Points
2. PPQ, Olakunle: 25 Points
3. David, James, Guy: 20 Points
4. Trambak, Stall, Chris: 15 Points
5. Jeff: 10 Points

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Actual: Man City

Next, a straightforward prediction with a 25% chance of success even just by choosing randomly. Seven staffers chose Manchester City as the club likely to achieve the most success in UCL this season, and they were correct: City will face Inter Milan in the final in Turkey on 10 June.

Chelsea did not win votes from any staff members, while 2019 champs Liverpool were backed by Jeff and Olakunle. Trambak cast his lot with Tottenham, but unlike their run to the final in 2019, it wasn’t to be for Spurs in 2023.

Here is how the 2022-23 UCL campaign unfolded for each team:

Liverpool: KO in R16, by Real Madrid

Tottenham: KO in R16, by AC Milan

Chelsea: KO in Quarterfinals, by Real Madrid (Again)

Man City: to play the Finals against Inter Milan

Considering 7 NMA staff members had this prediction right, we need to create some separation by looking beyond the right answer to assess the justification behind it.

MiQ’s rules: 10 points for the correct answer, plus 5 bonus points for best reason.

Most of my fellow writers focused on City’s depth as the reason they would progress the deepest into the tournament. Only Stall touched on a different idea:

The Citizens haven’t crashed out of UCL due to lack of goals/chances, they’ve lost by lack of concentration when not in possession. Maybe this is the year they fix that, but I’m not so sure. I do think they go the deepest of the English sides.

Because what pushed Man City into the final was probably the insane possession game they played against Real Madrid, it is Stall who seems worthy of extra credit here.

Leaderboard:

Despite full bonus, Stall is still far behind Dhivakhar, who padded his lead with 10 more points here. PPQ is hot on his heels in second place, while Olakunle falls behind. Unfortunately, Jeff remains mired to the bottom.

1. Dhivakhar: 40 Points
2. PPQ: 35 Points
3. David, James, Guy, Stall: 30 Points
4. Olakunle, Chris: 25 Points
5. Trambak: 15 Points
6. Jeff: 10 Points

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Actual: Scott Parker

Thirteen managers were sacked this season, with Chelsea and Spurs replacing managers thrice and twice respectively.

All the managers named by NMA staff members were sacked sooner or later (hard to miss with so many managers sacked in such a short time). I was really hoping to award a few negative points here!

A prediction juggernaut of Man City proportions, Dhivakhar was the only one to correctly name Parker as the first manager sacked, the 0-9 curb-stomping at Anfield proving to be the final nail in the gaffer’s coffin.

MiQ’s rules: 10 points for correct answer

Leaderboard:

Dhivakhar again hogs the 10 points, with even PPQ missing this one. Dhivakhar’s lead now increases to 15 points.

1. Dhivakhar: 50 Points
2. PPQ: 35 Points
3. David, James, Guy, Stall: 30 Points
4. Olakunle, Chris: 25 Points
5. Trambak: 15 Points
6. Jeff: 10 Points

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Actual: Haaland 36, Kane 30, Toney 20

Last season’s close battle between Mo Salah and Son ended in a tie when each player finished with 23 goals. This year’s race wasn’t exactly the same kind of nail-biter, with Erling Haaland rattling the net a record-setting 36 times. Kane was next with 30, which in most years would be more than enough to win.

MiQ’s rule: 10 point for guessing correctly, 5 point consolation if you guessed Kane.

We have three staff members who predicted Haaland to win the Golden Boot this season —and for once, Dhivakhar was not one of them! Three more predicted Kane’s success and they will be awarded 5 points each.

I am tempted to have Son & Nunez voters receive a few negative points, but they are already so low in the leaderboard that that just seems mean.

Leaderboard:

Dhivakhar stumbles here; could it be a turning point?

1. Dhivakhar: 50 Points
2. David, James, PPQ: 40 Points
3. Olakunkle, Guy: 35 Points
4. Stall, Chris: 30 Points
5. Trambak: 15 Points
6. Jeff: 10 Points

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Actual: De Gea (17)

Seventeen shutouts were enough for Spain’s number 1 to win the Golden Gloves this season. Staff favorite Ederson placed a surprising 6th, likely due to the fact that Pep was late in shifting to a more possession-oriented strategy by moving Stones into midfield alongside Rodri.

