Never Manage Alone: All Posts by Chris ManfrediThe Fantasy Soccer Bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/51007/nma-fav.png2023-08-01T08:00:00-07:00https://www.nevermanagealone.com/authors/chris-manfredi/rss2023-08-01T08:00:00-07:002023-08-01T08:00:00-07:00Attackers to Target and Avoid in FPL 2023-24
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<img alt="Arsenal FC v AFC Bournemouth - Premier League" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C6k82_gJ555_ZFT7CN_9nhXZWhI=/0x0:3912x2608/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72503060/1471248167.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>This Arsenal attacking trio greatly rewarded fantasy backers last season. Which players should we predict to perform likewise now? | Photo by David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Can we use trends from the past two seasons to identify the forwards and midfielders who look to be undervalued or overpriced for the upcoming campaign?</p> <p id="dTjszM">Forwards and attacking midfielders are the glory positions vital for success in FPL. But selecting the right ones can be dangerous to navigate, offering a bounty of points but generally at a higher price than defenders and goalkeepers. In theory, the decision is a simple formula: Grab players before or early on in the season who prove to be great values by improving from the past campaign, while avoiding or quickly dropping the ones who by contrast will end up being horrible busts at inflated prices after falling off from a recently prolific performance. Of course, it’s never as easy as we would like it to be. Actually, predicting those results is often pretty damn tricky. </p>
<p id="EPxzeP">Successful managers don’t always see into the future with perfect vision, but they do get more than their fair share of predictions right. Whether one relies more on intuition or experience, the decision making process for any journey is always helped by having a trusty road map from the onset. What factors should guide us, and which candidates will consequently emerge as good targets to grab or neglect before this upcoming campaign kicks off (or shortly thereafter)? </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="eq3uxf">
<h4 id="lwgP5L">How Likely (Or Unlikely) Is It For A Star Attacker to Replicate His Previous Success?</h4>
<p id="wXDWIl">I’m going to start by looking at the list of attacking players (forwards and midfielders) who scored 150 points or more during the 2021-22 campaign, and then compare their performances to the following 2022-23 season. </p>
<div id="bWqyTf"><div data-anthem-component="table:11979140"></div></div>
<p id="FjnKAc"><em>[NOTE: The above chart does not include </em><a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/"><em>Liverpool</em></a><em>’s Sadio Mané who scored 183 points in 2021-22 but did not play in the EPL in 2022-23.] </em></p>
<p id="iRVnLM">Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka and Bruno Fernandes not only repeated as 150+ point performers, but they actually improved their production. However, those three were outliers who bucked the trend. Of the 15 attackers who scored 150+ points in 2021-22 and remained in the EPL the following season, 12 (80%) suffered a decline in production in 2022-23. Overall (including those who improved), the average difference was a drop of 42.5 points, translating to a 23% plunge, along with a 1.08 drop in points per game (-19%). Ten players fell by 25+ points, with seven plummeting by 50+ points. </p>
<p id="PXGiW5">Is there a way we can identify which attacking studs from the last campaign are most likely to disappoint in this one? Is there a type of player we should have in mind for our “pass” list? Let’s focus on the stars who fell off from 2021-22 to 2022-23 and see if we can unearth some commonalities. After trimming down the list from above to laser in on the dozen 150+ point attackers from 2021-22 who declined in 2022-23, we see that the falloff club collectively dropped from an average of 186.3 down to 123.3 points (-34%) and from 5.53 down to 4.17 points per game (-25%).</p>
<div id="s4cPAW"><div data-anthem-component="table:11979187"></div></div>
<p id="zhO2h9">Now let’s widen our scope to include a few other categories to see if we can discern what is going on here. A good place to start is with pitch time. Surely if stars appeared in fewer games and suffered reduced minutes, that could explain why their production dropped.</p>
<div id="QrXiuF"><div data-anthem-component="table:11979179"></div></div>
<p id="1Y7WSG">The change in pitch time was definitely a factor in the production decline. The 12 players whose delivery fell off averaged a 12% reduction in games and a 13% dip in minutes. However, that falloff paled in comparison to the production deterioration, as that same dozen collectively suffered a 34% dropoff in total points and a 25% decline in points per game as mentioned. </p>
<p id="T74znM">Interestingly, the two players who deteriorated the most in points per game had vastly different situations with respect to their change in game time. Cristiano Ronaldo played 20 fewer games with an enormous dropoff in minutes, whereas Son Heung-min actually featured in one more game with a fairly minimal reduction in minutes. Furthermore, five players whose points production declined actually saw more minutes. </p>
<p id="Yxa2Vb">What does this mean? The reduction in game time is a component in the production decline, but it is not the deciding factor. Rather, there is more underfoot, so we need to dig deeper. Can we glean anything from the players’ ages? And what about the change in how their teams performed both with respect to attacking results and overall standing?</p>
<div id="Y8CGDu"><div data-anthem-component="table:11979194"></div></div>
<p id="vid2EW">A team’s production clearly has a huge impact on a player’s individual performance. Stars are the standout players on their teams, but they cannot do everything on their own. For those 12 players, their teams fell from an average of 75.2 down to 59.3 goals, a fall of nearly 16 goals, or 21%. Their teams’ standing in the table dropped from a collective 71.8 down to 56.6 points, a slide of 21%. Those 21% drops in team performance were significantly closer to the players’ 34% decline in FPL points and 25% slip in fantasy points per game than the players’ collective 12% reduction in games and 13% drop in minutes, and thus team performance would appear to be a more impactful factor than pitch time. </p>
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<img alt="Chelsea Training Session" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RHveUiw07LvffHPo9_3t0yoL8Q8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24805920/1244192319.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Raheem Sterling and Mason Mount paid a heavy price for a discombobulated Chelsea season.</figcaption>
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<p id="LHh7wB">Admittedly, there is the “chicken or the egg” question. If a team plays worse on the whole, then its star player will likely see a drop in production. Just the same, if a star’s production falls off, then the team will suffer as a result. However, while the two may go hand in hand, and while in several cases a team’s fall will be more due the the player’s decline, many of the individual calamities above appear to be examples of disastrous overarching team situations:</p>
<ul>
<li id="pXBRQO">Liverpool suddenly got old in midfield and central defense, and not even Mohamed Salah could maintain his level of greatness. </li>
<li id="ZQT5KI">
<a href="https://bracethehammer.sbnation.com/">West Ham</a> imploded for a glut of reasons, and Jarrod Bowen was left floundering. </li>
<li id="YxlRU8">Chelsea was completely discombobulated following the sale of the team, the introduction of not-ready-for-primetime manager Graham Potter and eventually his short-lived deer-in-headlights replacement Frank Lampard, leaving Mason Mount one of the many Blues’ players lost in the shuffle. </li>
<li id="Lq8JCy">Tangentially, Raheem Sterling’s change of scenery from <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a> to Chelsea proved disastrous.</li>
<li id="FYX4NL">Wilfried Zaha toiled for a Crystal Palace team that lost its mojo under sophomore manager Patrick Vieira, who was sacked on the eve of spring. </li>
<li id="dUoatU">Meanwhile, James Maddison (<a href="https://fosseposse.sbnation.com">Leicester City</a>)...</li>
<li id="VzqJeg">...and James Ward-Prowse (<a href="https://stmarysmusings.sbnation.com">Southampton</a>) plied their trade for previously solid squads that abruptly turned so putrid that they ended up relegated. </li>
</ul>
<p id="vSOdMb">Aside from that, the average age of the dozen 150+ point scoring attacking stars of 2021-22 whose production declined in 2022-23 was 28.0 years old at the start of the latter campaign. Eight (67%) of those players were 27 or older, and four were 30+. Sure, 27 or 29 or 31 years in age may not seem ancient to the average fan, but it often represents the autumn of a football player’s prime. So an “advanced” age of 27 or older seems to be a significant factor in production decline.</p>
<p id="upQfX7">But before we harness the above information to gauge which players may be due for falloff, let’s look at the flip side of the coin.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="prRisI">
<h4 id="6FbzUT">How Likely (or Unlikely) is it For Attackers to Make Huge Improvements?</h4>
<p id="m7mxdF">We have seen that it is extremely common for attacking players to enjoy a prolific season and then suffer significant deterioration in production the next campaign. But what about the opposite direction? Is it about the same likelihood, or different, that by the end of the subsequent season, the fantasy studs atop of the performance ranks will have gone from relative obscurity into suddenly joining the elite producers? Let’s look at the list of 150+ point attackers from 2022-23 and compare their performance to how they fared in the prior 2021-22 season.</p>
<div id="nVoSIh"><div data-anthem-component="table:11979736"></div></div>
<p id="BFfG6l"><em>[NOTE: The above chart does not include Manchester City’s Erling Haaland, who scored 272 points in 2022-23 but did not play in the EPL in 2021-22.]</em></p>
<p id="vM41c3">In the introductory 150+ point attacker chart from 2021-22, we saw that a high proportion of those players fell off the next season. Now looking at the 150+ point attacker chart from 2022-23, we see that a similarly sized chunk of those stars enjoyed significant improvement from the prior campaign. </p>
<p id="1u8dz4">Of the 18 attackers who had also played in the EPL the prior season, 15 of them (83%) enjoyed a more prolific output compared to 2021-22. The only three who fell off were Salah, Son and De Bruyne. Overall (including those who declined), the 18 attackers jumped from an average of 132.7 points in 2021-22 up to 182.1 points in 2022-23 (a spike of 37%) and from 4.30 up to 5.06 ppg (+18%). </p>
<p id="3BaUHz">Furthermore, only six players — <a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com">Tottenham</a>’s Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka, Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne and <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Manchester United</a>’s Bruno Fernandes — repeated as elite attacking performers, appearing on the 150+ point list in both seasons. Clearly there is a heavy amount of season-to-season variance in fantasy delivery by attacking players.</p>
<p id="u2K8Xh">Drilling down, let’s focus on the attacking stars of 2022-23 who performed better than 2021-22. Taking together the 15 150+ point attackers who improved their production from the prior season, they averaged a rise from 111.3 up to 180.2 points (+62%) and from 3.67 up to 4.99 ppg (+37%).</p>
<div id="Lyab9D"><div data-anthem-component="table:11980061"></div></div>
<p id="3LHOy7">As investigated with attackers whose production declined, what insights can we glean from these particular players who improved? And on top of that, are these tendencies common (but in the reverse) between both declining attackers and improving players?</p>
<div id="HK9ZUv"><div data-anthem-component="table:11980067"></div></div>
<p id="JuLGOg">Three players — Manchester United’s Marcus Rashford, Arsenal’s Granit Xhaka and Crystal Palace’s Eberechi Eze — played both 10+ more games and 1,200+ more minutes than the prior season. For the most part, though, the gains in that department were more muted. For the players who scored 150+ points in 2022-23 and improved from 2021-22, they averaged a rise from 30.3 up to 36.1 games (+19%) and from 2,320 up to 2,878’ (+24%). Increased pitch time helps explain the production gains, but only partly, given how much proportionally greater the improvement levels were in points and ppg. </p>
<p id="9LE1Nw">Let’s keep digging.</p>
<div id="LbtlUX"><div data-anthem-component="table:11981548"></div></div>
<p id="FSiHmh"><em>[NOTE: In the above chart, Trossard’s team is assigned as Brighton in 2022-23 since he played more minutes for Brighton than for Arsenal.]</em></p>
<p id="JhxLTK">The first thing that pops out is the attackers’ average age of 25.8 who improved from 2021-22 to 2022-23 and joined or remained in the 150+ club, which is significantly younger than the age of 28.0 for those who had been in that group and declined. Eight of the players who improved were 26 or younger, and six were 24 or younger. While several who advanced were 27 or older, it appears that there is something to the idea of attackers coming into their own somewhere in the 20 to 26 range. </p>
<p id="491j5b">Notably, I included 27 in the cutoff for decline earlier. If 27 is also included here, that leaves 10 of the 15 players who improved (67%) at 27 or younger. Again taking into account the earlier section regarding attackers whose delivery fell off, 27 seems to be on the fence, the age where it could easily go either way in terms of improvement or decline. </p>
<p id="cSJlcT">It is also not a surprise that the reverse scenario from the decliners again applies with respect to the players’ teams performance. Of the 15 players whose individual production rose, eight of their teams enjoyed scoring boosts of 20+ goals, and nine were up by 15+ points in the table. On average the players’ sides increased from 53.1 up to 68.3 goals (+29%) along with a rise from 57.1 up to 68.9 points (+22%) in the table for their sides. Those fell far short of the individual players’ 62% jump in FPL points and 37% in points per game, but the gains in team scoring and points on balance were closer to the differences in players’ fantasy scoring than were the increase in the attackers’ games and minutes played. Whether improving or declining, it is evident that the stars’ fortunes are very heavily intertwined with their teams’ fates. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="lXpddN">
<h4 id="ORVe6e">Which Attackers Offer Underpriced Opportunities for a Fantasy Jump?</h4>
<p id="JhAPCE">For attacking stars who earn 150+ points in a particular campaign, chances are high that their production was significantly lower in the prior season. That means that we can profit from grabbing lower-priced diamonds in the rough. Let’s try to identify good prospects which may pay off handsomely using the proclivities we have discerned above. Who should expect to play more games/minutes, and which players may benefit from team improvement based on a number of different factors? Are there any additional elements which could result in a boost of an attacker’s output? </p>
<p id="jm8S8d"><strong>EXPANDED PLAYING TIME</strong></p>
<p id="sgilUw">Significantly greater minutes for Crystal Palace’s Eberechi Eze as he returned from injury accompanied a boost in fantasy production for 2022-23. <strong>26-year old</strong> <strong>Arsenal FW Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) </strong>missed a good chunk of the season with injury, scoring 125 points in only 26 games; if he can manage to stay healthy and feature in 35 games, that would prorate to 168 points which would have been good for the fifth-best total at the position last campaign. </p>
<p id="5GN45x"><strong>26-year old </strong><a href="https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com"><strong>Everton</strong></a><strong> FW Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) </strong>has been plagued by injury the past two seasons, scoring just 104 points in 2,447’ across that time. However, if he can stay healthy and manage 30+ starts, there will be hope that he can rediscover his 2020/21 form when he scored 16 goals to go along with 6 fantasy assists for a 165 point tally. Sean Dyche and the Toffee faithful will certainly have their fingers crossed. </p>
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<img alt="Brighton &amp; Hove Albion v AFC Bournemouth - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/a4jIBP0gzbcCx7Qt_JRmviKv8OY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24809597/1462716083.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Kaoru Mitoma broke onto the EPL scene last season. Could there be yet another surge from Brighton’s youthful attack?</figcaption>
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<p id="c05OpO">Exciting<strong> 26-year old Brighton</strong> <strong>MF Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m)</strong> scored 138 points in only 2,311 minutes, taking a bit of time to bed into the XI. If he boosts his pitch time up to 2,800’ next campaign while keeping up his level of production, that would translate to 167 points, a steal at his cost.</p>
<p id="MpfeAh">A young player coming into his own, Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli improved greatly last season thanks to becoming relied on regularly. Looking again at Brighton, if any of their bright-eyed prospects transition from platoon players to regular starters, they should pay off nicely. <strong>19-year old MF Julio Enciso (£5.5m)</strong> scored 4 goals and added 3 fantasy assists in only 794’, while <strong>18-year old FW Evan Ferguson (£6.0m)</strong> notched 6 scores with 2 helpers in just 942’; the younger pair will be somewhat risky adds to begin the fantasy season, so it may be good to wait and see if they can string together a run of starts before jumping in.</p>
<p id="ZqNAP4">While playing second fiddle to Erling Haaland, <strong>23-year old Manchester City FW Julián Álvarez (£6.5m)</strong> still managed to produce 103 points in only 1,448’. With right winger Riyad Mahrez (Al Ahli) and attacking midfielder İlkay Gündoğan (Barcelona) already having transferred out and Bernardo Silva rumored to want away as well, there should be more minutes open in attack and Alvarez could become a regular starter alongside Haaland rather than being used primarily as a back-up. Alternately, <strong>23-year old MF Phil Foden (£7.5m)</strong> would be a nice option if he instead is the main beneficiary of the attacking departures. Foden has scored between 135 and 142 points each of the past three seasons, never cracking 2,200’. Fantasy managers will most assuredly want to keep an eye on who, if anyone, Man City adds in the attacking realm before the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/transfer-rumors">transfer window</a> closes.</p>
<p id="kJq0Ol">Marcus Rashford toiled largely as a back-up in 2021-22 under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick, but Erik ten Hag returned him to the XI in 2022-23 as the Cristiano Ronaldo experiment fizzled out. Given the long suspension of Ivan Toney, <strong>26-year old Brentford FW Yoane Wissa (£6.0m)</strong> should become a regular starter for the first half of the season. The offense may not be quite as prolific without Toney occupying the attention of defenders, but Wissa has scored an eye-popping 208 points in 2,855’ minutes over the past two seasons.</p>
<p id="cqxJEE">~</p>
<p id="z3jGWk"><strong>A NEW MANAGER AND/OR A MORE ATTACKING ROLE </strong> </p>
<p id="wciQqZ"><a href="https://7500toholte.sbnation.com">Aston Villa</a> forward Ollie Watkins is coming off a rebound season in which he flourished again after the October 2022 coaching change from a novice Steven Gerrard to the very much more accomplished Unai Emery who had managed Sevilla, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal and Villareal over the past decade. It was a similar experience for Brighton’s Pascal Groß as the team saw Graham Potter depart, although the coaching enhancement was not nearly as obvious at the time. Replacing Potter with up-and-coming Roberto De Zerbi following his successful spell at Shakhtar Donetsk, where he had the team sitting atop the Ukrainian Premier League when the 2021-22 season abruptly ended, proved to be a master stroke by the Brighton brass as the team’s offense improved along with its standing in the table. </p>
<p id="nIIJkI">In a story of revolving chairs, Chelsea has now made a major upgrade from Potter, whose best result had been a 9th place finish with Brighton, to Mauricio Pochettino who took Tottenham to a <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a> final and followed that up by helming Paris Saint-Germain, leading the team to a Champions League semifinal appearance and handling the superstar trio of Kylian Mbappé, Lionel Messi and Neymar. There has been plenty of turnover during the current summer transfer season, with attackers Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Kai Havertz, Mason Mount and Christian Pulisic already having been shipped out. Following a horrorshow 2022-23 after moving from Manchester City to Chelsea, <strong>28 year old MF Raheem Sterling (£7.0m)</strong> will look to rediscover his form under an attack-minded Pochettino. The winger scored 150+ points at every turn from 2017/18 through 2021/22, boasting three 200+ point efforts. </p>
<p id="4xpLGD">After sputtering along in his early times with the team, Mikel Arteta turbocharged Arsenal’s offense in 2022-23, providing a more attacking role to midfielders Granit Xhaka (pushing forward more) and Martin Odegaard (given the keys to the attack as the driver behind everything).</p>
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<img alt="Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea FC - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yD8RNhqbIBgaSw9HWksGDYQW-Os=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24809605/1469757661.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Tottenham Hotspur FC/Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski will try for improved fortunes under a new attack-minded manager.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="RD5C7q">I am not saying that Ange Postecoglou is a <em>better</em> coach than Antonio Conte. But he most certainly is a much <em>different</em> type of manager, one who could greatly influence the fortunes of the Spurs offensive stars. Whereas Conte’s Tottenham scored the fifth-most goals (70) in the EPL in 2023-24, 24 behind first place Manchester City’s 94, Postecoglou’s Celtic scored 114 times, 21 ahead of Rangers’ second-best 93. And no, again I’m not saying that Tottenham will score 100+ goals in the EPL. </p>