Lloris was the only outlier vote among our staff. The French keeper kept seven clean sheets and played only 25 matches this season.

Leaderboard:

Everyone missed this one, so it’s as you were.

1. Dhivakhar: 50 Points
2. David, James, PPQ: 40 Points
3. Olakunkle, Guy: 35 Points
4. Stall, Chris: 30 Points
5. Trambak: 15 Points
6. Jeff: 10 Points

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Actual: Kevin De Bruyne (16)

Mo Salah ended last seasons as top scorer and top assister. The Egyptian came close to winning the most assists title again this season, but KDB was on another level. With goal-machine Haaland in front of him, the Belgian made 16 assists to claim the award.

Our staff members did well in this category, with 50% calling it for KDB. Son, Salah and TAA also received votes.

MiQ’s rules: 10 points for KDB, 5 for Salah.

Leaderboard:

Another miss for Dhivakhar, while David and James are on track to make it a three-way race for first. Olakunle will be happy to reduce his gap to the top spot to only 5 points. Jeff takes the 5 point consolation prize, enough to level him with Trambak, but not enough to see him out of the basement.

1. Dhivakhar, David, James: 50 Points
2. Olakunle: 45 Points
3. PPQ, Stall, Chris: 40 Points
4. Guy: 35 Points
5. Trambak, Jeff: 15 Points

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Unfortunately, the PFA awards event will not take place until August 2023 so we’ll have to wait on this one.

Leaderboard:

Status quo.

1. Dhivakhar, David, James: 50 Points
2. Olakunle: 45 Points
3. PPQ, Stall, Chris: 40 Points
4. Guy: 35 Points
5. Trambak, Jeff: 15 Points

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Actual: Haaland (272), Kane (263), Salah (239)

Now we move on to the fantasy side of EPL, and to FPL specifically. Okalunke took a bye here, while five others predicted Salah to win it as usual. Harry Kane, Son, Trippier and KDB were each picked once.

MiQ’s rules: Points distribution here will be 15 points for Haaland, 10 for Kane, and 5 for Salah.

Leaderboard:

Olakunle, Guy, Jeff, and James all take zeroes here. James drops below leaders David and Dhivakhar, while Jeff is left alone at the bottom again as Trambak pushes upwards. PPQ’s Kane guess brings him on level with James, only 5 points behind the leaders.

1. Dhivakhar, David: 55 Points
2. James, PPQ: 50 Points
3. Olakunle, Stall, Chris: 45 Points
4. Guy: 35 Points
5. Trambak: 20 Points
6. Jeff: 15 Points

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Actual: Kane (583), Haaland (544), Trippier (523)

Trambak joined Okalunke on the sidelines for this prediction as only eight staff members ventured a guess. Jeff could have made up some ground here if he had stuck with the same prediction he made in FPL, but instead of Trips he chose TAA in Fantrax. Salah was once again the favorite with David, PPQ and Stall, who all predicted a best-in-league tally for the Egyptian king.

MiQ’s rules: Similar to FPL. Fifteen points for Kane, 10 for Haaland, and five for Trips.

Leaderboard:

Dhivakhar reverses his recent downward trend here, with his on-point prediction of Harry Kane. With no points awarded to any other contestant, could the competition already be decided with a few categories still to go?

This round seems similar to Arsenal’s late-season stumble that left the door open for City to cruise to the title. Dhivakhar = Man City, everyone else = Arsenal.

1. Dhivakhar: 70 Points
2. David: 55 Points
3. James, PPQ: 50 Points
4. Olakunle, Stall, Chris: 45 Points
5. Guy: 35 Points
6. Trambak: 20 Points
7. Jeff: 15 Points

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These predictions are a little difficult for me to judge. I cover the UCL for NMA, so the EPL is not my wheelhouse. I have to admit that even after three seasons of following the league casually, I still don’t even recognize some of the names that received votes here. Nevertheless, I devised a clever plan.