<p id="3LLK8Y">But Tottenham’s attack will look to make a bold transformation from the methodical, reactive, back-foot counterattacking process of Conte to the more modern high-energy, pressing, ball-dominant style of Postecoglou. With any success, <strong>Spurs Midfielders Son Heung-min (£9.0m) and Dejan Kulusevski (£7.0m) </strong>will hope to enjoy bounce-back seasons after falling off harshly in Tottenham’s miserable 2022-23 campaign. Son scored 225+ points each in 2020-21 and 2021-22, while Kulusevski delivered 99 points in only 1,259’ in 2021-22 after coming over as a winter transfer. Both are also returning from an injury-plagued 2022-23, though Kulusevski is the one who should see more game time as a result; Son played through a hernia last season, waiting until this summer to get an operation. In terms of age, Son will be more of a risk at age 31, while Kulusevski is only 23.</p>
<p id="JDTArB">~</p>
<p id="WW8XAz"><strong>A MOVE TO A NEW, BETTER TEAM </strong> </p>
<p id="GYQd7a">Leandro Trossard upgraded from Brighton to Arsenal mid-season, but there were no examples of 2022-23 150-point attackers who changed teams within the EPL in the summer of 2022. However, the prior year we did see that situation with Diogo Jota, who transferred from Wolves after the 2020-21 season (36 team goals, 45 points) to Liverpool in 2021-22 (94 goals, 92 points), as the Portuguese attacker upped his personal FPL delivery from 86 points (albeit in limited minutes) up to 175 points. </p>
<p id="CdRMmb">After a short move across London, the <strong>24-year old Arsenal MF Kai Havertz (£7.5m)</strong> should benefit by being surrounded by the Gunners’ much more dangerous attack (88 goals in 2022-23) and better all around team (84 points) than seen at Chelsea last season. After scoring 12 goals with 10 fantasy assists in just over 3,300’ across 2020-21 and 2021-22, Havertz was one of many Blues who floundered in 2022-23, with the team scoring only 38 goals and finishing with a disastrous total of 44 points. Arteta is expected to install Havertz into the Xhaka role following the veteran’s departure, and the offensive-minded Havertz should be expected to perform that role to greater effect than the more defensive-leaning Xhaka. Havertz has never scored more than 112 points in a season, but his numbers prorate fairly well; he has scored 305 points in 5,879’ which would translate to 145 points in 2,800’. If he makes the leap, he could easily join the 150 point club, perhaps by a comfortable margin.</p>
<p id="U0kDZm">Likewise, <strong>24-year old MF Mason Mount (£7.0m) </strong>moves from Chelsea, as he goes to Manchester United which scored 58 goals and tallied 75 points last season. I reckon it’s safe to say that it will be a tremendous upgrade going from Graham Potter to Erik ten Hag, who oversaw a delightfully attacking and successful Ajax side prior to his first season with the Red Devils. If Mount can rediscover his 11 goal/11 fantasy assist form of 2021-22, he will make his fantasy backers very happy. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Leicester City v West Ham United - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bzaNvP7Hf_NYRbvl3g1D1FaJcLc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24809807/1494214793.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Michael Regan/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Recent Leicester teammates Harvey Barnes and James Maddison now both have an eye toward success at new EPL clubs.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="a5nerv">In 2023-24, <strong>26-year old MF James Maddison (£7.5m)</strong> moves from relegated Leicester to a team in the top half of the table where he will look to run the show in a Postecoglou system which should fit him like a glove. Maddison scored 181 points in 2021-22 for the Foxes and the hope will be that the playmaking midfielder can rediscover that level of output with dazzling Spurs such as Son, Kulusevski and Kane (if he stays) surrounding him.</p>
<p id="UYIDBI"><strong>25-year old MF Harvey Barnes (£6.5m)</strong> likewise heads from Leicester to an even better squad than Maddison’s Spurs in the form of <a href="https://cominghomenewcastle.sbnation.com">Newcastle</a>. Tottenham scored slightly more goals last season (70) than Newcastle (68), but the Magpies finished higher in the table with 71 points compared to 60 for Spurs. Barnes has scored 125+ FPL points in each of the past four seasons with the Foxes, offering the tempting possibility of breaking into the 150+ club if the left winger can start regularly for a rapidly improving, suddenly ambitious Newcastle side under Eddie Howe. The transfer of Allan Saint-Maximin to Al Ahli will help Barnes’ chances, although it will be a concern that Howe could install winter addition Anthony Gordon as the preferred starter.</p>
<p id="TWCtEp">~</p>
<p id="Su0RER"><strong>BEING SURROUNDED BY BETTER TALENT IN AN IMPROVED TEAM </strong> </p>
<p id="firstHeading">Prior to last season, Miguel Almirón had shown only occasional flashes of brilliance as a generally unspectacular performer for his time at Newcastle, scoring a total of 9 goals with 6 fantasy assists in roughly 8,000 minutes covering three and a half seasons as the Magpies finished in 13th, 13th, 12th and 11th place. In 2022-23, as Newcastle (under new-ish, very rich ownership) further added high quality players including forward Alexander Isak, central defender Sven Botman and goalkeeper Nick Pope, Almirón exploded for 11 goals and 4 fantasy assists from his right wing position in under 2,500’, helping fuel the Magpies’ rise to the 4th spot. It may not have been a new team, but it sure felt like one.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Aston Villa v Brighton &amp; Hove Albion - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qdlJ4h8O5VESoyYVHfwiiYxEcOQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24814061/1258251032.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Andrew Kearns - CameraSport via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>An improved surrounding cast could help Jacob Ramsey make a leap this season.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="3hgBgB">The Villans currently seem to be somewhat emulating Newcastle’s year-ago summer in adding a bevy of high quality players this time around, with right winger Moussa Diaby (from Bayer Leverkusen), central midfielder Youri Tielemans (Leicester) and central defender Pau Torres (Villareal) having already come over. In that vein, it makes sense to monitor <strong>22-year old Aston Villa MF Jacob Ramsey (£6.0m) </strong>as the beneficiary of a more potent attack and improved team. After going from 109 points in 2,465’ in 2021/22 up to 135 points in 2,634, it is tempting to picture further progression in a natural trajectory for the young starlet. </p>
<p id="iHaubI">John McGinn, Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara should face added competition for playing time with the arrival of Tielemans in central midfield. Likewise, Emiliano Buendia and Leon Bailey might see their impact blunted by Diaby at right wing. However, Ramsey seems to have only Philippe Coutinho for competition at left wing, and while Coutinho was a fantastic force several years ago, at 32 now he looks to be an impact sub rather than a starter. Ramsey is scheduled to be sidelined until mid-September with injury, however, so we will have to wait a bit before considering him for our fantasy teams. </p>
<p id="8ws3a2">~</p>
<p id="wwMWR1"><strong>GAINING PENALTY KICK OPPORTUNITIES </strong> </p>
<p id="JkrTpz">An easy path to a fantasy boost comes in the form of added penalty kick chances. As Cristiano Ronaldo suffered reduced playing time to start last season and was eventually released by Manchester United in November 2022, Bruno Fernandes reclaimed the primary PK designation from his Portuguese compatriot. After failing to convert a single pen in 2021-22, Bruno was successful on both of his EPL tries from the spot in 2022-23. Those two extra goals may not sound like much, but it was certainly an element which helped Fernandes increase his output from 151 up to 176 points. </p>
<p id="6zQEws">It may be unexpected since I just mentioned him as having already benefited last season from increased penalty kick scoring, but I’m actually going to start with<strong> 28-year old Manchester United MF Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m)</strong> as a strong candidate for improvement in this category in the upcoming campaign. Why? Because Manchester United drew just three penalty kicks total in the EPL in 2022-23, and as mentioned Fernandes only took two of those. This comes after the team drew 3, 12, 14, 11, and 5 (an average of 9) PKs in the prior five seasons. While it is not out of the question that the Red Devils will only draw three again as happened in both 2017/18 and 2022/23, we can more reasonably expect somewhere in the range of 5 to 11. Let’s proffer that United draw eight or nine, Bruno takes seven or eight and scores five to seven of them. Abracadabra, that’s a good deal more fantasy points!</p>
<p id="GSQHz1">Ivan Toney scored six out of seven penalties he took last season. As mentioned, Toney is suspended until January. The beneficiary looks to be <strong>24-year old Brentford MF Bryan Mbeumo (£6.5m)</strong>. Mbeumo scored 150 points last season, and there should be solid expectation of that tally rising further in 2023-24.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="England v North Macedonia: Group C - UEFA EURO 2024 Qualifying Round" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/E-z717WP31-trmML4yRLMVDPorY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24814058/1499959257.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Eberechi Eze is among those who fantasy managers hope will be boosted to greater heights by added penalty kick responsibility.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="rQD2SC">Wilfried Zaha missed both of his penalty kicks in the EPL last season, and now has departed to Galatasaray. The only other PK was taken and coverted by <strong>25-year old Crystal Palace MF Eberechi Eze (£6.5m)</strong>, who will be expected to take over the #1 status. After delivering 159 points last season, Eze could still be on the rise given more “freebies” from the spot. </p>
<p id="IOPEbs">It was a disaster from the spot last season for the Tricky Trees, who converted only three of six attempts as Brennan Johnson was one for three and Andre Ayew missed his only try. But<strong> 23-year old Nottingham Forest MF Morgan Gibbs-White (£6.0m)</strong> was two for two and should be in line for #1 duty in 2023-24. After scoring 145 points last season, a few more conversions from the spot would easily push him into the 150+ point club. However, a word of caution is advised; Forest only managed 38 goals last season, so expecting the team to draw a half dozen PKs again may be wishful thinking. </p>
<p id="PoUFt9">I would be remiss not to mention the Brighton situation, but with a caveat, as it is tricky. Alexis Mac Allister took six penalties in the EPL as the Segulls’ primary PK taker in 2022-23. With Mac Allister having gone to Liverpool, that duty could be handed to Pascal Groß who is five for eight in his EPL career. If he continues at that poor success rate, he will be at risk of losing the assignment quickly. It may be worth waiting to see who successfully takes up the mantle for Brighton. Alternately, the designee could be striker Danny Welbeck, but Welbeck has not managed 2,000+ minutes in any season since 2011/12. If it ends up being Evan Ferguson (who converted his only opportunity in the EFL Cup), that would be another good reason to target the young forward. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="tb9MR0">
<h4 id="l1ipOz">Which Players Look to be Overpriced Candidates for Fantasy Falloff/Failure?</h4>
<p id="dm1omb">Yes, some star attackers will replicate or even improve their performance next season, but we are faced with the likelihood that most will fall off. At this early stage of the 2023-24 FPL campaign, you are paying for players largely based on their 2022-23 performances. Given the trend of production decline witnessed above, loading up on too many high-priced studs and expecting them to deliver the same production again is a serious risk. </p>
<p id="24Zgtc">Let’s turn to tagging candidates for decline who may prove to be poor investments and thus should be avoided, applying the factors we have discerned above (age, expected game time, change in team/team quality/manager, etc.).</p>
<p id="pAhcpr">~</p>
<p id="TXNkCN"><strong>COMING OFF A CAREER YEAR</strong></p>
<p id="AMrY7D">It can be tricky to predict which players will come out of nowhere and make the leap into stardom. But it is probably easier to gauge who has likely just enjoyed a career year with a seeming inevitability that there is nowhere to go but down. This is what the charts above tell us, which is backed up by the “one hit wonder” stories we see all the time. Surely everybody remembers examples of cautionary tales such as these from the past decade:</p>
<ul>
<li id="Gj67wh">Swansea’s Michu (18 goals in 2012/13, 2 goals in 2013/14)</li>
<li id="vZe7oV">West Brom’s Saido Berahino (14 goals in 2014/15, 4 goals in 2015/16)</li>
<li id="Bj2cZa">West Ham’s Dimitri Payet (9 goals & 12 assists in 2015/16, 2 goals & 7 assists in 2016/17)</li>
<li id="eNVttk">Watford’s Odion Ighalo (16 goals in 2015/16, 1 goal in 2016/17)</li>
<li id="x8s0xJ">Southampton’s Danny Ings (22 goals in 2019/20, 12 goals in 2020/21) </li>
</ul>
<p id="i9YOiH">In 2022-23, that “flash in the pan” phenomenon would seem a likely label for <strong>29-year old Newcastle midfielder Miguel Almirón (£6.5m)</strong>. After never notching more than 4 goals or 2 assists any of his prior campaigns with the Magpies, the right winger suddenly exploded for 11 goals and 4 assists last season. In fantasy terms, after averaging 88 points in 2,384’ for his past three full seasons (2019/20 - 2021/22), he delivered 158 points in 2,458’ for his 2022/23 breakout. It’s difficult to imagine Almiron keeping up such an outstanding level of finishing quality that seemingly came out of nowhere, especially at his age, which as established, can be a red flag. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Rangers v Newcastle United - Pre-Season Friendly" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ah1Dp2R_X3A8ETWLl7H2VghPqvQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24809803/1554015711.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mark Runnacles/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Miguel Almiron was a phenom last season, but was he a one-hit wonder?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="YezMRy">Unlike Almiron, <strong>30-year old Tottenham FW Harry Kane (£12.5m) </strong>did not suddenly emerge out of the blue. Even so, Kane scored a career high 30 goals and 263 fantasy points last season, much better than his prior best of 242 points and only the second time he had tallied 225+ points. It is almost inevitable that the Spurs superstar will fall off the heady heights of 2022-23, particularly given his age. Kane may still prove worthy of his dear price, but it’s very possible that he will not, and that would be the case should he fall below 225 points. Of course, the Tottenham talisman is seemingly want-away to <a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com">Bayern Munich</a>, Manchester United, or some other greener (trophy-winning) pasture this summer, so we will have to see how that situation plays out. [If Kane were to transfer out of Tottenham, 26-year old MF Richarlison (£7.0m) would offer a tempting opportunity for major improvement should the Brazilian prove the replacement as starter up front.] </p>
<p id="RJhRSU">After Cristiano Ronaldo departed Old Trafford, fans everywhere wondered how his 18 goals would be replaced. Well, essentially they were just about equaled by <strong>25-year old Manchester United MF Marcus Rashford’s (£9.0m)</strong>’s 17 scores which matched a career high; correspondingly, fantasy managers benefited from his best- ever haul of 205 points. Might Rashford improve further? Of course he could. Rashford is the centerpiece of the Red Devils’ attack and he’s coming into his prime at 25. </p>
<p id="FuHEEu">But the problem for me is that I don’t think Erik ten Hag wants Rashford to be the focal point of the offense. Ideally I think he’d really prefer a center forward to net 15-25 goals, mix in 10-15 from Rashford, another 8-12 from incoming Mason Mount plus 5-10 from penalties etc. by Bruno Fernandes. Young newcomer Rasmus Højlund may not be a ready-made starter at striker right away (unlike Harry Kane, who ten Hag had reportedly wanted), so ten Hag may instead need Jadon Sancho and/or Antony to shake off their “bust” labels and take a big step up in trying to spread the burden. </p>
<p id="lMWRja">Long story short, I think that Rashford is likely due for a regression to the mean. As with Kane, it could be only a matter of how much of a slip is coming. Even if he still manages 190+ points, Rashford can bring value. But if he returns to the sub-180 point level as was his previous norm, he is probably better off avoiding given his price tag.</p>
<p id="zhxkr4">~</p>
<p id="AXndcU"><strong>AGE-RELATED CONCERNS </strong> </p>
<p id="IHPcLB">As mentioned, <strong>32-year old Brighton MF Pascal Groß (£6.5m)</strong> may become the new primary PK taker for the Seagulls, which would be a boon for his productivity. But also as mentioned, even if that is the case, he might just as easily lose that designation should he keep up his poor success rate from the spot. Groß dazzled on his entry to the EPL with a 164 point outlay in 2017/18, but in the four following seasons never managed 120 points, so his 159 point performance in 2022/23 appears to be an outlier. Furthermore, his age is a serious concern, so falloff back to the sub-150 point level would seem to be in the cards for him. </p>
<p id="Tuf8Hk">~</p>
<p id="558J4h"><strong>NEW TO PREMIER LEAGUE</strong></p>
<p id="YcIxhC">As the world’s richest league, the EPL is no stranger to plundering the rest of the globe for established big names along with up-and-coming starlets. This season is no exception, as there is no shortage of exciting incoming attacking prospects for fantasy managers to salivate over: <strong>Chelsea FWs Christopher Nkunku (£7.5m, coming over from RB Leipzig) and Nicolas Jackson (£7.0m, Villareal)</strong>, <strong>Brighton FW Joao Pedro (£5.5m, Watford),</strong> <strong>Aston Villa MF Moussa Diaby (£6.5m, Bayer Leverkusen)</strong>, and <strong>Newcastle United MF Sandro Tonali (£5.5m).</strong> Tonali is a defensive midfielder, but did supply 2 goals and 7 assists in Serie A last season, and he is the same price as Andreas Pereira (4 goals, 10 fantasy assists for Fulham) among others. Further offensive stars to tempt FPL aficionados will surely trickle in before the summer window closes. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Brighton &amp; Hove Albion v Chelsea FC - Pre-Season Friendly" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DmJUG-U9XJSz0C5UGFYoXskZ69Q=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24819425/1572072119.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Chelsea’s Christopher Nkunku is a popular fantasy add, but players new to the EPL usually struggle.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="4EJguB">However, the charts above do not imply a good chance of success for the newbies. Among the 35 instances of attacking players who scored 150+ points in 2021-22 or 2022-23, Cristiano Ronaldo (2021-22) and Erling Haaland (2022-23) accounted for the only two occurrences (6%) who did not play in the EPL the prior season. Yup, that’s only one newcomer (or returner) per season who proved an attacking success. While it would not be a complete shock if two or more ended up faring well, there is no guarantee that there will even be one triumph every year. So I would urge a word of caution and suggest waiting to see if any of this season’s arrivals actually hit the ground running before splashing your cash on them. Most arrivals take time to bed in, if they ever do.</p>
<p id="PdLNY9">~</p>
<p id="pNdPHD"><strong>LOSING PENALTY KICK OPPORTUNITIES</strong></p>
<p id="JocAPn">New <strong>24-year old Liverpool MF Alexis Mac Allister (£6.0m)</strong> is an outstanding player, and he is going to a bigger team where he will be surrounded by better players. However, he looks to be overpriced this season, because his fantasy production will be expected to plummet. Why? Mac Allister scored 10 goals last season for Brighton, and six of those came from the penalty spot. Mo Salah is the primary PK taker for Liverpool and should remain so. Barring injury or an implosion in the Egyptian superstar’s penalty prowess, it would be a shock for Mac Allister to come close to his 140 point output in 2022-23. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="kc51un">
<p id="ICF2YV">[<strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong>Player statistics/prices/ages and team scoring/standings info used in this post came via official <a href="https://fantasy.premierleague.com/"><strong>Fantasy Premier League</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.fantasyfootballpundit.com/fantasy-premier-league-player-stats/"><strong>Fantasy Football Pundit</strong></a>, official <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/stats"><strong>Premier League stats centre</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/"><strong>transfermarkt</strong></a> or <a href="https://www.espn.com/soccer/"><strong>ESPN</strong></a>.]</p>
<p id="FtgQgM">~</p>
<p id="vCN6ke">Don’t forget to hop into our <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/7/20/23801974/nma-fantrax-epl-leagues-are-open-2023">Fantrax </a>and <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/7/11/23791578/nmas-fpl-mini-league-is-open">FPL </a>mini-leagues if you haven’t yet!</p>
<p id="qebyvK">~</p>
<p id="Td9828"><em>Which star attackers from last year do you think are well worth the price, and who are you instead avoiding like the plague this season with the expectation of falloff? On the other hand, what more unheralded offensive players do you think will improve and outperform their cost? Is there anybody not featured above who you warrant deserves mention? </em></p>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/8/1/23804231/attackers-to-target-and-avoid-in-fpl-2023-24-midfielder-striker-forward-best-value-worst-bustChris Manfredi2023-06-11T08:00:00-07:002023-06-11T08:00:00-07:00Champions League Fantasy 2022-23: How Did You Do?
<figure>
<img alt="FC Internazionale v Manchester City FC - UEFA Champions League Final 2022/23" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/B4SBh2cakc46Un7Wl2V3pm0eRco=/0x0:4752x3168/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72360267/1258597192.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>There may only be one trophy, but hopefully plenty of fantasy managers felt like winners in some fashion this season. | Photo by Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Did you succeed with a new approach as I did? What lessons from this campaign can we apply next season?</p> <p id="p7bNjY">With another exciting <a href="https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uclfantasy/my-team">UEFA Champions League fantasy</a> season in the books, a hearty pat on the back is in order to everyone for playing, with a huge congratulations for those who did brilliantly. A big bravo to $uper $aud who won the NMA league (and finished #42 in the world) with a phenomenal total of 1,065 points! Below is the list of the top 10 finishers in our group of more than 2,000 managers:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hjDidocJ5h4T-FdZO-juMJZMmRY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24717169/Screen_Shot_2023_06_10_at_7.51.00_PM.png">
<cite>Screen grab from the official UEFA Champion League platform.</cite>
<figcaption>The NMA League top 10 list.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="vj3LK5">I have suffered more than my share of fantasy failures along with sprinkling in several successes now and then. But hey, let’s forget about the busts for the time being! In this instance, I may now joyously add the latest season to my list of personal bests: </p>
<ul>
<li id="lvHNjS">#53 worldwide rank in Yahoo Premier League fantasy for 2013-14</li>
<li id="2IUXfo">#2,382 global standing in official FPL (Fantasy Premier League) for 2019-20 (out of 7m+ managers)</li>
<li id="4sRMKo">#80 overall finish in UEFA Champions League fantasy for 2022-23 (among 2m+)</li>
</ul>
<p id="VMjpvI">So how did I end up performing so well during this campaign? Of course, there was plenty of skill involved, but I would be lying if I said that luck didn’t play a heavy hand of its own. While I kept much of my standard strategy, a huge part was being open to change and mixing in some new approaches. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="bFxRoG">
<h2 id="TeOgt7">WHAT I DID DIFFERENTLY THIS SEASON</h2>
<p id="DhpThx">I did a couple of big things differently this season, and thankfully they both paid off.</p>
<p id="NIiyPn">~</p>
<h3 id="112eGB">Using My Wildcard Chip in the Group Stage</h3>
<p id="EDdBt3">In the past, I played it safe with my chip usage, using the strategy to hold onto my Wildcard chip until I needed it. I always worried that there would be a point when I would suffer with a huge glut of injuries/suspensions/benchings/teams knocked out, I wouldn’t have enough cover from the free transfers and I would need my chip. However, far too often the allotted transfers would prove enough and I wouldn’t need the chip at all, so I’d end up holding it in my pocket until late in the competition and using it just to get rid of it it in the semifinal round. In that case, it was basically wasted.</p>
<p id="fSVKrt">I have been playing <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a> for a long time, and Champions League fantasy for several years. And I’m pretty good at it! That said, even the best of us can’t be so full of pride as to keep stubbornly doing things the same way over and over again in instances where it’s foolish to do so. We can be old dogs who actually learn new tricks, can’t we?</p>
<p id="Azt5x1">It wasn’t until I read a wonderfully helpful <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/8/31/23329310/nma-how-to-succeed-at-fantasy-ucl-strategies-tips-tricks-from-world-1">guest column ahead of 2022-23 from the previous season’s world #1 DTuron</a> offering the simple, all-caps advice “USE ALL CHIPS IN THE GROUP STAGE” that I came to grips with that fact that I had been missing out on a huge chance at gaining points by holding on to my Wildcard chip too long. I was ready for change. I needed to prioritize going after as many points in the group stage as possible before the points tend to dry up in the knockout rounds. So this season, I decided to try to get off to a big start in MD-1 with my initial team, then use my Wildcard chip in MD-2 with a focus on the next four matchdays, before as usual playing my Limitless chip in MD-6.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TfijuXNVAYUD8YiGPrpQuZnwTjU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24716519/Screen_Shot_2023_06_10_at_10.19.05_AM.png">
<cite>Screen grab from official UEFA Champions League fantasy platform</cite>
<figcaption>Getting off to a good start always helps! In this case it was enabled by a change in chip strategy.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="kqTToL">Did it work? Yes, and no. Yes, in that I scored 99 points in MD-1, a strong start. No, in that somehow I only scored 61 points in MD-2, a horrible score following use of the chip. But overall yes, since it’s not just about MD-2; using the chip at that time was not only also about MD-1, but also about MD-3, MD-4 and MD-5 when I scored 80, 79 and 82 points, respectively, for pretty solid returns. Ultimately, I reckon that I can safely say I got a better return using the chip in the group stage than I would have gotten from holding onto it until the quarters or semis of the knockout round when I didn’t really need it. </p>
<p id="2caSEu">Will I keep this strategy again next season? Yes, absolutely, I have seen the light with respect to using both chips in the group stage, But depending on how the fixtures look, I will be open to using the Wildcard chip in either MD-2 or MD-3. </p>
<p id="920WqA">~</p>
<h3 id="hDIpzO">Prioritizing Cheap Defenders with Ball Hawking Skills</h3>
<p id="GCXti6">Unlike FPL, Champions League fantasy has awarded points for ball recoveries starting a few years ago. That levels the playing field toward, or even tilts it in the favor of, cheaper defenders who earn a lot of ball recoveries compared to costlier players at the position who offer attacking returns, enabling us to afford more expensive stars at other positions. DTuron pointed out this insightful gem as well in his preseason piece. </p>
<p id="lscoTN">However, I actually came around to this way of thinking before reading DTuron’s article, merely due to this season’s particular circumstances in that <a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com">Bayern Munich</a>’s Joshua Kimmich was moved from defender to midfielder in the game platform, while <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/">Liverpool</a>’s Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson were put in a very tricky group. As such, I saw an extreme dearth of attractive premium defenders compared to prior seasons. In MD-1, four of my defenders cost only 4.5m, and my fifth was 5.0m. Not only did that allow me to afford plenty of attacking stars in MD-1, but two of my cheap defenders actually scored quite well: <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com">Borussia Dortmund</a>’s Raphael Gueirrero (13 points) and Ajax’s Devyne Rensch (7 points). Now that I’ve come to appreciate the logic behind this approach, I will look to continue utilizing the strategy in the future as well. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="lM00Hc">
<h2 id="Yz6F6Z">WHAT I DID THE SAME THIS SEASON</h2>
<p id="R33rXv">I did adopt some new angles this season, but it was far from a departure from strategy for me. Change what doesn’t work, but keep what is effective, right?</p>
<p id="TTIWlk">~</p>
<h3 id="8qYEhU">Limitless Chip Strategy</h3>
<p id="hh4Yzz">For the past several campaigns, I have decided on a Limitless chip strategy and kept with it, because it seems the obvious choice and it usually tends to work out well. I would actually say that it is a way of playing it safe and playing it smart at the same time. </p>
<p id="wLTSOY">I use my Limitless chip in MD-6, when many teams, particularly the strongest sides, are guaranteed to go through or nearly secure in that respect, which means that a glut of stars — likely many in my fantasy team — will be in serious danger of being rested. On the other side of that coin, several teams have already been knocked out, and their coaches may also want to rest their studs in Champions League play to focus on domestic competition. So MD-6 is always a savvy time to do a makeover, loading up on strong performers from teams who still have something to play for, focusing on those who will be favored to win the final game of that round. </p>
<p id="ctplwh">In this case, I dropped a bevy of stars who I feared would be rested from the big teams — Robert Lewandowski, Neymar, Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, Piotr Zielinski, Jamal Musiala, Leon Goretzka, Sergio Ramos, Giovanni Dilorenzo, Andre Onana and others — while bringing in the generally less heralded likes of Rafa Silva, Mehdi Taremi, Christopher Nkunku, Joao Mario, Ivan Perisic, Alejandro Grimaldo, Thibaut Courtois et al., ending up with 107 points, my most prolific return of the group stage. Had I been limited to my allotment of two free transfers, I would have been stuck with loads of 0s and 1s.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qpBol1x9Vt-dSesOSpLnxpp6wx8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24716522/Screen_Shot_2023_06_10_at_10.23.07_AM.png">
<cite>Screen grab from official UEFA Champions League fantasy platform</cite>
<figcaption>The author’s usual strategy of using the Limitless chip in MD-6 paid off with his best result of the group stage.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="mfaTQE">~</p>
<h3 id="g0vLmz">Loading Up on Heavy Favorites</h3>
<p id="Z2NHmw">There are times when it makes sense to play it safe as mentioned above. But when it’s the right time to take off the restraints, then by all means go for the gusto! </p>
<p id="UuNhzO">I saw no shortage of advice columns recommending that we should play it safe for the final leg of the semifinals by going with at least two or even three players from each team in case the favorites didn’t make it through. Did I follow that advice? No, not at all! Why not? Because I rated <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a> and <a href="https://www.serpentsofmadonnina.com">Inter Milan</a> as heavy favorites not only to advance through to the final since they’d done well in the first semifinal leg away, but I also expected them to win the second leg at home. </p>
<p id="9me8aa">In different circumstances — if I had felt each game were more of a 50/50 or 60/40 chance — I would absolutely have played it safe. But when I rate two teams as heavy favorites along 75/25 or 80/20 lines, I go all in on those teams. I don’t want to miss out on their stars’ goals, assists and clean sheets. If the worst case scenario happens — in this case, I had estimated both Man City and Inter Milan being eliminated as having about a 2% chance of occurring — so be it. I’m not going to play it safe when there’s a 98% chance of it not happening!</p>
<p id="fcJiiP">It’s pretty simple, isn’t it? Particularly in the knockout rounds, go with the star players from the teams you think will win. That basic aggressive strategy is what got me my bonanza of points in the Round of 16. While my aggressive approach may not have paid off quite as handsomely in the quarterfinals (yes, surprises do happen, in this case Napoli being upset by AC Milan), I certainly wasn’t going to change my strategy and play it safe in the semifinals unless the circumstances dictated doing so, which they didn’t. </p>
<p id="TK5dTO">What did I do? I loaded up on the maximum six players each from Man City and Inter Milan, rounding it out with three from <a href="https://www.managingmadrid.com">Real Madrid</a> and none from <a href="https://acmilan.theoffside.com">AC Milan</a>. As it turned out, Man City and Inter Milan not only advanced, they won the second leg at home as expected. Again, yes upsets happen, but the favorites usually win. (Especially at home.) That’s why they’re the favorites! I would have suffered had I stuck myself with two or three players from AC Milan, as nearly all of them delivered a paltry return. The only mistake I made was actually not going all in on Man City with my starting line-up, leaving Man City defender Manuel Akanji on the bench, as he shockingly scored a goal, adding to his clean sheet and ending up with 13 points! </p>
<p id="DvyUyc">Again, ahead of the neutral site final, likewise I saw plenty of advice columns saying we should balance it out between Man City and Inter Milan, going with six players from one side and five from the other to play it safe. Would I do that? No, of course not! Inter Milan enjoyed a fantastic tournament run, but I saw Man City as the clear favorite. If Man City been against a heavyweight such as Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain or Real Madrid, I may have tried a more balanced approach. </p>
<p id="bNiTrJ">But I was not going to change my strategy — what had worked for me so far up to that point for the most part — and play it safe all of a sudden. I was going all in on Man City, which meant going for eight players from their side. Could that approach have bitten me in the butt? Of course! But if that were the case, so be it. I knew that I would definitely feel a lot better about myself if Inter beat Man City and I’d gone all in on Man City than I would have if Man City had won and I’d played it safe by balancing my team out between their sides. </p>
<p id="67vkP4">I went into the final ranked #81 worldwide, and I ended up at #80. I would have moved up more, but unfortunately I dropped defensive midfielder Rodri, instead prioritizing the additions of offensive-minded City midfielders Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva. Of course, I can’t really blame myself for not going with a player who had scored just one goal with no assists in 47 previous Champions League games. My tally was nothing special in the final matchday, but I would have done much worse had I gone with a balanced approach and stuck myself with two fewer City and two more Inter players in the starting line-up, especially if I’d lost one or two clean sheets from my defenders and/or keeper. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="Z8g7p3">
<h2 id="hT88Kf">HOW I GOT LUCKY THIS SEASON</h2>
<p id="EAUUOf">I am sure that there were plenty of instances where fortune smiled upon me this season, but there was one standout moment when Lady Luck came through in a big way. Spoiler alert: Erling Haaland scored five goals in one game! But it wasn’t just that per se. </p>
<p id="CsL5iT">The first part, yes, was having Erling Haaland in my team for the second leg of the Round of 16. While I think loads of managers had them in their fantasy teams, it also seemed that a fair chunk did not prioritize him, instead grabbing one or both among superstars Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe who I had avoided due to PSG’s tough match-up against Bayern Munich. As it turned out, fortune smiled on me and I made the right call. Messi and Mbappe were completely stifled, while Haaland exploded for a quintet of goals and 25 points!!!</p>
<p id="SOzKQv">Above that, though, the second part was captaining Haaland. Now that may seem like a no brainer in retrospect, but I definitely got lucky in doing so. On the first day of the second leg, my decision for the captain’s armband was between Benfica’s Alejandro Grimaldo and Joao Mario. I went with Grimaldo, who ended up with 5 points. If I’d gone with Mario who scored 11 points, I would absolutely have kept the armband on him. As it turned out, I was lucky to have made the wrong pick. Because on the second and final day, captaining Haaland earned me 14 more points than I would have gotten from making the right choice on the first day. It wasn’t until I got those 50 points from both having and captaining Haaland that I really shot up into the truly elite ranks around the top 100 worldwide. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/n4UJYbkUWYUSZnZ_y8EDZV6cZ8c=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24716494/UCL_fantasy_R16_2nd_leg_capture.png">
<cite>Screen grab from official UEFA Champions League Fantasy platform</cite>
<figcaption>The author’s extremely memorable Matchday 7 result.</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="feYwNn">
<h2 id="V4i9E0">MY SCORING BREAKDOWN THIS SEASON</h2>
<p id="Sgdm4r">It’s nice to look back at your scoring when you do well. No matter how you do, though, it’s always interesting to see how you performed across the different stages. </p>
<p id="6KjmT4">~</p>
<p id="CeAEL8"><strong>Matchday 1:</strong> 99 points</p>
<p id="EOMta9"><strong>MD-2: </strong>61 points (Wildcard chip played)</p>
<p id="5zgL6x"><strong>MD-3:</strong> 80 points</p>
<p id="sl0jiG"><strong>MD-4:</strong> 79 points</p>
<p id="tmY6h4"><strong>MD-5:</strong> 82 points</p>
<p id="uwPAcB"><strong>MD-6: </strong>107 points (Limitless chip played)</p>
<p id="J8XJuq"><em><strong>My Group Stage Average: 85 points</strong></em></p>
<p id="s3LK4E">~</p>
<p id="5cEOrH"><strong>MD-7 (Round of 16, First Leg):</strong> 106 points </p>
<p id="q8LfLh"><strong>MD-8 (Round of 16, Second Leg):</strong> 131 points</p>
<p id="5Gtlfp"><strong>MD-9 (Quarterfinal, First Leg):</strong> 66 points</p>
<p id="EN94RW"><strong>MD-10 (Quarterfinal, Second Leg):</strong> 62 points</p>
<p id="np1jl1"><strong>MD-11 (Semifinal, First Leg):</strong> 67 points</p>
<p id="bvvaxM"><strong>MD-12 (Semifinal, Second Leg):</strong> 69 points</p>
<p id="Hcimky"><strong>MD-13 (Final):</strong> 44 points</p>
<p id="M9Ze8H"><em><strong>My Knockout Stage Average: 78 points</strong></em></p>
<p id="KIzJHe">~</p>
<p id="WflSG1">As usual, points were more plentiful in the group stage compared to the knockout rounds, as my latter average was seven points lower than that for the former. However, the unusual part about this season was how late in the knockout round it took for the impact to be felt. Normally the points start to dry up once we hit the knockout stage when the 17th through 32nd teams depart and the match-ups get a lot tougher, but in this case the Round of 16 was an absolute bonanza, at least for me! Haaland was at the center of that outburst, scoring five goals in Man City’s second leg 7-0 victory over RB Leipzig, but the first leg exploits of Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr., with each scoring two goals and adding an assist, in Real Madrid’s 5-2 win over Liverpool also played a big part.</p>
<p id="pPqQiJ"><em><strong>My Round of 16 Average: 119 points</strong></em></p>
<p id="c2ih4W"><em><strong>My Quarterfinal Round Average: 64 points</strong></em></p>
<p id="vLpXE6"><em><strong>My Semifinal/Final Rounds Average: 60 points</strong></em></p>
<p id="kYVOeJ">The Round of 16 was an enormous outlier, as it definitely inflated my knockout stage average much higher than normal compared to my group stage average. In future seasons, I don’t expect to see this scenario repeat itself too often. As for this season, though, I’ll take it!</p>
<p id="Fx7ACC">I would personally like to thank the rest of the fabulous NMA Champions League team: CreweGuy, MiQ, PPQ, sraxan and V Dhivakhar, along with DTuron for his preseason guest column. I am certain that I could not have enjoyed anywhere near this unexpected level of success this season without them.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="r9arOQ">
<p id="iJFcgX"><em>How did your Champions League fantasy team do this past campaign? What were the most memorable (and forgettable) moments? Did you try anything new this time around? Are you planning any different approaches next season?</em></p>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/6/11/23754798/champions-league-fantasy-2022-23-how-did-you-do-uefa-season-results-strategy-lessons-best-approachChris Manfredi2023-04-10T09:57:34-07:002023-04-10T09:57:34-07:00Rate My Team: Champions League Fantasy Matchday 9
<figure>
<img alt="FBL-ENG-PR-MAN CITY-NOTTINGHAM FOREST" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l5eeUR37ICDLSHwI8GiudxovgNw=/0x0:3500x2333/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72165990/1242844768.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>The author’s only two Manchester City players accounted for 61 points together in Matchday 8, nearly half of the entire team’s total. | Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The players I picked performed brilliantly in the two Round of 16 legs. Can I keep my momentum going in the quarterfinals?</p> <p id="MF92nK">In my <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/2/12/23593687/champions-league-player-picks-round-of-16-first-leg-strategy-best-team-match-up-real-madrid-man-city">Matchday 7 Player Picks article</a>, I started off by mentioning the usual caveat that the Round of 16 is when points typically start to dry up. Boy howdy was I wrong... beautifully, beautifully wrong! My team delivered a very strong tally of 106 points in Matchday 7 and then absolutely exploded for a brilliantly joyful 131 points in Matchday 8. </p>
<p id="ZoJLyL">That savvy surge has left me with a total of 745 points, enabling a rise up to the current ranks of:</p>
<ul>
<li id="9dMUXx">#128 worldwide (out of more than 2 million managers)</li>
<li id="O4b0BW">#7 in the USA (31,000+ managers)</li>
<li id="NINyAF">#3 in the Never Manage Alone league (2,000+ managers)</li>
</ul>
<p id="wOCKAs">Fun fun fun!</p>
<p id="mL74eB">~</p>
<h3 id="qOhTdP">What Did I Get Right in Matchdays 7 and 8?</h3>
<p id="WnbWTR">Let’s start by looking at what I got right with my strategy ahead of the Round of 16. Not surprisingly, I got a whole lot correct!</p>
<ul>
<li id="NVp83u">
<strong>Benfica being a strong favorite over Brugge</strong>; Benfica ended up outscoring Brugge 7-1 on aggregate and my Benfica players generally had strong returns over the two legs: midfielder João Mário (19 points), defender Alejandro Grimaldo (12 pts), keeper Odysseas Vlachodimos (8 pts) and defender Alexander Bah (7 pts in the second leg only for me).</li>
<li id="E8a8Mj">
<a href="https://www.managingmadrid.com"><strong>Real Madrid</strong></a><strong> being a strong favorite over </strong><a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/"><strong>Liverpool</strong></a>; Real Madrid ended up outscoring Liverpool 6-2 on aggregate and my Real Madrid attackers delivered strong returns over the two legs: midfielder Vinicius Jr. (23 points) and forward Karim Benzema (22 points, or 35 including MD-7 captaincy).</li>
<li id="kTIXiT">
<strong>Napoli being a strong favorite over Eintracht Frankfurt</strong>; Napoli ended up outscoring Frankfurt 5-0 on aggregate and three of my Napoli players did well over the two legs: defender Giovanni Di Lorenzo (23 points), forward Victor Osimhen (21 points) and keeper Alex Meret (6 points in the second leg only for me).</li>
<li id="OIJ10M">
<a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com"><strong>Manchester City</strong></a><strong> being a strong favorite over RB Leipzig</strong>; Man City ended up outscoring Leipzig 8-1 on aggregate; my only Man City players did well over the two legs: forward Erling Haaland (27 points, or 52 including MD-8 captaincy) and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne (11 points, all coming in the second leg). </li>
<li id="4Y27JO">Not only did I do well picking the stars from the favorites, perhaps just as importantly I was rewarded by <strong>avoiding usual fantasy favorites from underdogs</strong> such as Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson and Alisson who performed disappointingly.</li>
<li id="7MznEt">
<a href="https://acmilan.theoffside.com"><strong>AC Milan</strong></a><strong> and </strong><a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com"><strong>Tottenham Hotspur</strong></a><strong> being fairly evenly matched</strong>; AC Milan ended up advancing by a very slim 1-0 margin on aggregate.</li>
<li id="o44DdV">
<a href="https://www.serpentsofmadonnina.com"><strong>Inter Milan</strong></a><strong> and Porto being fairly evenly matched</strong>; Inter Milan ended up advancing by a very tight 1-0 margin on aggregate. </li>
<li id="HvHZb0">
<strong>Paris Saint-Germain and </strong><a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com"><strong>Bayern Munich</strong></a><strong> being fairly evenly matched</strong>; Bayern Munich ended up advancing by a 3-0 aggregate, which I think flattered the actual Munich performance. (Accordingly, the xG aggregate from <a href="https://www.infogol.net/en/team/fc-bayern-m%C3%BCnchen/72">InfoGol</a> had Bayern Munich at 2.92 and PSG at 2.02 goals.) If you want to move this to the “What I got wrong” section, you would have a decent argument, but I’m going to say I got it right and leave it here!</li>
<li id="0Y4GJc">As such, being rewarded for <strong>avoiding usual fantasy favorites from evenly matched teams </strong>such as Tottenham (Harry Kane, Son Heung-min), PSG (Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Achraf Hakimi, Gianluigi Donnarumma) or Bayern Munich (Joshua Kimmich, Thomas Müller, Leroy Sané) who performed disappointingly. (I did pick one Bayern Munich player, Jamal Musiala, merely because I wanted to have at least one player on the first day of MD-7 and MD-8 in order to have the full option to take advantage of all four days of the captaincy in each leg.)</li>