MiQ’s rules: I will set a benchmark rating of 6.5 on www.whoscored.com to award zero points. Every 0.1 higher or lower will be earn a positive or negative 2 points. I have depended on whoscored.com for my inner-circle UCL fantasy system for many years, so I hope it translates to this novel purpose appropriately. And if it doesn’t, please note that appeals will not be heard, unless you can reach a higher power. :D

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David: Brenden Aaronson (6.41 rating —> -2 Points)

“Leeds’ new midfielder has reunited with Jesse Marsch, and he has the versatility to play multiple roles in his gaffer’s offense. It’s true he’s only 21 years old, but he has experience in the Champions League and has a good track record of goal contributions in the Austrian Bundesliga. I’m not sure whether he’ll be a viable EPL fantasy asset or not, but I expect to be impressed with his real-life football performances. Plus, ‘Merica!”

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James: Bruno Guimaraes (rating 7.21 —> 14 Points)

“I had to get a Newcastle player in here somewhere and this pick is solely the result of that unmitigated bias. That said, I do think he could be a gem this year. Expect goals, assists, excellent distribution, a tireless work rate and a surprisingly efficient rate of return for fantasy managers. My second choice would be Jadon Sancho. Again, the Ten Haag factor with a reliance on wide forwards will lead to Sancho finally getting back to his Dortmund form.”

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Chris: Djed Spence (Spence played for Rennes this season so Chris will not get any points)

“Neco Williams will not be a surprise since he is on everybody’s radar for a cheap defender. So instead I’ll go with Djed Spence. The summer transfer from Middlesbrough has a good chance to be the starting right wing-back for Tottenham from day one, and he costs only £4.5m in FPL. Spurs should deliver plenty of clean sheets, and Conte loves his wing backs to push forward, which brings chances for goals and assists, too. Of course, if Spence does not end up being the regular starter, forget I mentioned him. At the very least, Spence is someone to keep an eye on for sure.”

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PPQ: Riyad Mahrez (Rating 7.01 —> 10 Points)

“Not sure this is where he fits, and his talent is no secret, but with Jesus and Sterling gone, I think there will be more chances for Mahrez to shine. In 15 starts and 28 games, he scored 11 goals and had five assists. He will have even more chances to start now, and with the increased subbing, Mahrez (and others on Pep’s Roulette wheel) will have chances to make their impact even when they don’t start. I expect bigger numbers from him, especially as he will not be playing in the World Cup.”

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Jeff: Dean Henderson (Rating 6.57 —> 1 Point)

“Isn’t this an oxymoron, predicting a surprise? The best I can do is to go with someone who did well once before and then went off the boil. In Henderson’s case, he got long Covid and lost the Man United #1 spot to DDG. But now he’s on loan to newly-promoted Nottingham. So he has two strikes against him: whatever post-Covid damage he still suffers, plus he must play behind a defense new to the league. So any clean sheets or positive fantasy points will be a surprise.”

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Trambak: Ivan Perisic (6.74 —> 5 Points)

“The Premier League ain’t ready for this Croatian mastermind! Despite his rotational risks, I can see him work his way up to become a key player for Spurs this season. See our Spotlight here.”

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Guy: Timo Werner (The lad is back in Germany so no points for Guy)

“Last year he was one of the biggest disappointments, but I think he’s going to show much more this year. Perhaps having Sterling around will push him on too.”

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Stall: Sancho (Rating 6.82 —> 6 Points)

“Ok, I’ve got those rose-colored glasses on again. Splendid talent, still very young and now with a manager whose ideas perfectly match Sancho’s abilities. He will be in most fantasy teams through the season, and many will start with him on day one due to his fine preseason form.”

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Dhivakhar: Leon Bailey (Rating 6.61 —> 2 Points)

“Leon Bailey has been Aston Villa’s talisman in the preseason games so far. After a long spell out due to injury in the 2021-22 season, the Jamaican’s 2020-21 Bundesliga exploits seem to be forgetten by everyone, including the official FPL game, which prices him at a measly £5m. Bailey will make a mockery of that price tag if he stays fit.”

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Leaderboard:

James and PPQ close in on Dhivakhar with just one more category to go. Will one of them be able to pip him to the finish? And will Jeff have to settle for last place (again)?

1. Dhivakhar: 72 Points
2. James: 64 Points
3. PPQ: 60 Points
4. David: 53 Points
5. Stall: 51 Points
6. Olakunle, Chris: 45 Points
7. Guy: 35 Points
8. Trambak: 25 Points
9. Jeff: 16 Points

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We’ve reached the final category, and we will follow the same criteria as the previous one except the positive and negative points will be reversed. Here our contestants will want to see low scores on whoscored.com in order to win points.