<li id="v4Hs2s">
<strong>The captain’s armband</strong>; with up to four chances in each Round of 16 leg, it is theoretically easy to get the captaincy pick right, but it can also be tricky with the chance of settling too soon and missing out on a bigger score late. For instance, if I’d picked Mário as my second leg captain instead of Grimaldo, I would have stuck with Mário’s 11 points rather than switching from Grimaldo’s 5 and missed out on 14 extra points from Haaland. But getting 26 points from Benzema in the first leg (13 doubled) and a whopping 50 points from Haaland in the second leg (25 doubled) turned out extremely well; the only way I could have done better is if I had captained Vini Jr. in the first leg (17 points), but I’m certainly not going to complain about missing out on four points. </li>
<li id="O3LqVb">
<strong>Not spending heavily on goalkeepers</strong>; while going the budget route with Vlachodimos (both legs), André Onana (first leg) and Meret (second leg), I still earned three clean sheets from my four keeper appearances. </li>
</ul>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Athletic Club v Real Madrid CF - La Liga Santander" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6O8EWCXU4ckVUMGAx3afEC24rn8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24541445/1360440908.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Antonio Villalba/Real Madrid via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>The author’s two Real Madrid attackers combined for five goals, three assists and both POTM bonus awards in the most recent pair of matchdays.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="zwJtP6">~</p>
<h3 id="B6etwX">What Did I Get Wrong in Matchdays 7 and 8?</h3>
<p id="KYYhOx">I did not get too much wrong, or I would not have done nearly as well as I did. But things never fully turn out quite exactly as you suspect they will, so I did have a few blind spots:</p>
<ul>
<li id="ka0KE9">
<strong>Expecting </strong><a href="https://www.fearthewall.com"><strong>Borussia Dortmund</strong></a><strong> to be a strong favorite over Chelsea</strong>; this turned out to be the only real shocker among the eight match-ups for me, as Chelsea ended up advancing by an aggregate of 2-1. Luckily I only picked two Borussia Dortmund players (defenders Nico Schlotterbeck and Raphaël Guerreiro), and thankfully at least they delivered clean sheets in the first leg. </li>
<li id="RpTZEx">
<strong>Missing out on two clean sheets each from the Bayern Munich and AC Milan sets of defense/keepers</strong>. I certainly would have done better picking a Bayern Munich defender for my one player on that team rather than Musiala, but facing the usually prolific Paris Saint-Germain attack, I’m certainly not going to second guess myself for taking a pass on the Munich back line. Likewise, with AC Milan and Tottenham both being significantly poorer than usual on the defensive side this season, I can’t really beat myself up for avoiding the AC Milan back. However, fantasy managers who did choose to invest in those two defenses were very well rewarded. Inter Milan also delivered two clean sheets, but I didn’t completely miss out there, picking Onana for the first leg (because I wanted at least one keeper playing at home in each leg).</li>
<li id="1DquhG">
<strong>Normally dynamic Napoli attacking midfielder Kvicha Kvaratskhelia</strong> proved an unexpected weak spot in my line-up, earning only 7 points total between the two legs. He did have plenty of good scoring chances (including a penalty kick in MD-7), but unfortunately failed to convert any of them. </li>
<li id="B87vL9">
<strong>Zeroes from Kevin De Bruyne (DNP due to illness) and David Alaba (removed early due to injury)</strong> in the first leg; thankfully I was able to leave KDB on, and move Alaba to, my bench. I would have been better off going with Riyad Mahrez in the first leg, though that would have hurt me in the second leg when KDB started and played very well. Regarding Alaba, I would have been better served simply going with Bah in the first leg. But hey, there’s no need to nitpick too much, nobody can get everything right!</li>
</ul>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="YjExBd">
<h3 id="AZEJ2j">My Matchday 8 Team</h3>
<p id="diHIfK">This was my team from the second leg of the Round of 16 which delivered a mouth-watering 131 point return:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bd6QcrPWpHP9FEbQyzm9I_saMHY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24541235/Screen_Shot_2023_03_27_at_4.32.10_PM.png">
<cite>UEFA Champions League fantasy</cite>
<figcaption>The author’s Matchday 8 team.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="ghW69G">My strategy of picking players from favorites thankfully worked out well not only in scoring for the pair of Round of 16 fantasy legs, but also with respect to my positioning heading into the quarterfinals. There was only one surprise result (to me) out of the eight match-ups, leaving me with only two players I definitely need to discard from my team, the two Borussia Dortmund defenders who have been knocked out of the competition. Given five free transfers (and holding €2.9m in the bank), I have plenty of freedom with three extra moves on top of those two defenders when contemplating changes for MD-9. Fingers crossed, at the moment I do not have much in the way of injury concerns or suspensions to worry about; Victor Osimhen seems to be the only one, having missed out on Napoli’s past two league games with a thigh problem.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="wtethn">
<h2 id="W9mjQB">How Do the Quarterfinal Match-Ups Look?</h2>
<p id="8AYage">My strategy remains basically the same now ahead of the quarterfinal stage as it was going into the round of 16. Rather than merely picking the stand-out players from all eight teams, I think it is vital to whittle down the target area by focusing primarily on the top performers from the sides which I think should be favored to win their duels. Who should I keep, who should I drop and who should I look to add in with my transfers?</p>
<p id="bC8Zju">~</p>
<h3 id="plprUZ">Benfica v. Inter Milan</h3>
<p id="Lgencc">Benfica handily dispatched Brugge, whereas Inter Milan barely got by Porto. Benfica are comfortably in first place in Portugal’s Primeira Liga with a league best differential of +52 having both scored the most and conceded the fewest goals. Meanwhile, Inter Milan are in fifth place in Italy’s Serie A with the fourth best differential of +15 having scored the second-most but conceded the fifth-most goals. Portugal is only #7 in <a href="https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/country/#/yr/2023">UEFA country coefficient</a> (17.642) while Italy is #2 (12.166), but I don’t think that covers up the difference otherwise. </p>
<p id="GgwOSv"><strong>My expectation: </strong>Benfica should be the comfortable favorite. </p>
<p id="LH9eij"><strong>Where that leaves me:</strong> I feel pretty good about my four current Benfica players: Mário, Grimaldo, Bah and Vlachodimos. I could consider adding forward Gonçalo Ramos, who has scored 17 goals with 5 assists in league play this season, although he is not the primary penalty kick taker which dampens his appeal a bit. If there is an upgrade to be made at keeper, I would consider that. Bah came off late in the second leg due to injury, but is not currently listed by the platform as being a fitness concern.</p>
<p id="2oKfry">~</p>
<h3 id="LUSpgZ">Manchester City v. Bayern Munich</h3>
<p id="kP72Fu">Man City are in second place in the English Premier League (somewhat closely behind Arsenal) with a league-best differential of +48, having scored the most and conceded the second-fewest goals. Fairly similarly, Bayern Munich are in first place in the German Bundesliga (barely ahead of Borussia Dortmund) with a by far league-best differential of +48, having both scored the most goals and conceded the fewest. As for tumult, while Man City are currently embroiled in a sticky situation where the team has been charged by the EPL with serious financial crimes, Munich are in their own mess having recently sacked manager Julian Nagelsmann, hiring Thomas Tuchel as his replacement during the international break. </p>
<p id="42YkJc">While you could choose, if so inclined, to give Man City extra credit for dispatching Leipzig easily while Bayern Munich comparatively struggled to get by Paris Saint-Germain, PSG was a much more daunting test so that’s a wash for me. England ranks as the #1 country in UEFA coefficient (19.857) whereas Germany is #3 (16.375), which may turn the balance in favor of Man City, but only by the finest margin.</p>
<p id="h6wCKV"><strong>My expectation: </strong> This looks like a pretty even match-up. </p>
<p id="C6je5f"><strong>Where that leaves me: </strong> It’s tough to see myself adding any players from this tricky match-up, particularly defenders or keepers since clean sheets will likely be tough to come by. However, would wing defender João Cancelo be worth considering due to his appeal on the offensive end? Maybe, but maybe not, particularly if cost turns out to be a constraint. I feel fairly good about my current Man City (Haaland, KDB) and Munich (Musiala) attackers, but I possibly would consider dropping them in favor of someone with a more favorable match-up. Though could I really drop Haaland after his five-goal output in MD-8? No, probably not, Haaland is as undroppable as it comes regardless of competition. </p>
<p id="NylMWK">~</p>
<h3 id="8keS5a">Real Madrid v. Chelsea</h3>
<p id="zCJ6hn">Real Madrid find themselves in second place (well behind Barcelona) in Spain’s La Liga with a second-best differential of +35 having scored the most goals but conceded the third most. Meanwhile, Chelsea are shockingly way back at 11th place in the EPL with a differential of -2, having scored the 13th most goals but conceded the fourth fewest. Chelsea, of course, are going through a tumultuous time having just sacked manager Graham Potter and replaced him for the rest of the season with Frank Lampard, who has shown no real ability as an EPL manager thus far with Chelsea or <a href="https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com">Everton</a>. Spain is #4 in UEFA coefficient (14.428) compared to #1 for England (19.857) but I don’t think that covers up the difference in everything else. Ultimately, it’s hard to look past the simple fact that Real Madrid just easily dispatched Liverpool, which currently sit three spots ahead of Chelsea in the EPL table. </p>
<p id="kdKhm6"><strong>My expectation: </strong>Real Madrid should be the comfortable favorite. </p>
<p id="wAEWh0"><strong>Where that leaves me: </strong> I don’t see myself adding any players from Chelsea. It sure would be tough to drop either of my Real Madrid attackers (Benzema and Vini Jr) since they are operating on full cylinder, though I do fear the quality of the Chelsea defense. Then again, Real Madrid tore through a Liverpool back line which has conceded roughly the same number of goals as Chelsea this season in the EPL, but even so I can’t see adding any more players from the Real Madrid attack. However, given Chelsea’s extremely anemic attack, I will certainly entertain the idea of adding in Real Madrid keeper Thibaut Courtois and/or a Real Madrid defender; having been burned already by Alaba, I’d probably turn instead to center half Éder Militão who has scored four goals in La Liga play this season. As much as I normally loathe having expensive keepers, the later it gets in the competition, the more worthwhile that becomes as the top teams (and their pricey backstops) remain.</p>
<p id="HEZeqc">~</p>
<h3 id="BR08cv">AC Milan v. Napoli</h3>
<p id="g96Sz1">Both teams being from Serie A sure makes for a simple comparison. Napoli are the dominant first place team, boasting 74 points with a differential of +45 having scored the most and conceded the second-fewest goals. Meanwhile, fourth-place AC Milan have accumulated only 52 points with just a +12 differential, having scored the second most but conceded the 10th most scores. As for recent <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a> results, Napoli dominated Eintracht Frankfurt whereas AC Milan barely escaped a struggling Spurs side. However, one possibly huge caveat could come in the form of the AC Milan’s shocking 4-0 victory at Napoli the first weekend of April when Osimhen missed out with injury. (Napoli did win the September 2022 Serie A reverse fixture at AC Milan, 2-1.) </p>
<p id="v7pQW7"><strong>My expectation: </strong> The recent shock result between the two teams has to give a bit of pause, but even so Napoli should be the comfortable favorite. </p>
<p id="fQvhXU"><strong>Where that leaves me: </strong> I can’t see myself adding any AC Milan players. With Napoli on the road in the first leg, perhaps assets from the other pair of big favorites (Benfica and Real Madrid) become more attractive. but even so it would not be easy to part with any of my three Napoli star field players (Osimhen, Kvaratshkelia and Di Lorenzo) unless Osimhen’s injury makes his drop a simple decision. I will also consider adding midfielder Piotr Zieliński who suddenly seems to be on penalty kick duty and also has accumulated 3 goals with 8 assists in Serie A games this campaign; to make room for Zielinski, would I drop Musiala or KDB both of whom face tough match-ups against each other? If I want to add Courtois at keeper, I would have to drop Meret since those two play on the same day, so that’s a decision I’ll need to make. If I dropped Meret, I could cover in a sense by adding a Napoli defender such as center half Kim Min-jae who has two goals and assists each in domestic league play this season; as much as I’d love to go with left back Mário Rui who boasts seven assists, it seems too unclear whether Rui or Mathías Olivera will start. With Napoli playing on the second day, I can’t afford to take a risk when there is so much doubt.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="WnerAq">
<h3 id="JrqBpc">My First Draft Team for Matchday 9</h3>
<p id="K2fyJg">These are the five free transfers I am currently planning on making from my Matchday 8 team (leaving €0.5m in the bank):</p>
<ul>
<li id="DK8U5x">
<strong>DEFENDER:</strong> Borussia Dortmund’s Schlotterbeck out, Real Madrid’s Militao in.</li>
<li id="l7pOmW">
<strong>DEFENDER:</strong> Borussia Dortmund’s Gueirrero out, Napoli’s Kim Min-jae in.</li>
<li id="k2Witm">
<strong>KEEPER: </strong>Napoli’s Meret out, Real Madrid’s Courtois in.</li>
<li id="97EhmZ">
<strong>MIDFIELDER:</strong> Bayern Munich’s Musiala out, Napoli’s Zielinski in. I’m choosing between Musiala and KDB to drop; Musiala has a tough match-up at Man City, while KDB is at home in the first leg, so that’s the tie-breaker. </li>
<li id="swJUDi">
<strong>FORWARD: </strong> Napoli’s Osimhen out, Benfica’s Ramos in. I don’t have to make a fifth move by any means. We’ll see what happens. Maybe someone unexpectedly won’t (or will) start on the first day, and/or perhaps I will be feeling uncertainty on the second day with someone in my team. Basically, I think there are four very strong forward choices — Benzema, Haaland, Osimhen and Ramos — and I have to pick three of them, which means painfully leaving one out. It seems awfully tough to pass on Ramos if he starts as expected on the first day at home against Inter Milan. Assuming that Haaland also starts as expected on the first day, could I bring myself to drop Benzema or Osimhen in favor of Ramos? Neither Osimhen nor Ramos are the likely #1 penalty taker for their teams, so there is no advantage between those two in that respect. But likely #1 penalty taker Benzema starts at home in the first leg while Osimhen starts away. So unless a more pressing change emerges, I will plan on dropping Osimhen for Ramos with my final fifth transfer. (Again, Osimhen’s injury status may make this a simple decision.) And unless a rash of injuries or suspensions occurs in my team during or shortly following the first leg, I can always change back to Osimhen for the second leg if so desired when Napoli will be at home with one of my three free transfers at that point.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GIkjRepcmRTA1PiujwI-pdxKKZw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24541306/Screen_Shot_2023_03_27_at_5.08.57_PM.png">
<cite>UEFA Champions League fantasy</cite>
<figcaption>The author’s provisional Matchday 9 team.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="fB3SXd"><strong>Breakdown By Team: </strong> Benfica (5), Napoli (4), Real Madrid (4), Man City (2)</p>
<p id="uv9BaY"><strong>By Day: </strong> Tuesday (7), Wednesday (8)</p>
<p id="wYx57g"><strong>By Locale:</strong> Home (11), Away (4) </p>
<p id="OK6AMO"><strong>Presumable Primary Penalty Takers: </strong> Benzema, Haaland, Zielinski, Mario (4)</p>
<p id="1leCeB"><strong>Likely Captains:</strong> Haaland, Ramos or Mário (Tuesday), Benzema or Vini Jr. (Wednesday)</p>
<p id="4BzZHf">~</p>
<p id="ZlX3V9">(<strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong>Unless otherwise noted, statistical information used in this article came via <a href="http://UEFA.com">UEFA.com</a>, <a href="https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uclfantasy/my-team">official UEFA Fantasy Football</a>, <a href="https://www.espn.com/soccer/">ESPN soccer</a> and <a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/">transfermarkt</a>.)</p>
<p id="bSh4Ic">~</p>
<div id="t4lTlU"><div data-anthem-component="poll:11828252"></div></div>
<p id="xkTRGG">~</p>
<p id="2qWZVA"><em>What do you think of my team? Am I primed for a strong Matchday 9, or are there different players I should target with my transfers? Is the strategy of overloading my team with 13 star performers from the three teams I view as the biggest favorites the right way to go, or is that too risky for your taste? Be sure to share your thoughts and any questions you have in the comments!</em></p>
<p id="h7l3kE"></p>
<p id="5XlJNi"></p>
<p id="rn8Kl8"></p>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/4/10/23658958/rate-my-team-champions-league-fantasy-matchday-9-quarterfinal-round-strategy-best-playersChris Manfredi2023-02-12T09:00:00-08:002023-02-12T09:00:00-08:00Champions League Player Picks: Round of 16, First Leg
<figure>
<img alt="Real Madrid v Al Hilal: Final - FIFA Club World Cup Morocco 2022" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hnsD9W8JoC_to-ORrSol-dC2kso=/0x0:5316x3544/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71968218/1465124981.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Vinicius Junior and Karim Benzema of defending champion Real Madrid will look to pick apart a shaky Liverpool. | Photo by Alex Grimm - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>After a long layoff, it’s time to get back in the swing of things! These are the teams — and players — that should be at the top of your fantasy list.</p> <p id="jidTrx">In <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a> fantasy, the Round of 16 is typically when points really start to dry up, as easy fixtures against teams 17 through 32 have gone out of the picture. In my mind, it is imperative more than ever to focus on match-ups in an effort to eke out what returns that you can. </p>
<p id="Vw1Y7q">The strategy should be fairly simple. Aside from fairly rare ties which end in a penalty kick shootout, the teams which advance will score more and concede fewer goals, making their offensive and defensive players more attractive on balance. Technically this is a Player Picks piece for the first leg of the Round of 16, but I’m more focused on both legs. There is always so much injury/suspension/starting status uncertainty, but we only get three free transfers for the second leg, not enough to afford the luxury of purely plotting solely for the first leg. Additionally, we only get five free transfers for the quarterfinal round, not enough to allow us to waste too many picks on stars featuring for underdogs. Yes there will be upsets, but the favored teams obviously have the best chance of doing well and advancing. Hey, it’s not rocket science!</p>
<p id="5exdC5">So which teams look likely to pass through, and which players should we target from those squads? I will go ahead and break it down with a chart providing a basic statistical overview for each match-up in order to see what expected result we may glean. Taking into account Champions League form from earlier this season is by no means irrelevant, but I think it is more important to focus on each side’s domestic results both over the full season so far along with form since the post-World Cup return, given the much wider sample size of games therein, while also taking into consideration the relative strength of their domestic league within Europe. After all, there have been only six Champions League fixtures played by each team, and none in the past three and a half months due to the unusual timing of the 2022 international tournament in Qatar. </p>
<p id="wVyXRp">For our complete portfolio of fantasy content for Leg 1 of the Round of 16, see our article stream <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/2/12/23595321/ucl-round-of-16-first-leg-live-chat-stream-liverpool-milan-bayern-psg-napoli-benfica-man-city-bvb"><strong>here</strong></a>. We will continue to add to it as MD-7 unfolds, so be sure to check in frequently.</p>
<p id="C4am96">~</p>
<p id="i6Frii"><em><strong>NOTES:</strong></em><em> </em></p>
<ul>
<li id="dAurNe"><em>The following charts and analysis include games through Saturday, February 11. </em></li>
<li id="y0PI1Y">
<em>The </em><a href="https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/country/#/yr/2023"><em>“Country Coefficient” is a UEFA calculation</em></a><em> based on each nation’s performance in Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League play so far this season.</em>
</li>
</ul>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="ugfDGr">
<h3 id="S90ARR">Paris Saint-Germain v. <a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com">Bayern Munich</a>
</h3>
<p id="mUydvQ">I think it’s no surprise when comparing Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, it ends up being pretty close. In league play this season, both teams lead their respective domestic leagues. Bayern Munich have scored more goals, while PSG have conceded fewer. Bayern Munich would probably slightly win the argument with a better differential in a tougher league. </p>
<p id="pCSZaO">Since the restart, both teams have cooled off significantly. Bayern Munich seem to have gotten their mojo back with two straight wins by a combined score of 7-2 while PSG have wins in two of the past three. For PSG a big part of the problem has been injuries to key stars. Again, fairly even, but slight edge to Munich.</p>
<div id="2XrRmA"><div data-anthem-component="table:11762696"></div></div>
<p id="a1Sn6z">Looking at history in recent years, Bayern Munich come out somewhat significantly ahead. The German giants have advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals or better in five of the past six seasons, compared to only twice for the French standard bearers since 2016-17. Perhaps that can be blamed on the fact that PSG do not face the level of competition week in and week out in France that Bayern Munich do in Germany as reflected by the gap in the country coefficients. </p>
<p id="064Svd">So overall I think we can favor Bayern Munich, but only just slightly as this is still a battle of titans. Given such a tough, fairly balanced match-up, it’s probably best to avoid players from this one. Bayern do tend to score goals, but the problem in the post-Robert Lewandowski era is that they spread them around and their players are expensive; do you really want to risk paying heavily and missing out on the fun? For PSG a huge downside is that fantasy favorites Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi and Achraf Hakimi all remain injury doubts for at the moment; either or all could feature, but what if your pick(s) end up merely coming on from the bench late in the game? We may want to add one (or more) of them for the second leg, making it all the more important to get our first leg picks right. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="BIi0bu">
<h3 id="vE48Ud">
<a href="https://acmilan.theoffside.com">AC Milan</a> v. <a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com">Tottenham Hotspur</a>
</h3>
<p id="sGOYM3">Again this looks like a fairly balanced match-up, but this time further down the pecking order with both teams outside their domestic leagues’ top two spots. AC Milan have a better rank, but the EPL is considered tougher than Serie A. Neither team has been prolific in terms of goal differential, particularly on the defensive side. </p>
<div id="xrnCRL"><div data-anthem-component="table:11761145"></div></div>
<p id="lmXsfg">Since the World Cup break, both teams have struggled. Tottenham had hoped to have righted the ship with successive 1-0 victories against Fulham and <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a>, but Saturday’s 4-1 loss at <a href="https://fosseposse.sbnation.com">Leicester City</a> has taken the wind out of those sails. Meanwhile, AC Milan will hope to have gotten back to the good with a 1-0 win over Torino, but that followed three straight losses by a combined score of 10-2. </p>
<p id="jhMTWi">So this pretty much seems like another toss-up. However, given both teams’ defensive frailties, it could make sense to dip our toes into this pool and grab an attacking player. As much as this goes against my general philosophy of picking favorites, with Messi and Mbappe being injury doubts (along with several other stars in the field of 16) it may be necessary to take more of a risk at one of the forward spots. </p>
<p id="XW6bZT">Let’s start with Tottenham <strong>forward Harry Kane (€10.5m)</strong>, who unfairly seems to be the Premier League’s forgotten man this season thanks to the otherworldly exploits of Man City newcomer Erling Haaland. Even so, Kane is on pace to have one of his best EPL campaigns ever, scoring 17 goals in 23 games so far. For AC Milan their most potent attacker is <strong>forward Rafael Leão (€8.5m)</strong> who has racked up 8 goals and 6 assists in 21 Serie A appearances, although fellow <strong>forward Olivier Giroud (€8.0m)</strong> is another option having scored 7 times with 4 helpers in 20 games. With the first leg being at San Siro, going with AC Milan attack could prove prudent. </p>
<p id="PbUFeo">Both teams will feature cheap deputy goalkeepers since their #1 choices are currently injured, but I don’t recommend going that route. Straight off the bat, the chances for a clean sheet are slight since both defenses are shaky as mentioned. But more importantly, do you really want to have to use one of your limited free transfers on a keeper either for the second leg (as is likely with Milan) or the next round (as is likely for Spurs)? I certainly don’t. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="KeLypA">
<h3 id="xHQPls">Club Brugge v. Benfica</h3>
<p id="DdAzKC">Benfica are #1 in Liga Portugal, which is rated as a tougher league than the Belgian Pro League where Club Brugge rank only fourth. Benfica’s form has not been as strong since the restart as it was at the beginning of the season, but it has been far worse for Brugge which have struggled mightily since the restart, with but a single win in the past seven tries in domestic play and a negative differential in that time. </p>
<div id="lW7VEG"><div data-anthem-component="table:11761249"></div></div>
<p id="0CvZh6">A-ha, finally we have a true mismatch! How many Benfica players are we allowed to grab? The answer is five. The maximum may be a bit too much of an investment, but I’m thinking we should look into adding three or four Benfica players.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="SL Benfica v Casa Pia AC - Liga Portugal Bwin" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rUks4u5tiIBELCxS7mRdO9EJGPk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24426645/1246797745.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Gualter Fatia/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Joao Mario and Benfica are really on a roll right now.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="TOM8W5">Forward Gonçalo Ramos<strong> </strong>and<strong> midfielder Joao Mario (€6.1m)</strong> are the driving forces in the Benfica attack, each boasting 12 goals and 4 assists in domestic play so far this season. Unfortunately Ramos is an injury doubt, so he seems to be too risky right now. At the other end of the pitch, both wing backs offer attacking appeal as well in the forms of <strong>left back Alejandro Grimaldo (€5.3m) </strong>who has 2 goals and 6 assists along with <strong>right back</strong> <strong>Alexander Bah (€4.5m) </strong>who has 1 goal plus 4 assists; of the pair, Grimaldo has been more reliable in terms of racking up ball recoveries in Champions League play. <strong>Keeper Odysseus Vlachodimos (€5.0m)</strong> is also attractive as a cut-rate option compared to the pricier net minders from bigger teams.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="qunsm9">
<h3 id="TNOLCA">
<a href="https://www.fearthewall.com">Borussia Dortmund</a> v. Chelsea</h3>
<p id="lHwm3z">Borussia Dortmund are about where we would expect them, 3rd place in the Bundesliga. Chelsea, meanwhile, have completely shuttered projections, slipping all the way down to 9th place at current. And the Blues have failed to get any momentum going since the World Cup break, outscoring their EPL opposition only 7-5 in aggregate with lackluster draws against <a href="https://bracethehammer.sbnation.com/">West Ham</a>, Fulham and Nottingham forest along with a loss at Fulham in that time. Dortmund, on other hand, have actually improved their form with a perfect record of five wins in as many tries since the restart by a combined score of 15-5. </p>
<div id="HXpSPP"><div data-anthem-component="table:11761118"></div></div>
<p id="SDZOSf">Again, I think we have a fairly clear mismatch in favor of Borussia Dortmund, so let’s consider adding some of their players. An awful lot of their offense actually comes from their defense, so I will start there with <strong>center back</strong> <strong>Nico Schlotterbeck (€5.1m)</strong> who has three goals and five assists in 20 Bundesliga tilts. Another good option is <strong>left back Raphaël</strong> <strong>Guerreiro (€4.7m)</strong> who has scored once with six helpers in 17 appearances, but Schlotterbeck has been more proficient at notching ball recoveries in Champions League play.</p>
<p id="QPg4hZ">The Dortmund forward line is fairly anonymous following the departure of Haaland, so otherwise you will also want to consider <strong>attacking midfielder Julian Brandt (€7.2m)</strong> who boasts six goals and four assists in 20 games along with fellow <strong>midfielder</strong> <strong>Jude Bellingham (€7.5m) </strong>who has four goals and assists apiece in 19 appearances. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="VpEVNQ">
<h3 id="CHXiaB">
<a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/">Liverpool</a> v. <a href="https://www.managingmadrid.com">Real Madrid</a>
</h3>
<p id="PItpk5">Along the same lines as Dortmund/Chelsea, the Liverpool/Real Madrid match-up features a shockingly underperforming EPL side against a team which is doing about what we would expect, this time in the form of Champions League trophy holders Real Madrid who are in second place in La Liga behind only Barcelona. </p>
<p id="eRD6xr">And while Real Madrid’s form has dipped since the World Cup with only three wins in the six games, Liverpool have been absolutely atrocious in recent times with one draw and three losses in the past four games, being outscored 10-1 in league play for the calendar year so far.</p>
<div id="EnW1ix"><div data-anthem-component="table:11761972"></div></div>
<p id="huC82i">So with another seeming mismatch on our hands, let’s highlight Real Madrid assets. Superstar <strong>striker Karim Benzema (€10.7m)</strong> has had injury issues this season, but he seems to be fit now, and with 9 goals and 3 assists in 20 league games this season, he should be the first name on the list. We must also strongly consider <strong>left wing midfielder Vinicius Junior (€10.0m)</strong> who boasts 7 scores plus 3 helpers in 20 appearances along with <strong>right winger Rodrygo (€8.0m) </strong>who has four goals and five assists in 18 games, plus there is also much more affordable <strong>central midfielder</strong> <strong>Federico Valverde (€6.6m)</strong> who has 6 goals and 2 assists in 20 games. Given the range of options here, when assembling your team, it may be a good idea to wait on midfield and see how much you have left in your budget to determine who you add from Real Madrid. </p>
<p id="6I4Gnm"><strong>Defender David Alaba (€5.9m) </strong>has a goal and three assists in 17 games and offers the best route into the Real Madrid back line players not currently flagged with fitness issues. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="EKGN79">
<h3 id="OZ6Ksl">Eintracht Frankfurt v. Napoli</h3>
<p id="BrxVo1">While the Bundesliga is ranked as a tougher league than Serie A, the fact remains that we’ve got the #1 team in Serie A pitted against the #6 team in the Bundlesliga. The numbers bear it out, as Napoli boast a differential of 1.71 goals per game compared to only 0.74 for Eintracht Frankfurt over the entire season. Both teams have played well since the restart, but Napoli have been even better, winning their past five league games by a combined score of 14-2. </p>
<div id="gBjgL2"><div data-anthem-component="table:11762148"></div></div>
<p id="Kyp9WQ">So I think we can feel pretty comfortable about investing in high-flying Napoli. Most of the offense comes from <strong>forward Victor Osimhen (€7.9m)</strong> who has scored 16 goals with 4 assists in 17 league games, along with <strong>left wing midfielder Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (€5.9m) </strong>who has 8 goals and 11 assists in 17 games. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="SSC Napoli v Juventus - Serie A" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4d6CoVlPIN8fMssJFIjwXWbzy9Y=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24426615/1246208130.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Giuseppe Bellini/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>You will not probably want to miss out on the Napoli dyamic duo up front.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="ARiaRx">But the defenders also pitch in, as <strong>right back Giovanni Di Lorenzo (€5.1m)</strong> has a goal plus three assists in 21 games of league play, while <strong>left back Mário Rui (€5.0m)</strong> has six assists in 21 appearances. The tie breaker should go to Di Lorenzo who has been much better than Rui in the ball recovery department in Champions League play. You may not know it but I’m really not a fan of paying too much at goalie when I don’t have to, so <strong>keeper Alex Meret (€5.0m)</strong> offers a cut rate option for a solid starter at the position.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="l6P3EK">
<h3 id="72i8v9">RB Leipzig v. Manchester City</h3>
<p id="x7cTkV">This is a match-up most of us probably circled in significant favor of Manchester City when the Round of 16 draw was first announced. However, things have changed a bit since then, with the Citizens cooling off a bit since the World Cup break. Even so, losses to <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Manchester United</a> and Tottenham are tough to make too much of a fuss over given that they are both top five EPL teams and each game was away from the Etihad. </p>
<div id="2yfCZF"><div data-anthem-component="table:11762184"></div></div>
<p id="EHEDFB">What should be in question regards the Manchester City players’ mindset following the Premier League recently lodging a staggering litany of financial impropriety charges against the team. If you feel the team can overcome the surrounding existential ennui, then go ahead and invest in their players. If instead you are wary of the situation, then it will be more prudent to invest lightly or look entirely elsewhere for your fantasy assembly.</p>
<p id="W9plOh">I don’t think most managers will have too much hesitation grabbing <strong>forward Erling Haaland (€11.1m) </strong>given his dazzling performance from the get-go with City, boasting a whopping tally of 25 goals and 3 assists in only 20 EPL games. <strong>Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne (€10.5m) </strong>has been prolific as a provider with 3 goals and 12 assists in 21 appearances. </p>
<p id="9zCbsF">On the back end, <strong>versatile defender Nathan Ake (€4.4m) </strong>seems to have won a consistent starting spot since the restart and provides a very affordable route into the City back line, although he does not offer anything in the way of attacking potential. Of course, with João Cancelo gone on loan to Bayern Munich, you won’t really be looking for much if any offense from the City defense. But Ake has done well with ball recoveries in Champions League, nabbing 15 of those in only 182’.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="mGNIZK">
<h3 id="IusT0d">
<a href="https://www.serpentsofmadonnina.com">Inter Milan</a> v. Porto</h3>
<p id="YogeeD">After a fair number of unbalanced match-ups, now we go back to a fairly even one. Both teams are ranked second in their leagues. Inter Milan gets the advantage since Serie A is ranked as a tougher one than the Portuguese Primeira Liga, but Porto gets the advantage since they’ve got a better differential over the season on a whole and since the restart. </p>
<div id="2e4vxS"><div data-anthem-component="table:11762221"></div></div>
<p id="jXh51p">So in the end, maybe this match-up is better to avoid unless you have a need for a cheap defender. Inter Milan <strong>left back Federico Dimarco (€4.6m) </strong>has three goals and two assists in 21 league games, plus he has 19 balls recovered in only 239’ of Champions League play this season. Meanwhile, Porto <strong>right back</strong> <strong>Joao Mario (€4.3m) </strong>has a goal plus four helpers in 13 league appearances. Finally, who could blame any fantasy manager for going with affordable Porto <strong>keeper Diogo Costa (€5.2m)</strong> who has amazingly already saved three penalties in Champions League play?</p>
<p id="98GqOd">~</p>
<p id="vNtuox">Right now after the group stage, I have 508 points in Champions League fantasy, good for #40 in the NMA league (out of 2K+), #51 in the USA (out of 28K+) and #2,607 overall in the world (out of 1.75M+). Here’s hoping my picks pay off!</p>
<p id="tGUzcg">~</p>
<p id="RyvKus">(<strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong>Statistical/pricing/fixture result information used in this article came via <a href="http://UEFA.com">UEFA.com</a>, <a href="https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uclfantasy/my-team">official UEFA Fantasy Football</a>, <a href="https://www.espn.com/soccer/">ESPN football</a> and <a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/">transfermarkt</a>.)</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="ib6Tjt">
<p id="1jaYBc">We’re looking for additional help with our fantasy UCL coverage. If you’d like to join our blog staff, see <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/2/3/23585092/help-wanted-champions-league-author">this article</a> for more details.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="rI7oh6">
<p id="NC4U5o"><em>What teams are you loading up on and which players are must-haves for you in your fantasy side? Are there any teams you expect to fare better than I do, and any players you expect to shine who I neglected to highlight? Share your thoughts and feel free to ask any questions in the comments section below.</em></p>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/2/12/23593687/champions-league-player-picks-round-of-16-first-leg-strategy-best-team-match-up-real-madrid-man-cityChris Manfredi2023-01-31T04:32:00-08:002023-01-31T04:32:00-08:00FPL Overall Cup Competition: Stayin’ Alive
<figure>
<img alt="“Stayin’ Alive: A GRAMMY Salute To The Music Of The Bee Gees” - Show" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FHb7BOOCwCwdktVTC-qigZu2SYY=/0x0:4604x3069/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71924642/669214744.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>To everybody still going in the FPL Cup, John Travolta and Barry Gibb are extremely relevant. | Photo by Kevin Mazur/WireImage</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The massive tournament enters the 7th round and I am still kicking around. Can my luck keep on going?</p> <p id="etSWxz">I have enjoyed plenty of outstanding seasons in <a href="https://dknation.draftkings.com/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a>, finishing as high as #53 globally in Yahoo (in 2013/14) and #2,382 worldwide in FPL (2019/20). I am used to faring very well, or at worst pretty well. This 2022/23 campaign, however, has been an absolute dumpster fire, by far my worst ever. </p>
<p id="0M9oWh">Why? Because <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/21/23174018/nma-erling-haaland-probably-bust-2022-23-fpl-fantrax-epl-mancity-transfer-fantasy-flop-dud">I unfortunately advised avoiding Erling Haaland before the opener</a> and stubbornly refused to add him to my own team until GW8. That means that I missed out on his first 11 goals plus an assist... and along with it the ability to double any of those 81 obscene points with the captain’s armband. (In that time, my captain returned only a base of 26 points, which means that instead of a possible 162 points, I earned only 52, thus losing out on 110 points if I had Haaland in my team and given him the armband from the start.)</p>
<p id="7obl73">Even so, despite my horrific struggle this season, somehow I have advanced the furthest I ever have gotten in the FPL Overall Cup. How is that possible? Well, in head-to-head tournament play, there is just about as much luck involved as skill. Upsets are extremely common. If you have an unexpectedly horrible week, you’re out, that’s it. Or if you come out with an amazing score, the luck of the draw could leave you paired up against a manager who somehow tallies an even bigger total out of nowhere. Even if you do manage to avoid a shock defeat in the first few rounds, the longer you stay alive, the tougher the competition gets. You’re either facing a plucky underdog in a fine run of form, or one of the truly elite managers who has been consistently brilliant all season. </p>
<p id="ccayOx">It’s kind of like tossing a coin repeatedly. You need it to keep coming up heads over and over again, and that may work three or four or even five times in a row, but eventually it’s going to land tails. I recall one particularly painful match-up a few years back when I’d advanced to the fourth or fifth round, only to end up on the losing end by a single point due to an unfortunately well-deserved yellow card earned by a petulant Jack Grealish in the final minute of added time. </p>
<p id="P0rTBD">Let’s hit the rewind button and look at my results so far in this season’s FPL Cup, where as of now I’m still... Ah Ah Ah Ah Stayin’ Alive, Stayin’ Alive.</p>
<div id="rUy0wi"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YxvBPH4sArQ?rel=0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share;"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="ki4gVy">~</p>
<h3 id="qnJRh5">First Match: GW16 (Round of 8,388,608)</h3>
<p id="HOLWyR">It may have felt like practically everybody got in the tournament at the start, but with 11+ million teams in FPL, nearly three million managers were actually left out of the party. My odyssey started against a team, IFK Östersund, ranked just inside the top 5 million which makes it seem like I should have cruised easily to victory. But my team at that point was ranked outside the top 3.5 million, so in other words, in terms of actual rank, it was actually a fairly even match-up.</p>
<p id="idkaWB">The global average was 43 points, which I merely equaled. My mistakes were painfully obvious as I left <a href="https://fosseposse.sbnation.com">Leicester</a> keeper Danny Ward (11 points) and <a href="https://cominghomenewcastle.sbnation.com">Newcastle</a> defender Fabian Schär (7 points) on the bench. If my opponent had merely been better than average, I would have been knocked out at the beginning of the competition. I needed to pluck a four leaf clover... and as it turned out, I did! Fortunately for me, the other side’s tally was below par and I came away with a 43-27 victory. </p>
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<p id="amrFEB">~</p>
<h3 id="xW5j3M">Second Match: GW17 (Round of 4,194,304)</h3>
<p id="CDAkOM">Following my ho-hum GW16 performance, my overall rank actually dropped to outside the top 3.6M globally. My opponent, kereta iblis, ranked just outside the top 4.4M, leaving another fairly even match-up. </p>
<p id="SFRAnR">What made things very interesting was that every manager was essentially given an free extra Wildcard chip for use during the World Cup break by FPL. I freed up a lot of money by dropping Newcastle’s Nick Pope for the cheaper Kepa Arrizabalaga of Chelsea, the Magpies’ Fabian Schär for teammate Sven Botman, <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a>’s Phil Foden for <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Manchester United</a>’s Christian Eriksen and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka for Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón, which allowed me to upgrade from Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrović to <a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com">Tottenham</a>’s Harry Kane and from Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke to Arsenal’s Eddie Nketiah at forward, plus from Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi to Arsenal’s Ben White in defense. Otherwise, I swapped out cheap bench defender Neco Williams of Nottingham Forest for more reliable starter Hugo Bueno of Wolves at around the same price point. </p>
<p id="CBc8eB">As it turned out, my makeover proved immediately impactful. Nine of my 11 starters returned 5+ points with three of those cracking double digits including my (and pretty much everybody’s) captain, Haaland. So while my opponent delivered an above average tally, I was still able to come away with a tidy 96-78 victory. </p>
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<p id="yWpFLg">~</p>
<h3 id="WYcVU0">Third Match: GW18 (Round of 2,097,152)</h3>
<p id="894BYb">After nearly hitting the century mark in points, I moved up inside the top 3M worldwide. However, now I would actually face a higher-ranked team, with my opponent, Of Rice and Men, just outside the top 1.5M. Could I win as an underdog for the first time? </p>
<p id="6cSKhO">Well, I fell way down from GW17, but so did just about everybody else as the global average plummeted to only 48 points. Common players Kieran Trippier and Sven Botman canceled each other out, as did my Arsenal defender Ben White to my opponent’s William Saliba. Strong returns from Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli (10 points) and Eddie Nketiah (8 pts) along with Fulham’s Andreas Pereira (5 pts) allowed me to eke out a 60-55 win as my opponent instead featured the Gunners’ Bukayo Saka (6 pts) along with <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Manchester United</a> stars Bruno Fernandes (6 pts) and Marcus Rashford (5 pts). My first upset triumph!</p>
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<p id="0JRB7X">~</p>
<h3 id="fXaCj6">Fourth Match: GW19 (Round of 1,048,576)</h3>
<p id="FxZ7Is">Moving up to within the top 2.7M, I returned to facing a near-even opponent, s.lamaofficial13 fc, who was just inside the top 3.0M. I had two free transfers, and I really wanted to add Marcus Rashford who was in a purple patch of form and enjoyed a home fixture against struggling Bournemouth. I jettisoned Christian Eriksen in midfield to create space, but in order to afford Rashford, I needed to free up funds elsewhere. Should I... could I... drop João Cancelo, who had barely featured in the past two games following the World Cup? It sure seemed like he was becoming yet another dead weight pricey attacking defender along the lines of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson and Reese James, but it was still difficult to pull the trigger. Would I regret that decision? </p>
<p id="JkzHEc">Heck no! I solidly outperformed the global average of 49 points and came away with a 78-43 victory thanks to the exploits of my two Manchester United transfers, Cancelo replacement Luke Shaw (15 points) along with captain Rashford (8 pts doubled to 16). Interestingly, both my opponent and I captained someone other than Haaland given his tough match-up at Chelsea, but thankfully Rashford worked out better than my opponent’s pick of Mo Salah who finished with 2 points doubled to 4. </p>
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<p id="AGLLMo">~</p>
<h3 id="Ka4sI9">Fifth Match: GW20 (Round of 524,288)</h3>
<p id="VrowXH">While my rank jumped into the top 2M, I went back to facing a superior team, Anfield Roar who was inside the top 500K. Could I pull off the upset? I wasn’t so sure. What made my prospects even more daunting was that my opponent played a chip while I did not. Even though I had Haaland captained, I actually needed to hope for him not to do too well in the DGW for Man City since my opponent used the Triple Captain chip on the Sky Blue striker. </p>
<p id="OyHJQl">As it turned out, Haaland scored 8 extra points with the chip, but since my opponent took a -4 hit for an extra transfer, on balance that left merely a 4 point disadvantage to overcome. I felt foolish for leaving two defensive clean sheets on the bench (Ben White’s 8 points and Hugo Bueno’s 6 points), but at least newcomer Kevin De Bruyne (5 points) outperformed Salah (3 points) who I dropped using my free transfer. Among unshared players, Kepa Arrizabalaga (10 pts) and Botman (6 pts) made the difference for me in a 76-69 win, as my opponent suffered poor performances from Phil Foden (1 pt) and Aleksandar Mitrović (0 pts) who flubbed a penalty kick. Phew!</p>
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<p id="nnwhmW">~</p>
<h3 id="ynTw3M">Sixth Match: GW21 (Round of 262,144)</h3>
<p id="1E85MK">While my rank rose into the top 1.7M, this time I found myself facing a true juggernaut, jack spanar, who was in the top 4K. Honestly, I was expecting my run to end here, and I would not have felt bad about it at all. Not only was my opponent in rarefied air with respect to brilliant performance covering the first half of the season, that manager was coming off an absolutely smashing show with 99 points in GW20. Highlighting another form of luck, had I faced jack spanar in GW20 instead of GW21, I would not only have lost, I would have been absolutely hammered, 99-76. As the saying goes, timing is everything!</p>