Without further ado, here is the final round of scoring:

David: Luis Sinisterra (Rating 6.58 —> -2 Points)

“I’m sure he’s a fine player, but he’s been tagged as the replacement for Raphinha. That’s an almost certain set-up for disappointment. See our Spotlight here.”

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James: Mo Salah (Rating 7.16 —> -13 Points)

“For this one I think we are looking for a player who promises a lot for a big team and then delivers very little. If he stays, I can honestly say I don’t see Timo Werner having a great season although with Lukaku gone, he may get the chance to play centrally a bit more. This could lead to a significant goal return and he is always in the right place, but just not clinical enough up to this point for Chelsea.

But instead of Werner I’m going to opt for a really surprising choice here: Mo Salah. Hold on a sec, don’t try to crawl through your screen to choke me unconscious just yet! I just think with Mané gone and Salah having to work with two relatively new players in Nunez and Diaz, I can see his 20+ goals and 10+ assists dropping to a more normal level of 10-ish goals and 6-8 assists. Still not bad, but for him, those numbers would certainly be disappointing.”

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Chris: Erling Haaland (Rating 7.54 —> -21 Points)

“I’ve already delved into why Haaland will likely be a bust this season in a standalone piece that recently published, so be sure to read it for my thoughts on the subject.”

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PPQ: Raheem Sterling (Rating 6.74 —> -5 Points)

“There’s a lot of pressure on Sterling to be the striker that Chelsea so desperately needs. To justify his price he’s going to need to score and create goals. I’m just not sure he can live up to those expectations. See our Spotlight here.”

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Jeff: Paul Pogba (Seeing how other members are taking huge damage here, Jeff must be relieved to settle for a zero since Pogba played for Juventus this season)

“Ken’s all-time favorite isn’t even in the EPL anymore, but the petulant Frenchman still leaves a bad taste in our mouths!”

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Trambak: Cristiano Ronaldo (The Portu-geezer moved to Saudi Arabia six months ago after a tumultuous half-season at Old Trafford. Trambak does not win or lose any points here)

“I won’t say much more as I don’t want his fanboys spamming my Twitter. But Anthony Martial will elbow past him in the pecking order (oops!).”

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Guy: Cristiano Ronaldo (Nothing for Guy either!)

“I think Trambak has nailed this one.”

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Stall: Gabriel Jesus (Rating 7.42 —> -18 Points)

“At the time of writing he is the most-owned FPL player. Priced attractively at £8m, he has now been given a chance to be the main man at a big club. I still may have him in my side but I can see widespread panic when he doesn’t start well or doesn’t supply consistent fantasy returns. If that happens, the mass selling will see his price collapse as managers move on to the next big thing.”

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Dhivakhar: Darwin Núñez (Rating 6.79 —> -6 Points) - I feel that Nunez maybe the best answer here considering his 9 goals and 3 assists and only 19 starting appearances in EPL are not near good enough for a club like Liverpool. But my system is my system, so -6 it is.

“Yes, he scored four goals against RB Leipzig. Yes, he looked sharp. But, the Premier League is a different beast. Nunez will come good eventually, but don’t expect him to hit the ground running. The Uruguayan will need time to adapt to the unique demands of England’s top flight.”

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Final Standings:

Dhivakhar’s early lead keeps him at the top with several staff members taking a heavy hit in the last category. Most notably, Chris’ 21 negative points for picking Haaland as the most disappointing almost allowed Jeff to overtake him, but Pogba had to go to Juventus. The Frenchman barely played there due to injury and his overall rating of 6.36 meant just three points for Jeff — not enough to lift him off the bottom.

1. Dhivakhar: 66 Points
2. PPQ: 55 Points
3. James, David: 51 Points
4. Olakunle: 45 Points
5. Guy: 35 Points
6. Stall: 33 Points
7. Trambak: 25 Points
8. Chris: 24 Points
9. Jeff: 16 Points

So congratulations to Dhivakhar, and hard luck to PPQ, James and David, who seemed like they were within reach of Dhivakhar at every round.

As for Jeff, maybe the 2nd division of the NMA Staff Prediction League beckons?!

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What were your predictions a year ago? What would you have have gotten right, and what pitfalls would have victimized you? Do you have any early predictions for highly touted players who might end up warming the bench next season? Which players might have a pleasant surprise in store? Please log-in and share your thoughts in the comments!

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