<p id="tzYHy4">I held one free transfer at my disposal, but I decided to keep it in my pocket with the announcement of a possible DGW22 featuring Manchester United and <a href="https://throughitalltogether.sbnation.com">Leeds United</a>. Between the two teams, I only had two players (Rashford and Shaw), and I decided I’d sure like to double that allotment to four players. </p>
<p id="GQ9z8Q">While I sat on my hands, my opponent made one transfer, dropping Bruno Fernandes for Pascal Groß. However, that actually turned out nicely for me, since the Brighton midfielder only returned 2 points while Fernandes actually delivered 5 pts. Our teams were largely the same, with both of us featuring Trippier, Almirón, Rashford, Kane and captain Haaland, while Arsenal defenders (Ben White and William Saliba) and midfielders (Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Ødegaard) pretty much canceled each other out. </p>
<p id="C6eHNd">Among unshared players, it was the third forward and keeper positions which paved the way for my 94-79 victory, with Eddie Nketiah (13 points) outdelivering Ivan Toney (1 pt) and Kepa (9 pts) likewise outperforming Eddie Pope (6 pts). My sixth victory, and third upset win, felt by far the most gratifying given how unexpected it was based on the Grand Canyon-esque gulf in global ranking combined with my lack of transfer activity.</p>
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<p id="bfaQSU">~</p>
<h3 id="Bc3GTT">Upcoming Seventh Match: GW22 (Round of 126,073)</h3>
<p id="8zVKSu">Unsurprisingly given my success so far in the FPL Cup, I am in a strong run of form. In the half dozen match-ups of this competition so far I have averaged a 75-58 victory, compared to a global average of 56 points. But of course everybody who remains has also won six straight, so nothing will come easy. There are more than 11M teams playing FPL, so with just over 125K remaining, it has whittled down to roughly the top 1% left at this point. Fun! </p>
<p id="GpWwfc">My seventh tilt coming in GW22 brings a match-up with AL GHAZI TEAM who is ranked just outside the top 1.5M. With me being just inside the top 1.2M, it goes back to being a very even match-up, so it should be a coin toss. What makes it insanely ridiculously even? We actually have practically the same team, with 12 of the 15 spots being identical! The only differences are at keeper (Danny Ward for me v. Nick Pope for my opponent), defender (Botman v. Neco Williams) and forward (Nketiah v. Mitrović). On top of that, just like me, my opponent also did not use any transfers in GW21, so both of us will have a pair of freebies to utilize. This tilt will surely be decided by the slimmest of margins! (Including the possibility of a tie and the resultant tie-breaker, of course, which could end being an actual — well, virtual — coin toss.)</p>
<p id="aG3f0x">With a mini-DGW22 featuring Manchester United and Leeds United as mentioned, I am planning on using both of my free transfers, likely adding one player from each team. I hold an unusually large amount of money (£2.1m) sitting in the bank, so it feels that my options are pretty open. The questions I find myself asking:</p>
<ul>
<li id="azZ8IZ">
<em>Should I use both of my free transfers? </em> If so, which players should I add (and drop)?</li>
<li id="wGeYwt">
<em>Should I use more than two transfers? </em> In single game weeks I am usually loath to take a points penalty for an additional transfer unless there are extenuating circumstances. But since this is a DGW, is it worth going beyond my free transfers, taking a -4 (or -8) hit and really loading up with an extra third (or fourth) player swap? </li>
<li id="9IryXX">
<em>Should I play a chip? </em>There is a bit of logic to using the Triple Captain chip on a Manchester United player such as Rashford with two home games against teams in the lower half of the table. However, given the Red Devils’ fixture congestion, I’m a bit wary. Additionally, while Rashford is certainly a star player, generally you want to hold it for a true superstar such as Haaland, Kane, KDB or Salah with at least one favorable match-up in a DGW. (Hence why I did not use it with Haaland or KDB in mini-DGW20 when Man City faced a pair of top five opponents in Man United and <a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com">Tottenham</a>.) </li>
</ul>
<p id="i1tOCA">I already have Manchester United’s best attacker in Marcus Rashford (108 points) and the Red Devils’ best defender in Luke Shaw (66 points). As much as I would theoretically love to drop KDB (£12.5m) for their other seeming must-have star Bruno Fernandes (£9.9m), Manchester City and Arsenal have a mini-DGW23 coming up, so it would be foolish to drop any Citizens or Gunners. Given the cost of Bruno Fernandes, without dropping KDB that makes it impossible to add Bruno without dropping Harry Kane, but the problem is that I don’t want to add a Man United or Leeds United forward in Kane’s place. </p>
<p id="y6Seyr">Instead, I could add keeper David De Gea (£4.9m) who has 77 points in 1,800 minutes (3.85 points per 90’), but I’ve already got Kepa Arrizabalaga (4.5m) who has 63 points in 1,035’ (5.48 points per 90’) and the “upgrade” doesn’t quite seem worth it. After all, with a severely limited number of free transfers, we have to be picky. </p>
<p id="8DgJjW">But I also need to consider Leeds United. Since I have to put Bruno Fernandes on the back burner, I should really start with Leeds’ most attractive fantasy asset by far, midfielder Rodrigo (92 points at a cost of £6.4m). Miguel Almiron (£5.8m) has failed to register a goal or assist in his past four games, seemingly reverting to past lackluster form. So let’s start by dropping Almiron for Rodrigo, which leaves me £1.5m left in the bank for my second free transfer. </p>
<p id="zcev8e">As mentioned, it would be foolish to drop any of my Man City or Arsenal players ahead of their mini-DGW23. I’m also loath to drop Harry Kane, Kieran Trippier or Kepa due to their valuable outstanding production this season. That leaves the following options for my second free transfer:</p>
<ul>
<li id="5zckKW">
<em>Upgrade at keeper from Danny Ward (£4.0m) to David De Gea (£4.9m). </em> (The downside: I would be wasting money on back-up keeper afterward unless I used another transfer. Would I use another transfer to Ederson in DGW23? Maybe, put probably not ideal.)</li>
<li id="amoek9">
<em>Upgrade at defender from Sven Botman (£4.4m) to Raphaël Varane (£4.8m).</em> (The downside: It would be a temporary upgrade for mini-DGW22, and thereafter I’d really want to use another transfer. That said, I could possibly see using another transfer to a Man City defender for DGW23. Then again, maybe MF would be better...</li>
<li id="YTWeWZ">
<em>Upgrade at midfield from Andreas Pereira (£4.5m) to Casemiro (£4.9m).</em> Unfortunately, I can’t afford Bruno Fernandes (£9.9m), Antony (£7.3m) or even Christian Eriksen (£6.3m). That leaves me with Casemiro who has 57 points in 1,158’ which isn’t anything special per se. But he has two games, which means he really brings the equivalent of 114 points for DGW22 (and really more since he only got his first start in GW10). Just one midfielder has scored as well on the season thus far (Martin Ødegaard with 117 points) to offer as much appeal in a single game week. And while I don’t think I’ll be able to afford Riyad Mahrez (£7.7m) in DGW23, I could simply swap Casemiro for Man City’s Rodri (£5.6m) in a similar venture. </li>
</ul>
<p id="7kKjUx">At the moment, I am considering this team, getting up to three Manchester United players and one from Leeds United:</p>
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<p id="0iTTnL">As mentioned, I’m thinking I should have Rashford as my captain. The problem is, other than Bueno (v. <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/">Liverpool</a>) and Ward (at Villa), who do I relegate to the bench? I’ll start Kepa (home v. Fulham) at keeper. In defense, I’ll start Shaw (DGW) along with Trippier and Botman (home v. <a href="https://bracethehammer.sbnation.com/">West Ham</a>). In midfield, I’ll be obligated to start Rashford, Rodrigo, and Casemiro (all DGW players). At forward, I have to start the game’s true superstar Haaland (at Tottenham). </p>
<p id="GgeCqL">That leaves three spots to give among my Arsenal players White, Martinelli and Nketiah (at <a href="https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com">Everton</a>) along with De Bruyne (at Tottenham) and Kane (v. Man City). Thus, I have to leave two of those five stars on my bench. Talk about tough choices! </p>
<p id="JMehcJ">I think I have to start Kane since he’s the game’s second most prolific player. After that, I don’t reckon I can leave out Martinelli and Nketiah given the appealing match-up and the fact that attackers on average score better than defenders. So that means I’m actually leaning toward leaving Man City superstar KDB (given his tough game at Spurs) and Arsenal’s White who has a very favorable fixture on my bench. Wow! Pretty crazy, but hey, that’s just the way the cookie crumbles some weeks (particularly double game weeks as this happens to be). </p>
<p id="ujqUsS">Given those tough choices resulting in leaving two high quality producers on the bench, I really don’t see the need to take an extra -4 (or -8) point hit for an extra hit (or two) since it’s hard to see any further DGW player “upgrade” being worth the penalty. Also, as mentioned, I’m leaning against using the Triple Captain chip due to Manchester United’s extreme fixture congestion which brings the risk of Rashford being rested one of the games and/or being pulled early in either/both fixtures. As always, there’s plenty of time left before the deadline, so we’ll see...</p>
<p id="GLnLbD">~</p>
<h3 id="UJfCTw">Other Cup Competitions</h3>
<p id="QTrFiL">While it may be the most prominent, the FPL Overall Cup is not the only FPL tournament going on. There are actually loads of others! Some (the league cups) have not even started yet. Of the tournaments in progress in which I am entered, I am still dancing in all of them. Due to a strong GW19 score, thankfully I earned a GW20 bye and then posted GW21 wins of 94-74 in the NBC Sports League Cup, 94-55 in the Spurs Cup and 94-50 in the USA Cup.</p>
<p id="v4zkoX">~</p>
<p id="CLs2q9">[<strong>CUP NOTE: </strong> If you are unsure of whether you are still alive in the FPL Cup or any other tournaments, go to <a href="https://fantasy.premierleague.com/">the main FPL fantasy page</a>, select the “Leagues and Cups” tab, then click on “Cups.”] </p>
<p id="whnOpq">~</p>
<p id="DL6vHg">[<strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong> All statistics, prices and screen grabs from this post come via <a href="https://fantasy.premierleague.com/">official Fantasy Premier League</a>.]</p>
<p id="xuZaiU">~</p>
<p id="zBwTQ0"><em>What do you think of my prospects heading into the 7th round? Would you make any different decisions for my team? And how about you, is your team still alive in the FPL Cup? If not, how far did you get before you crashed out? Or did you miss out on qualification? Let us know by answering the poll and then join in the comments section below!</em></p>
<p id="3QixeK">~</p>
<div id="3aWZs3"><div data-anthem-component="poll:11737031"></div></div>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2023/1/31/23569229/fpl-overall-cup-competition-stayin-alive-head-to-head-tournament-play-luck-skill-strategy-7th-roundChris Manfredi2022-11-15T06:00:00-08:002022-11-15T06:00:00-08:00FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022: Group E Preview
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<img alt="FIFA Ballon d’Or Gala 2014" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fbnlX_fpVPU4PxYCCVxQLv3fexw=/0x0:4768x3179/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71630342/461459208.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joachim Loew led Germany to the World Cup crown in 2014. Is another title in the offing for Germany under Hansi Flick? | Photo by Alexander Hassenstein - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Recent champions Spain and Germany are joined by Japan and Costa Rica. Which players should take our fantasy focus?</p> <p id="t95hDJ">While it may not be considered this tournament’s “Group of Death,” E is an absolute juggernaut as the only quartet featuring multiple World Cup winners. Not only that, but we do not have to go back far into the memory banks to recall these glories. Four-time champion Germany lifted its most recent World Cup trophy in 2014, just after Spain did so for the first (and so far only) time in 2010. </p>
<p id="Udf3ia">Everybody will expect that pair of European powers to sail through to the knockout round, but Japan and Costa Rica will both relish the chance to be giant killers with a fair amount of confidence that they can indeed pull off a surprise. After all, the Samurai Blue finished second in a tricky group featuring Colombia, Sengal and Poland in 2018, and while <em>Los Ticos</em> flamed out in the most recent tournament, they brilliantly finished first<em> </em>in their quartet of 2014 ahead of previous winners Uruguay, Italy and England. Get your popcorn at the ready, because Group E should be an absolute blast!</p>
<p id="NjZh4r">~</p>
<h2 id="hHwUtN">SPAIN</h2>
<p id="EzcBFs"><strong>FIFA Rank:</strong> #7</p>
<p id="mryGtB"><strong>Betting </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/odds"><strong>odds</strong></a><strong> to win: </strong>17/2 (bet365)</p>
<p id="CiDzDQ"><strong>Qualified via:</strong> 1st place in UEFA Group B (ahead of Sweden, Greece, Georgia and Kosovo)</p>
<p id="WzVdpI"><strong>Manager: </strong>Luis Enrique</p>
<p id="QAZ7JE"><strong>2018 </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/fifa-womens-world-cup"><strong>World Cup</strong></a><strong> Result: </strong>Round of 16 (lost to host nation Russia)</p>
<p id="5ZrXXY"><strong>Probable Formation: </strong>4-3-3</p>
<p id="oCaFn2">Spain enter as the betting favorite to win the group, the fifth pick overall in the tournament behind only fellow heavyweights Brazil, Argentina, France and England. While such lofty expectations may seem justified for a team that won the title in 2010, to live up to such a forecast <em>La Roja</em> will need to improve on recent performances after failing to make it out of the group stage in 2014 (finishing behind Netherlands and Chile) and being unceremoniously knocked out by the hosts in the most recent Round of 16. </p>
<p id="kswc6B">The beloved Vicente del Bosque presided as manager from 2008 to 2016 as Spain won not only the 2010 World Cup, but also surrounding European crowns in 2008 and 2012. After del Bosque’s departure, the team suffered a tumultuous spell with four different coaches from 2016-2019: Julen Lotepegui, Fernando Hierro, Luis Enrique and Robert Moreno, none lasting more than 20 matches in that period. However, Enrique came back to the post in 2019, returning a sense of tranquility and success as Spain advanced to the 2020 Euro semifinals, losing to eventual champion Italy on penalties. </p>
<p id="mpikaQ">Spain comfortably won their group to advance to this World Cup, but the numbers were not especially eye-popping as seen from many of the other big powers. Overall in their eight qualifiers, Spain won six, drew once and lost once, scoring 15 goals and conceding five times for a goal difference of +10, barely more than +1 per game. Three victories came by a single goal, with just one win by more than two goals (a 4-0 victory over Georgia). </p>
<h3 id="nMyrz9">Spain Players to Consider for Your Fantasy Teams</h3>
<p id="HpsFJ2">As such, despite what seems a wealth of attacking talent in a team known for offensive flair, it may actually make more sense to start on the defensive end. After all, we must recall the 2010 World Cup champions who scored only four goals in winning their group, then followed that up with a string of four 1-0 victories in the knockout stage. </p>
<p id="sXcmtu"><strong>Goalkeeper Unai Simon ($5.5m)</strong> is attractive at a small discount compared to the $6.0m options you will find in net for the FIFA World Cup fantasy portal. The Athletic Bilboa backstop may not boast much in the way of global name recognition, but Simon is the real deal, having kept three clean sheets in Spain’s final four Nations League matches this summer, blanking Czech Republic, Portugal and Switzerland. </p>
<p id="Nz2qJp">Clean sheet potential also means we should consider <strong>the defender position</strong>; two-way star <strong>Jordi Alba ($6.0m)</strong> is the automatic pick, having racked up 10 goals with 19 assists in 86 international appearances. In World Cup qualifying, he notched four assists in four games, while scoring once in his recent set of four Nations League appearances. The only worry is that the 33-year old has been a somewhat irregular starter in recent times. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="FC Barcelona v UD Almeria - LaLiga Santander" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tcd84nemqkLi4-gcO72or_zXDyw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24191278/1439508676.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Silvestre Szpylma/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>In his third World Cup, defender Jordi Alba will look to be a fantasy favorite yet again.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="HCh5NP">The expected starters <strong>in midfield</strong> — Sergio Busquets, Koke and Pedri — are a desert in terms of goals or assists, so I’d pass there. Pedri brilliantly controls the game, but as with the otherworldly Xavi in Spain’s recent golden days, that watchable wizardry generally fails to translate into an actual fantasy payout. Other than Simon and Alba, if I’m going to consider investing in Spanish players, <strong>forward Alvaro Morata ($8.0m) </strong>seems like the best bet to return value, having scored 27 goals with 6 asissts in 57 international appearances and being the expected #1 penalty kick taker. Ferran Torres and Ansu Fati are a bit cheaper, but not enough to make me overly excited about either given Spain’s tendency for limited goal scoring. </p>
<p id="px1j4M">~</p>
<h2 id="vxRneW">GERMANY</h2>
<p id="2Zrzjv"><strong>FIFA Rank:</strong> #11</p>
<p id="KKizvG"><strong>Betting </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/odds"><strong>odds</strong></a><strong> to win: </strong>10/1 (bet365)</p>
<p id="9CIB18"><strong>Qualified via:</strong> 1st place in EUFA Group J (ahead of North Macedonia, Romania, Armenia, Iceland and Liechtenstein)</p>
<p id="FAT6LA"><strong>Manager: </strong> Hansi Flick</p>
<p id="JNdFB5"><strong>2018 </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/fifa-womens-world-cup"><strong>World Cup</strong></a><strong> Result: </strong> Group stage (last place in Group F behind Sweden, Mexico and South Korea)</p>
<p id="PohRRY"><strong>Probable Formation: </strong>4-2-3-1</p>
<p id="yTi5ib">Following the 2014 World Cup triumph, Germany flopped in 2018, suffering shutout losses to Mexico and South Korea in failing to make it out of the group stage. Naturally, <em>Die Mannshaft</em> will be extremely energized and focused to ensure a strong rebound performance this time. Hansi Flick has plenty to live up to following the departure of legendary coach Joachim Low after the 2020 Euros. </p>
<p id="5ZRRdu">Unlike Spain, Germany absolutely dominated its qualifying group, lighting it up with 36 goals and only 4 conceded (+32 goal difference) in its 10 games (9 wins, 1 defeat). 15 of those scores came in home blitzes of Armenia and Liechtenstein, not exactly the toughest competition. More recently, Germany finished third in its group of the EUFA Nations League this past summer (behind Italy and Hungary, while ahead of England), but scored 11 goals in its 6 games compared to the 8 scores from Spain which won its group (over Portugal, Switzerland and Czech Republic). Thus, I think Germany’s attack is more attractive than Spain’s, so let’s start there.</p>
<p id="puSrQO">Normally longtime star forward Thomas Muller would be high on the list; however, after scoring three goals and adding three assists in Germany’s final four games of World Cup qualifying in late 2021, Muller managed only one goal with no helpers in the six more recent Nations League tilts. Likewise, after tallying 8 goals with 21 assists in 32 Bundesliga matches last year, this season so far he’s managed just 2 goals and 3 assists in 8 league games. Thus, I’m a bit worried about slipping form as he’s now reached 33 years old. </p>
<p id="kddt9j">Costing a buck less than his strike partner Muller, a better value up front is <strong>forward Kai Havertz ($8.5m)</strong>. Like Muller at <a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com">Bayern Munich</a>, Havertz’s domestic production at Chelsea has been nothing to write home about this season. However, Havertz has 10 goals and 10 assists in 30 games overall for Germany, and comes into this World Cup in good form for the national side having scored a brace in the final Nations League game, a 3-3 draw with England, leaving him with three goals in his past six Nations League tilts. </p>
<p id="rv8QNQ">Even so, I think I actually prefer Germany’s engine room to the forwards. The standout pick for me in that department is <strong>midfielder Ilkay Gundogan ($7.5m)</strong>, largely because he should be first in line on penalty kicks, having gone 6 for 6 in his career for the national team. Like Havertz, Gundogan also comes into the World Cup in strong form for Germany, having scored twice across the final three matches of Nations League. Prior to that, the <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a> stalwart netted five times in his eight appearances covering the most recent set of World Cup qualifiers. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Borussia Dortmund v Manchester City: Group G - UEFA Champions League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Tk4Oa0jcrrGEiNjJMy54HlmUHv8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24191281/1436515261.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Marcel ter Bals/Orange Pictures/BSR Agency/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Manchester City and EPL fans are very familiar with the skills of midfielder Ilkay Gundogan.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="SshzuX">Otherwise, there’s a head-spinning array of attractive options in the rest of the Germany midfield with good chances for scoring/assising from open play: Leroy Sane ($9.0m), Jamal Musiala ($8.0m) and Joshua Kimmich ($7.0m), each of whom Bundlesliga or <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a> fans will know well for their exploits at the club level with Bayern Munich. Of that trio, Musiala has excelled the most this season in the Bundesliga, scoring 9 times with 5 assists in 13 games. Sane has done the most in Champions League, with 4 scores and 2 helpers in 4 appearances. But I think the focus should be more on what they’ve done for the national team, particularly recently. While Sane completely blanked at the Nations League competition and Musiala managed just one assist, Kimmich scored 2 goals with 1 assist in his 6 games. On top of that, Kimmich is the cheapest of the trio. <strong>So my second pick in midfield after Gundogan is Kimmich.</strong> </p>
<p id="SiMAcf">I am not particularly high on Germany on the defensive end, as the team failed to keep a single clean sheet in its half dozen recent Nations League affairs. The only way I could advise investing in a defender or keeper would be in the case of an outstanding budget bargain or a two-way threat. Right now, I don’t see anyone operating in that vein, with a big void caused by Kimmich’s position change from defender to midfielder. As wonderful as a pedigree that keeper Manuel Neuer (not yet in system) has displayed in his long and distinguished career, I feel it’s too risky to invest in him given an expected high-priced tag. </p>
<p id="pcG39q">~</p>
<h2 id="7sI0AD">JAPAN</h2>
<p id="Ho4kEY"><strong>FIFA Rank:</strong> #24</p>
<p id="EP4XL6"><strong>Betting </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/odds"><strong>odds</strong></a><strong> to win: </strong>250/1 (bet365)</p>
<p id="J4laPt"><strong>Qualified via:</strong> 2nd place in AFC Group B (behind Saudi Arabia and ahead of Australia, Oman, China and Vietnam)</p>
<p id="BvGCYV"><strong>Manager: </strong> Hajime Moriyasu</p>
<p id="mKAI7J"><strong>2018 </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/fifa-womens-world-cup"><strong>World Cup</strong></a><strong> Result: </strong> Round of 16 (lost to Belgium)</p>
<p id="5r2ZEk"><strong>Probable Formation: </strong>4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1</p>
<p id="RAZBxa">Your eyes are surely agog at Japan’s 250/1 odds to take the World Cup trophy despite being ranked #24 in the world. That staggering ratio is not an indictment of the team’s talent, but rather purely related to the precarious predicament of being put in the same group with Spain and Germany. To win the title, the first step is finishing in the top half of the assigned quartet, which is going to be an uphill climb more daunting than ascending Mount Fuji. However, stranger things have happened.</p>
<p id="9FClFR">Hajime Moriyasu has presided over the team since 2018, lending a sense of security in that realm. In World Cup qualifying, Japan tied for second-most goals in its six-team group with only 12 scores in 10 games, while finishing first by conceding only four times. Thus, it seems that this squad’s strength is in defense. However, in the past nine matches since June — friendlies along with East Asian Football Championship fixtures — Japan scored 3+ goals on four occasions (against Paraguay, Ghana, Hong Kong and South Korea). Given the high level of competition in this group, though, I think it’s fair to say that Japan will have to hang its hat on the defensive end.</p>
<p id="GEP4fU">If you’re looking for a cheap option in net, <strong>goalkeeper Daniel Schmidt ($4.0m) </strong>certainly could prove a brilliant play if he can keep a clean sheet or two and make a flurry of saves. One potential problem is that the position seems to be a bit up in the air, as Japan has rotated keepers in recent friendlies, so be sure to double check team news before pulling the trigger on Schmidt (or Eiji Kawashima at $4.5m, or Shuichi Gonda who is not yet in the system). </p>
<p id="XZbZfR">Another risk that could pay off nicely is their cheapest expecting starting <strong>defender Yuto Nagatomo ($3.5m) </strong>if you are looking to save in the back to spend more in attack; any offensive returns would be a bonus, and the 36-year old has two assists in 11 World Cup appearances. Somewhat along the same lines as Spain’s Alba, though, we have to worry that being up in years may keep Gonda from starting all three group matches. </p>
<p id="xDySz9">While Takumi Minamino is better known to the average fan (and will be the likely penalty kick taker), at $7.0m he’s a bit too rich for my blood since goals may be tough to come by for the Japan attack. I’d prefer to invest in comparatively cut rate <strong>midfielder Daichi Kamada ($5.5m) </strong>who comes into the World Cup in a rich vein of form given his outstanding start to the 2022-23 season with Eintracht Frankfurt: seven goals with four assists in 12 Bundlesliga fixtures along with three goals in six Champions League affairs. Additionally, he has scored two goals with an assist in his past five international friendlies since June. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Eintracht Frankfurt v TSG Hoffenheim - Bundesliga" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HVYSnflPusbcQySWlJvowyqC960=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24191290/1244643558.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Simon Hofmann/Bundesliga/Bundesliga Collection via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Attacking midfielder Daichi Kamada will be a breakout candidate to watch at the upcoming World Cup.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="dHsnS9">~</p>
<h2 id="JUWvvI">COSTA RICA</h2>
<p id="9Zzfo1"><strong>FIFA Rank:</strong> #31</p>
<p id="Y1vRAJ"><strong>Betting </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/odds"><strong>odds</strong></a><strong> to win: </strong>750/1 (bet365)</p>
<p id="Ys00Eb"><strong>Qualified via:</strong> beat New Zealand in playoff game after finishing in 4th place in CONCACAF (behind Canada, Mexico and the United States and ahead of Panama, Jamaica, El Salvador and Honduras) </p>
<p id="0ZRizS"><strong>Manager: </strong> Luis Fernando Suarez</p>
<p id="8mnmdJ"><strong>2018 </strong><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/fifa-womens-world-cup"><strong>World Cup</strong></a><strong> Result: </strong> Group stage (last place in Group E behind Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia) </p>
<p id="C8DBrz"><strong>Probable Formation: </strong>4-2-3-1 or 5-4-1</p>
<p id="T0zof4">The joy of 2014’s group #1 finish was quickly forgotten in 2018 with a last place result, but the fact that Costa Rica has made three straight World Cups is worthy of celebration. However, there is definitely the feeling that this could be the last hurrah. While manager Luis Fernando Suarez is a relative newcomer having been hired about a year and a half ago, he will rely on a bunch of grizzled veterans who have been together for this long and impressive run, as most of the projected starters are 30 years of age or older. </p>
<p id="X8wVy5">While Costa Rica averaged scoring under a goal per game in its 14 CONCACAF qualifiers, <em>Los Ticos</em> conceded only eight goals, more than just Canada. In such a daunting group now, the team will surely continue with its defensive focus. Despite Costa Rica being heavy underdogs, <strong>superstar goalkeeper Keylor Navas ($5.0m) </strong>is worthy of consideration. We can be sure he will rack up saves, though there is certainly risk that he may not be able to keep clean sheets with any regularity, and he may be a bit rusty from riding the pine behind first choice Gianluigi Donnarumma at Paris Saint-Germain. But Navas and Costa Rica conceded only one goal total across the final seven games of qualifying (including the playoff), so there is reason for hope. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Costa Rica v New Zealand - 2022 FIFA World Cup Playoff" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y6CFc92vzx-fsNmo3osmgElee0U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24191284/1241312345.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Matthew Ashton - AMA/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>He may not be on the biggest national team, but goalkeeper Keylor Navas is definitely one of the major stars of Group E.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="pArlqr">A la Japan, I wouldn’t want to pay too much in defense, but Costa Rica’s cheapest<strong> defender expected to start, Keysher Fuller ($3.5m) </strong>could pay off if you get lucky. With Costa Rica unlikely to score many goals, I would shy away from their attack. The only one on that end who looks to have value is <strong>midfielder Celso Borges ($4.5m)</strong> since he is dirt cheap for a presumed penalty kick specialist; of course, I’d probably rather pay more for Germany’s Gundogan since he will have much more of a chance of actually getting to take one. </p>
<p id="8GugeI">~</p>
<h2 id="3UvhtQ">THE FINAL VERDICT</h2>
<p id="w6sl74">Spain and Germany are heavy favorites to go through to the knockout stage, and that is deservedly so for the European powers. The hope for Japan and Costa Rica is that the Spain/Germany match turns into a lopsided affair, enabling the possibility for the Japan/Costa Rica winner (unless it is a draw of course) to secure a second place finish if they can surprise the Spain/Germany loser with a draw (or shock with a win). While that scenario is unlikely, it is not at all out of the realm of possibility. Of the underdog pair, Japan should have the better shot at pulling it off than Costa Rica, with the ideal situation being Spain dominating Costa Rica and Germany in the first two games, then resting some of its stars for the third fixture with Japan. </p>
<p id="OyQ6HA">Naturally, Japan and Costa Rica will likely try to keep the score at nil-nil against Spain and Germany for as long as possible. <em>Will they be able to?</em> is the magic question. While Germany and Spain do possess offensive talents, I worry that many of these games will tend to be low scoring, particularly as Spain has shown a penchant to be happy with 1-0 victories. The team that will make out best in this group will almost assuredly be whichever from Germany or Spain wins their match-up, particularly if it ends up being somewhere along the lines of 2-0 or 3-1. But of course, the caveat is, <em>what if they draw?</em> (And in that case, <em>what if it’s 1-1</em>, failing to provide much firepower while also leaving no clean sheet?) If you feel strongly about Germany or Spain cruising to victory in the group, don’t be shy about grabbing multiple players from that team. Otherwise, it may be best to pick lightly from Group E, or avoid altogether. </p>
<p id="KJT9MF">Should you choose to wade in these waters, there are a few intriguing options. I am wary of investing in expensive players here, rather the mid-priced or budget picks for this group seem to offer the best likely value. My targets would be from the Spain defense, the Germany midfield and the goalkeeper position; unbelievably, I have actually recommended considering three net minders among this quartet of teams. From a fan’s perspective, with two European heavyweights on offer along with a legitimate chance of underdog surprise, this should definitely be a fun group to watch!</p>
<p id="uY3xU8">~</p>
<p id="W8Kb4A"><strong>[</strong><em><strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong></em><strong> Prices, statistics and other information used in this post came from the </strong><a href="https://play.fifa.com/fantasy-classic/team"><strong>official FIFA World Cup Fantasy site</strong></a><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/"><strong>Transfermarkt</strong></a><strong>, </strong><a href="https://www.wikipedia.org/"><strong>Wikipedia</strong></a><strong> and </strong><a href="https://www.fantasyfootballreports.com/world-cup-penalty-takers/"><strong>FPL Reports</strong></a><strong>.]</strong></p>
<p id="mVErt6">~</p>
<p id="GSTRQJ">Chart your pathway to success using our <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/11/12/23447165/nma-fifa-worldcup-2022-how-to-play-wildcard-limitless-bench-strategy-tactics"><strong>how-to guide</strong></a> to the official fantasy World Cup game, check out our Group Stage <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/11/12/23444404/fifa-world-cup-2022-difficulty-table-brail-france-netherlands-argentina-portugal-germany-spain"><strong>fixture difficulty table</strong></a>, and join our mini-league using the link below!</p>
<p id="zfnHU8"><a href="https://play.fifa.com/fantasy-classic/join-league/K2QVR5ZB"><strong>https://play.fifa.com/fantasy-classic/join-league/K2QVR5ZB</strong></a></p>
<p id="nWFH2C">~</p>
<p id="R8ttyL"><em>How do you expect Group E to turn out? Are there any players from this quartet of teams who you are planning to put in your fantasy teams? Is there anybody else you have your eye on aside from those mentioned above? Take the poll below and be sure to share your thoughts and ask any questions in the comments section!</em></p>
<p id="AQ5gEH">~</p>
<div id="5pKmmu"><div data-anthem-component="poll:11618655"></div></div>
<p id="s1dbIR"></p>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/11/15/23446160/2022-fifa-world-cup-group-e-preview-fantasy-spain-germany-japan-costa-rica-player-picks-qatarChris Manfredi2022-10-31T07:26:46-07:002022-10-31T07:26:46-07:00UCL MD-6 Rate My Team: Limitless Chip Edition
<figure>
<img alt="Real Madrid v Eintracht Frankfurt - UEFA Super Cup" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DVcH79C9XD_3dG1x3FaekUzyCts=/0x0:4282x2855/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71565441/1242425588.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Can’t go wrong selecting these two Real Madrid attacking stars, right? | Photo by David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With a thorny matchday restricting my theoretically unlimited options, have I picked the right players?</p> <p id="7uv2Ar">As the rubber meets the road, it is not a relaxed ride but rather a slippery street with the long-awaited arrival of Matchday-6 for <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a> fantasy. So many teams’ fates lie in the balance, and key players will have to step up with strong performances in order to make it through to the knockout round of this tournament by finishing in the top two positions in their groups. Other sides find themselves fighting it out for third place, which brings with it the consolation prize of a Europa League spot. </p>
<p id="Xv9JG8">All the while, many teams have no chance for advancement in Champions League or grabbing a Europa League spot and are left playing merely for pride, so their managers may want to keep their weary stars away from possible injury. On top of that, teams which are secured (or nearly secured) of first place in their groups, or even the second spot, will also be very tempted to rest their regulars, saving their legs for domestic league and/or cup competition during this extremely exhausting pre-World Cup period.</p>
<p id="JpvITN">This means that for me, MD-6 is all about risk aversion. We have 15 positions to fill, and simply put, the more zeroes (or ones) we swallow from those players being left out of the starting line-up, the more dismal our total scores tend to end up. Do you really want to be stuck, for instance, with Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah as the high-priced stars of your team, with a good chance that two or even all three of them won’t start the final fixture of the group stage?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="nBNbwM">
<h3 id="aqx8zv">MY CHIP STRATEGY THIS SEASON</h3>
<p id="hoVtvD">Before we go forward, it’s always important to look back to see how we got to where we are. I went into this UCL fantasy campaign with the following chip strategy:</p>
<ul>
<li id="TSmAAP">
<strong>Matchday-1: </strong>Focus purely on the mix of best players, match-ups and values in MD-1, because I was going to:</li>
<li id="Gjywhx">
<strong>Matchday-2:</strong> Use the Wildcard Chip in MD-2, focusing on the mix of best players, match-ups and values for MD-2 through MD-5, because I was going to:</li>
<li id="8BFDxw">
<strong>Matchday-6:</strong> Use the Limitless Chip in MD-6. We love having star players on our teams because they reliably tend to produce points. However, MD-6 always contains the biggest risk of those star players being rested. Why? Because star players tend to be on the best teams, which tend to do best in the competition, thus having the biggest likelihood of already being through to the next round by this point. Compared to playing the chip earlier, I do lose out on being able to pick from the full range of superstars since I am expecting many to be rested, but what I gain now is much more certainty that all or most of my players will actually start.</li>
</ul>
<p id="PqSTTD">Naturally, there was always the chance that fate would force me to alter that strategy and use my limitless chip earlier than I had designed. Luckily, I was able to avoid a huge rash of injuries/suspensions/unexpected non-starters in any of the matchdays prior to this point and thankfully could afford to stick to my original plan. How has it worked out? Not brilliantly epic, but not too shabby, I’d say. These are my scores so far:</p>
<p id="ZO5zH7"><em>Matchday-1:</em> 99 points</p>
<p id="cr7oSu"><em>Matchday-2: </em> 61 points</p>
<p id="3kKue6"><em>Matchday-3:</em> 80 points</p>
<p id="guy6OD"><em>Matchday-4: </em> 79 points</p>
<p id="xBehA8"><em>Matchday-5: </em> 82 points</p>
<p id="YOJFqJ">My total of 401 points through the first five matchdays has left me currently ranked at #125 in the NMA league, #247 in the USA and #15,313 overall globally. If I can put my limitless chip to good use, maybe I can move further up the ranks ahead of the group stage.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="5pxGgS">
<h3 id="t2YGc9">MY STRATEGY FOR MATCHDAY-6</h3>
<p id="uWpSLd">First I need to decide which teams I am focusing on, then I can pick from among their players.</p>
<p id="Yqt2kk"><strong>PLAYERS I AM TARGETING HIGHLY (FROM TEAMS WITH EVERYTHING TO PLAY FOR): </strong></p>
<p id="T9uMWG">Managers whose teams are not yet through to the next round but are still fighting for first or second place in their groups (<a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com"><em>Tottenham Hotspur</em></a><em>, Sporting CP, Eintracht Frankfurt, Marseille, RB Leipzig, </em><a href="https://acmilan.theoffside.com"><em>AC Milan</em></a><em>, RB Salzburg</em> and <em>Shakhtar Donetsk</em>) or whose teams are battling for third place (<a href="https://www.intothecalderon.com"><em>Atletico Madrid</em></a><em>, Bayer Leverkusen, </em><a href="https://www.blackwhitereadallover.com"><em>Juventus</em></a><em>, Maccabi Haifa</em>), will be heavily incentivized to field their best XI possible. </p>
<p id="X0ZtMu">Of the aforementioned teams, I think that the following sides have the most attractive match-ups: <strong>RB Leipzig, AC Milan, Bayer Leverkusen, Porto and Sporting</strong>. Of course, that does not mean I will completely shy away from stars from the other teams, with Tottenham talisman Harry Kane coming easily to mind as someone not to rule out. </p>
<p id="EoGEkV">~</p>
<p id="WKm2n2"><strong>PLAYERS I ALSO WILL TARGET (FROM TEAMS WITH SOMETHING TO PLAY FOR, AND TEAMS IN THE EARLY TUESDAY GAMES): </strong></p>
<p id="kUm3GX">Squads which have secured going through to the knockout stage, but are still battling with a legitimate shot at first place, leave us in a bit of a tricky situation. Admittedly, there is some risk that their gaffers will be tempted to give the big stars a rest, but ultimately I think they will probably put forth their best XI in hopes of finishing first. The teams in this department: <em>Brugge, Porto, </em><a href="https://www.managingmadrid.com"><em>Real Madrid</em></a><em>, Paris Saint-Germain</em> and <em>Benfica</em>. Of those, I think <strong>Real Madrid, Benfica, PSG and Porto</strong> have favorable match-ups. </p>
<p id="1hNO8C">With respect to the early games, it’s never a bad idea to target players from the first four teams on Tuesday, especially at this point. In Matchday-6 which promises so much line-up uncertainty, guaranteed starters became all the more valuable. These are the two early Tuesday match-ups (the Group B quartet): <em>Porto v. Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen v. Club Brugge.</em> While Porto and Brugge are dueling it out for the top spot in the group, unfortunately excitement will have to be tempered a bit since neither is a so-called traditional powerhouse full of superstars, and beyond that, their opponents will both be trying hard to win in an effort to grab the Europa League spot. Let’s just say that there was no shortage of groups we would have preferred to see in the early Tuesday slot instead, but hey, them’s the breaks!</p>
<p id="380XyG">~</p>
<p id="gnfIbV"><strong>PLAYERS I PLAN ON AVOIDING (FROM TEAMS WITH NOTHING TO PLAY FOR):</strong></p>
<p id="gjMi0P">Regular starters from teams with nothing to play for will be at elevated risk of being rested in favor of domestic designs with an added eye to giving younger/fringe players invaluable Champions League experience. There are many categories of teams in this department:</p>
<ul>
<li id="eVIPT6">1st place secured or reasonably secured: <em>Napoli, </em><a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com"><em>Bayern Munich</em></a><em>, Chelsea </em>and <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com"><em>Manchester City</em></a>, </li>
<li id="Iqokfy">2nd place secured and not reasonably alive for 1st place: <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/"><em>Liverpool</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://www.serpentsofmadonnina.com"><em>Inter Milan</em></a> and <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com"><em>Borussia Dortmund</em></a>, </li>
<li id="dAycT0">3rd place secured or fairly secured and not reasonably alive for 1st or 2nd place: <em>Barcelona, Ajax</em> and <em>Sevilla</em>, and </li>
<li id="o28yMu">4th place secured or fairly secured and not reasonably alive for 3rd place: <em>Viktoria Plzen, Dinamo Zagreb, Rangers, Celtic</em> and <em>FC Copenhagen</em>. </li>
</ul>
<p id="SCdPZl">Now, a strategy that is not without its merits is to pick usual bench players from big teams whose teams are already through to the next round and will expect to slide into the XI. For instance, Manchester City attackers such as Jack Grealish and Julian Alvarez could pay off handsomely given a home match-up against Sevilla. But due to the uncertainty factor, I will probably avoid that type of selection. The only thing worse than picking a regular starter (such as Haaland or Kevin de Bruyne) who ends up resting is picking a usual benchwarmer (such as Grealish or Alvarez) you’re hoping will start but who ends up stuck on the bench. With uncertainty the theme of the day surrounding the sides in this section, everybody among these teams will carry a huge amount of risk whether they are a regular starter or usual benchwarmer since none have the benefit of featuring in Tuesday’s first four games.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="CHrRf8">
<h3 id="9xJIRQ">MY FIRST DRAFT TEAM</h3>
<p id="5PYMGG">I’ve got unlimited funds, but unfortunately as you have seen I have narrowed my focus to a very limited number of teams, so my total spend will surely not be astronomical as it would have been in one of the earlier matchdays. Even so, let’s start off in the pricey section of the store with the glory boys in attack.</p>
<p id="Hrfqab"><strong>FORWARDS</strong></p>
<p id="UmU6Jt">My top target teams with favorable match-ups (RB Leipzig, AC Milan, Bayer Leverkusen, Porto and Sporting) do not have an abundance of star forwards, so I’m going to go a bit outside and dip into my top target team tier with less favorable opponents (Tottenham) and my secondary target team tier (PSG and Real Madrid) to round out my range of choices. For Bayer Leverkusen, Patrik Schick has been out injured for a while, so even if he looks set to pass fit he seems too risky of a pick given the quality of other choices available.</p>
<div id="4kku0g"><div data-anthem-component="table:11590122"></div></div>
<p id="7k2YVV"><em>Likely primary PK takers:</em> Mbappe, Benzema, Taremi, Giroud, Diaby (if Schick does not pass fit) and Kane.</p>
<p id="COdE7J">I’d normally start with Tuesday players, but as you can see by how I’ve arranged the chart above, instead my attention is on Wednesday. After all, Mbappe and Messi are tearing it up both in Champions League and League 1, and the French side has a favorable match-up at struggling Juventus despite traveling to Italy. (Following his third yellow card of the competition in MD-5, Neymar is flagged as being suspended for MD-6.) While PSG are securely through to the next round, they are fighting it out for the #1 spot in their group which usually (but not always) offers a benefit when it comes to having a more favorable opponent to start the knockout round. PSG generally win Ligue 1 in a cakewalk and this season looks to be no different as they currently hold a 5-point lead on second place Lens, so there is less need for their stars to be rested for domestic competition than would be for most (if not all) other teams in their predicament. So while there is a bit of a risk to their being rested, I feel fairly comfortable (fingers crossed!) that they will start. So I’m going to get my team started with Mbappe, their dynamic superduperstar and PK specialist. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Paris Saint-Germain v Maccabi Haifa FC: Group H - UEFA Champions League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rLXErcZOm0uawQuLoot4-fjF56Y=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24148847/1436655735.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Xavier Laine/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Neymar is suspended, but Mbappe and Messi are still worthy options to consider.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="mSB4DW">For my second striker, it is tempting to go with Messi following his recent two goal, two assist heroics. But PSG is not at home this time, and their opponent is not Maccabi Haifa. On top of that, after having moved from Barcelona, Messi is not his team’s PK taker of choice any more. Like PSG, Real Madrid play Wednesday and are through to the next round but still battling for the #1 spot in their group. With a favorable match-up at home against Celtic, Karim Benzema seems the standout selection, the caveat being if he passes fit. While Benzema has not done much this injury-riddled UCL season, who can forget his brilliant performance leading the line for last year’s champion? He also has still done plenty of damage domestically in La Liga despite limited game time. I will pencil in Benzema as my number two up front for now, pending any injury updates before the deadline. </p>
<p id="4wE9fP">For my third striker, it’s not an easy choice. That said, it never is! I don’t want all three of my strikers playing the same day, since forwards are generally the standout captain choices. Even though it is possible I could decide to go with a different position instead, I want a strong option at striker to captain on Tuesday, rather than three to decide from with Wednesday’s armband if my Tuesday captain blanks. So that rules out Messi, Silva and Werner. </p>
<p id="wmxaSD">Kane would at first glance seem the obvious choice due to his superstar status, but I harbor a few worries. First, while Kane has done very well in the EPL, he’s managed next to nothing in his five UCL appearances. Second, the match is at Marseille, and that tilts it so that the French side should be favored. Third, the Tottenham attack has looked limp in recent weeks without being able to feature either from the injured pair of Dejan Kulusevski or Richarlison. That leaves me leaning toward Mehdi Taremi of Porto. Taremi has lit it up in the UCL thus far (nearly doubling Kane’s production in fewer minutes), while also performing admirably in Liga Portugal. Like Kane, Taremi should be on PKs and like Tottenham, Porto are fighting for the #1 spot in their group. But while Spurs travel on the road to face Marseille, Porto will be at home against a disappointing Atletico Madrid side whose back line has looked unexpectedly suspect. I’m going with Taremi.</p>
<p id="mmkyDp">~ </p>
<p id="zUcyFN"><strong>MIDFIELDERS</strong></p>
<p id="hqwDHD">In midfield, the superstar likes of Mo Salah, Kevin De Bruyne and Sadio Mane may be too risky to pick, but there is still an abundance of attractive options at my disposal. As with the strikers, I want somewhat of a balance but I’d love for it to be more front-loaded (ideally three or four on Tuesday, one or two on Wednesday), but it not as much related to the captain choice. Instead, it has to do with flexibility in terms of bringing in players from the bench as needed; I want the likelihood of having enough low scores from Tuesday that I will need to bring in all my bench players for Wednesday, whereas if my team is back loaded, I may leave one or two players needlessly languishing on the bench. Ultimately, though, it’s usually more important just to pick the best options. Also, as with Kane in the striker part, I’m widening the view just a bit to include Tottenham in order to get fellow world class attacker Son into the mix of choices. Let’s see what we’ve got here in the engine room. </p>
<div id="JYKNIf"><div data-anthem-component="table:11590274"></div></div>
<p id="LtZJh3"><em>Likely primary PK takers:</em> Goncalves (if he starts), Nkunku and J. Mario.</p>
<p id="fy3l12">Nkunku is Leipzig’s #1 pen taker, so as much as I hate kicking things off with a Wednesday player, let’s start with him. Turning my attention to Tuesday next, I can’t say no to Son. I know, I know, what about the worries I have about the Tottenham attack that kept me from picking Kane? Well, there are only three forward spots, while there are five midfield positions to fill. Son shared the EPL Golden Boot last season, scoring 23 goals. (Also, full disclosure: I’m a Spurs fan.) He’s in. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uWZr3OHB9s8vQm8HSFBEi6uNeaw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24149058/1425456195.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>We all love to see Son’s beautiful smile when he scores, which is often.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="KllEcS"> Otherwise, as much as I hate doing it, it seems unavoidable to turn back to Wednesday where we have Porto’s primary PK taker Joao Mario and otherworldly Real Madrid star Real Vinicius Jr. My fifth midfielder has to play on Tuesday. I’d love to grab Pedro Goncalves who is Sporting’s primary PK taker, but he is listed by the UCL fantasy portal as “Unlikely to start next game.” Do they know something the rest of us outside Portugal don’t know? I don’t know, but I’m worried. So let’s finish off the position with his teammate Marcus Edwards, who is faring quite well both in UCL and Liga Portugal this season. </p>
<p id="nLLe9G">~</p>
<p id="b001W5"><strong>DEFENDERS</strong></p>
<p id="ne5RlB">The beauty in defense is that now I don’t necessarily have to focus on cheaper defenders, which was my strategy in the first five rounds. With my tilt toward Wednesday players so far (five Wednesday, three Tuesday), I do need to prioritize Tuesday defenders. While defenders — particularly central defenders — are not as likely to be rested as forwards or midfielders, there is still enough or a risk that I prefer to target the same teams as before. However, while there aren’t any players really jumping off the page with respect to Marseille attackers, I might as well open the field to both Tottenham and Marseille at the back end. </p>
<div id="1LY9k7"><div data-anthem-component="table:11590455"></div></div>
<p id="VasSJD">As usual, I’m looking for a mix of Champions League and domestic league production, but with defenders it can be tougher to shake out than it is for forwards and midfielders since they tend to fly more under the radar with respect to name recognition. Some of the players have been very productive on a per 90’ basis, but if they haven’t played consistent UCL minutes, especially recently, they’re difficult to trust. For instance, as good as the stats for Alaba, he’s only come on as a sub in the past two UCL fixtures, so he’s probably best to avoid. And while I’d love to grab Jeremie Frimpong since he’s scored 5 Bundlesliga goals this season, his fantasy production has been minimal in UCL and the official portal has him listed merely as “In contention to start next game,” so I should pass.</p>
<p id="dY6651">I promised to prioritize Tuesday players in my back line, so I’m going with a minimum of three of them. Let’s start there. Marseille’s Jonathan Clauss has been decent but nothing special in UCL so far; however, what jumps off the page is his Ligue 1 production: 1 goal and 4 assists this season after netting 5 goals with 11 assists in 2021-22, which is not a surprise when you see that he’s actually listed in Transfermarkt as a midfielder. Hey, let’s take advantage of an out of position “defender” in UCL fantasy! Additionally, while I’m not exactly expecting a clean sheet at home against Tottenham per se, I don’t think that would shock anyone.</p>
<p id="LXQeky">Likewise, Sporting’s Pedro Porro has been good in UCL fantasy, but his 3 assists in 7 Liga Portugal appearances this season, along with 4 goals and 4 assists in 2021-22, really stand out. A home tilt against Frankfurt brings a fair chance of a clean sheet. He’s my second choice. </p>
<p id="2RKU9n">My third Tuesday addition comes from Spurs. For now I’m going with Ivan Perisic who has been Tottenham’s best defender on a per 90’ basis, and he offers the best goal/assist chances. If it looks like he’s unlikely to start as the deadline approaches, I can switch to a more reliable starter in Eric Dier. It would not surprise me for Marseille v. Tottenham to end up as a measured, low wattage affair; maybe one of the two sides will get a clean sheet so perhaps by selecting one player from each side I’m hedging my bets, although 1-1 or 2-1 wouldn’t be a shock either.</p>
<p id="c5Hc3l">I’m not overly high on the rest of the Tuesday field, so for my final two defenders I’m going with Wednesday. Sometimes that’s just how the cookie crumbles. For my fourth defender, I’m choosing between the two highest scoring defenders I’ve targeted, Benfica’s Alejandro Grimalso and Leipzig’s Mohamed Simakan, who are both on 35 points in UCL fantasy so far. They’re both away. The balls recovered stat is basically a wash. The deciding factor? Grimaldo tallied a whopping 20 points in the reverse (MD-1) tilt with Maccabi Haifa, whereas Simakan returned “only” 6 points (despite actually scoring a goal) as Leipzig conceded four scores to Shakhtar Donetsk in MD-1. Grimaldo gets the spot!</p>
<p id="EUHB3l">For my fifth and final defender, I’m zeroing in on defending champion Real Madrid at home to Celtic which has only scored twice in the first five games. Antonio Rudiger, who has been known to pop up with the occasional goal in attack, seems like a solid choice. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="RB Leipzig v Real Madrid: Group F - UEFA Champions League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4RKH8_YmLyzppGO0261Na9eb2EE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24149068/1436818768.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Marvin Ibo Guengoer - GES Sportfoto/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>FPL fans knew him from Chelsea, and now Antonio Rudiger remains a strong fantasy choice at Real Madrid.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="U5ABZG">~</p>
<p id="LsPiBV"><strong>KEEPERS</strong></p>
<p id="GbrQfE">Likewise as with defenders, I’m not limited to budget keepers as has been my approach so far. As usual, I need one who plays Tuesday and another who plays Wednesday. Unlike defenders who can score goals, assists and get extra for ball recoveries, keepers’ value derives almost exclusively from their ability to garner clean sheets, although keepers do get extra for saves (with a huge boost for saving penalties). </p>
<p id="DFt0ej">I’m starting with Porto’s Diogo Costa, who is #1 in scoring at the position by a wide margin with 45 points thanks largely to three straight games with penalty saves. It’s impossible to imagine he could keep that streak going, but the important thing is that he’s full of confidence, which will carry over. At home against an Atletico Madrid side which has only scored 4 goals so far, Costa is difficult to pass up. </p>
<p id="lg8Kaw">For my Wednesday keeper, I’ve already got three Real Madrid players, so I can’t go with Thibaut Courtois as much as I would want to. Given my team list, I think that leaves it between the backstops for AC Milan and Benfica. Both teams have conceded at roughly the same rate, and both sides’ opponents have scored at about the same clip. With Benfica traveling to Israel and AC Milan playing in Italy, I’m leaning toward AC Milan. I’d feel more comfortable about grabbing #1 Mike Maignan, but since he remains out injured I’ll roll the dice with his deputy Ciprian Tatarusanu who kept a clean sheet in MD-5 at Dinamo Zagreb.</p>
<p id="0lfYST">~</p>
<p id="o9nJcV">So, this is what my team looks like:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KLMw3iq1DW2XcEvMqeu0xEhlhPU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24150301/UCL_RMT_MD6_team_screen_grab.png">
<cite>Official UCL Fantasy Game</cite>
<figcaption>The author’s provisional MD-6 team</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="fZtCba">Pending any last minute changes as the deadling approaches, right now that leaves my team with the following breakdown:</p>
<ul>
<li id="xjke6j">
<em>By Day:</em> Seven players on Tuesday, eight on Wednesday</li>
<li id="qBitrc">
<em>By Team: </em> Real Madrid (3), Benfica (2), Porto (2), Sporting (2), Tottenham (2), Leipzig (1), Marseille (1), AC Milan (1) and PSG (1)</li>
<li id="kUReaK">
<em>By Combined UCL Production:</em> 407 points in 67 games (6.07 ppg)</li>
<li id="nekVb0">
<em>By Combined Cost: </em> €108.0m</li>
</ul>
<p id="mA41c0">~</p>
<p id="W8Kb4A"><strong>[</strong><em><strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong></em><strong> Prices and statistics used in this post came from the </strong><a href="https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uclfantasy/overview"><strong>official Champions League fantasy site</strong></a><strong> as well as from </strong><a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/"><strong>Transfermarkt</strong></a><strong>.]</strong> </p>
<p id="nBieOy">~</p>
<p id="sh20cj"><em>What do you think of my Limitless chip player choices for MD-6? Do I have the right approach looking at a restricted number of teams, or do you think I should widen the range to include more stars (or their back-ups)? What players do you view as absolutely essential? Take the poll below and share your thoughts and questions in the comments section!</em></p>
<p id="YHrTip">~</p>
<div id="ojY3Ww"><div data-anthem-component="poll:11591187"></div></div>
<p id="5VOShs"></p>
<p id="tP67M2"></p>
<p id="E0Mivj"></p>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/10/31/23426967/ucl-md-6-rate-my-team-limitless-chip-edition-group-stage-fantasy-strategy-benzema-mbappe-sonChris Manfredi2022-07-22T08:09:51-07:002022-07-22T08:09:51-07:0010 Questions for FPL 2022-23
<figure>
<img alt="Harry Kane celebrates with team-mate Son Heung-min - Tottenham Hotspur - Premier League" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NKNk-MLyuUZ9gRLxl8KZYpfryHE=/510x274:3192x2062/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71162566/1240681052.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Will the Kane and Son partnership be at the heart of fantasy success this season too? | Photo by Andrew Matthews/PA Images via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pressing queries that every FPL manager needs to ask and answer while assembling teams for the upcoming campaign.</p> <p id="C2cFH1">Wow, what an exciting season 2021-22 was! Here’s hoping the upcoming 2022-23 campaign can match the fun. Regardless, if you want to get off to a good start, it is absolutely imperative to take away as many lessons from last year as possible when cobbling together your new squad. Let’s get started, shall we?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="mcpO7U">
<h3 id="yCyk1n">1. Can Son and Kane keep up their offensive proficiency from the latter half of 2021-22?</h3>
<p id="qVtFz8">Following the late 2020-21 sacking of Jose Mourinho and the summer-2021 soap opera revolving around Harry Kane’s possible exit, the first half of 2021-22 was a disaster for <a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com">Tottenham</a> under Nuno Espirito Santo. It took time, but Antonio Conte righted Spurs’ ship following the brilliantly seamless January 2022 transfer additions of winger Dejan Kulusevski and midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur. Each led to amazing leaps in form from the team’s two main attacking forces, Kane and Son Heung-Min. From GW-24 (when Kulusevski and Bentancur first featured) through the end of the season (which encompassed 18 fixtures due to a flurry of double game weeks), Son increased his FPL ppg by over 50%, and Kane more than doubled his.</p>
<div id="6LkGZO"><div data-anthem-component="table:11269188"></div></div>
<p id="pxjPMh">Thanks to those latter-half season exploits, Son finished as the #2 overall earner in FPL for 2021-22, his 258 points just short of the 265 points tallied by <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/">Liverpool’s</a> Mo Salah. Nobody else was even close. Meanwhile, despite his sluggish start, Kane finished as the top FPL forward with 192 points. Fantasy managers who finished strong last season had at least one of the Spurs’ attacking stars, if not both.</p>
<p id="PFCjkb">But because of their fantastic finish, Son and Kane are quite pricey going into 2022-23. If you think they will continue their late 2021-22 form, then it’s worth splashing the cash on them. If you expect a return to earth, then you’re probably looking elsewhere for premium assets in your fantasy sides.</p>
<p id="JNSlX8">How can we expect them to perform in early 2022-23? Let’s take a look at the past five seasons. On a PPG basis, Son has increased his production at each step from 2017-18 to 2021-22, with incremental gains before a big uptick in 2021-22. Meanwhile, Kane actually has seen his delivery slide a bit at almost every step of the way, the only exception being what looks like an outlier in 2020-21 when the Tottenham talisman brilliantly won both the Golden Boot and assist title.</p>
<div id="N9v2UD"><div data-anthem-component="table:11269215"></div></div>
<p id="f2m1cw">Is it sensible to focus on the second half of last season, hoping that the strong finish with Conte, Bentancur and Kulusevski should carry over to their first full campaign with Son and Kane? Is it prudent to give more weight to the overall season-to-season trends of the past five years, or are those irrelevant since the likes of Nuno, Mourinho, Mauricio Pochettino, Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli are no longer around? Will the 2022 summer <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/6/8/23159639/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-tottenham-hotspur-ivan-perisic-transfer-antonio-conte-inter-milan-ucl">transfer addition of Ivan Perisic</a> followed by <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/4/23190691/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-tottenham-richarlison-brazil-everton-summer-fpl-fantrax">the grab of Richarlison</a> help or hinder the production of the two main Spurs’ stars?</p>
<p id="i6wnhH">Ultimately, given your answer, are you installing both Son and Kane, just one, or neither of them to kick off 2022-23 for your FPL team? </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="7p5kGX">
<h3 id="LHHc9k">2. Will Chelsea’s defense remain solid, or will it struggle without linchpin Antonio Rudiger?</h3>
<p id="Fclb5c">Chelsea’s recent fortunes under Thomas Tuchel have revolved around a rock solid defense, with star central defender Antonio Rudiger playing a vital role in that success,<em> a la</em> Ruben Dias for <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Man City</a> and Virgil van Dijk at Liverpool. </p>
<p id="zOQARC">Last season, there was a stark difference in the Blues’ defensive results when Rudiger was on the pitch compared to when he was out with injury. </p>
<div id="yqTktS"><div data-anthem-component="table:11269248"></div></div>
<p id="xHBvz8">Admittedly, four games is a small sample size, and the team actually kept two clean sheets without Rudiger (at Brentford and v. <a href="https://bracethehammer.sbnation.com/">West Ham</a>). However, the Blues also gave up one goal at anemic Norwich and shipped four to Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, leaving the goals-conceded average nearly half a goal per game higher without Rudiger as with him. One way to put it is that Chelsea conceded 4+ goals in a game only once in 34 games with Rudiger playing, and once in only four games with him sidelined.</p>
<p id="DszRNO">Small sample size or not, it is impossible to overstate the importance of Rudiger to the team’s recent defensive success. Now that Rudiger has departed London on a free transfer to <a href="https://www.managingmadrid.com">Real Madrid</a> along with the exit of Andreas Christensen to Barcelona, is the summer transfer addition of Kalidou Koulibaly from Napoli enough to convince you that Chelsea’s back line will remain stout? Or will you avoid popular Blues’ wing defenders such as Ben Chilwell and Reese James along with keeper Édouard Mendy in fantasy, expecting a rise in goals conceded and thus a decline in clean sheets?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="yhcHMs">
<h3 id="kBT2cA">3. Will <a href="https://cominghomenewcastle.sbnation.com">Newcastle</a> make a big leap in 2022-23 and challenge for a European spot following the huge influx of money from its new Saudi Arabian owners?</h3>
<p id="FDzTuc">For the first half of last season, Newcastle was stuck in a serious relegation scrap. With the help of January 2022 additions Bruno Guimaraes, Chris Wood, Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn and Matt Targett following the October 2021 club sale, the Magpies enjoyed a second half rennaisance, surging to 11th place. This summer, the Magpies have made further transfer grabs to bolster the side <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/16/23202779/transfer-spotlight-newcastles-sven-botman">in the form of central defender Sven Botman</a> along with <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/9/23196537/epl-transfer-spotlight-newcastles-nick-pope">keeper Nick Pope</a>.</p>
<p id="JGK9Fu">Let’s look at the somewhat recent history of two other big oil money takeovers of EPL teams:</p>
<ul>
<li id="NiphnR">Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in the summer of 2003. The Blues won their first EPL title ever in 2004-05. The success didn’t stop there, as Chelsea has now won five out of the past 18 EPL crowns.</li>
<li id="LteXxW">An Abu Dhabi group headed by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan bought <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Man City</a> in the summer of 2008. The Sky Blues won their first EPL title ever in 2011-12. The success didn’t stop there, as Man City has now won six of the past eleven EPL crowns.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Burnley v Newcastle United - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mBKbY84sVG_VmKdYhMcloggq_Wc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23845067/1240869136.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mark Fletcher/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Just how excited should Newcastle fans and fantasy managers be about the team’s money and ambition?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="UyLNoA">Should we expect the same pattern to happen now with Newcastle, suddenly and amazingly THE RICHEST CLUB IN THE WORLD? Will Newcastle win their first EPL crown in the next two or three or five seasons and become a regular heavyweight? Is a top seven — or perhaps even top four — finish a reasonable expectation for 2022-23, or is that too soon? Is the “Big Six” now the “Big Seven?” Are you targeting Newcastle players for your fantasy teams? </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="3UP6HZ">
<h3 id="yPijgL">4. Can a team among <a href="https://7500toholte.sbnation.com">Aston Villa</a>, Brighton, Crystal Palace, <a href="https://fosseposse.sbnation.com">Leicester</a>, West Ham or Wolves separate itself from the pack in the challenge for Europe?</h3>
<p id="awzkEn">Depending on how you answered Question #3, Newcastle United may (or may not) be able to mount a challenge for a European spot in 2022-23. Question #4 is essentially asking, just how crowded is that challenge going to be? Because if one (or two) team(s) can separate itself from the pack, you may be able to find fantasy joy targeting their stars. If instead it ends up a muddle, it may be more of a mix and match (or avoid altogether) situation in fantasy.</p>
<p id="SZBZW1">Leicester City, West Ham and Brighton have enjoyed strong leadership the past few seasons from Brendan Rodgers, David Moyes and Graham Potter, respectively. Meanwhile, Wolves and Crystal Palace saw successful first seasons under Bruno Lage and Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira, respectively, while Aston Villa had a solid run following the November 2021 welcome of Liverpool great Steven Gerrard.</p>
<p id="ENDBfX">Let’s look at the teams’ basic table stats over the past two campaigns:</p>
<div id="x01Uw5"><div data-anthem-component="table:11286319"></div></div>
<p id="SoIDsc">There are positive takeaways for each team:</p>
<ul>
<li id="V53jnd">West Ham have scored 60+ goals along with at least a +5 goal differential in each of the past two seasons, joining only Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham for that distinction. </li>
<li id="5K5tIb">Leicester City have ranked in the top five in goals scored in each of the past two seasons, joining only Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham for that distinction. </li>
<li id="zQHi1l">Brighton have conceded fewer than 50 goals each of the past two seasons, joining only Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal in that distinction.</li>
<li id="8NnpoQ">Crystal Palace may have only taken the 12th spot in the table, but on goal differential alone Palace were actually the 7th best team in the EPL in 2021-22 under Vieira. (The culprit: 15 draws, tying — naturally — for the most in the league.)</li>
<li id="KUl0Zy">Wolves conceded the fifth-fewest goals in the league in 2021-22 under Lage. </li>
<li id="PMQFCd">Aston Villa had suffered defeat in seven of their first 11 league games (64%) with a total of just 10 points (0.91 ppg) when Dean Smith was sacked. After Gerrard took over, the Villans lost only 12 of the remaining 27 fixtures (44%), producing 35 points (1.30 ppg). </li>
</ul>
<p id="Nn99W0">Of course, there are always negative takeaways as well, should you instead choose to focus on those. Among the mid-tier half-dozen I’ve highlighted (West Ham, Leicester, Brighton, Crystal Palace, Wolves and Aston Villa), do one or two teams stand out as likely to perform well in 2021-22? Which of their players are you high on from a fantasy standpoint?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="S6UoOE">
<h3 id="UM752A">5. Can Bruno Fernandes reclaim his spot as an elite fantasy asset, or are his days of wine and roses over?</h3>
<p id="bO2Haf">Bruno Fernandes took the league by storm in midseason 2019-20 before becoming a full-fledged superstar in 2020-21. After the arrival of Portugal compatriot Cristiano Ronaldo in 2021-22, however, Bruno’s production fell off a cliff. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="FBL-ENG-PR-CRYSTAL PALACE-MAN UTD" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Xc3ICJU6lhdygnuQJwF5NjyXnL4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23668499/1240836589.jpg">
<cite>Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Should FPL managers talk themselves into believing that last season was merely a bad dream for Bruno Fernandes?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Wpyscs">The primary factor in Bruno’s plunge was the extreme reduction in penalty kick opportunities and goals. It wasn’t just that the Red Devils drew fewer penalty kick attempts (only five in 2021-22) than they had been accustomed to earning in recent years (11+ each season from 2018-19 through 2020-21), but on top of that Ronaldo took over the #1 PK designation from Bruno and killed his “Penandes” nickname in the process.</p>
<div id="tV63iM"><div data-anthem-component="table:11269370"></div></div>
<p id="tHu81u">However, following last campaign’s debacle, there are three factors which make Fernandes potentially attractive for the upcoming season. First, there is hope for a <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Manchester United</a> turnaround under new manager Erik ten Hag whose Ajax teams have not only been strong overall, but have scored prolifically. Second, the FPL portal gave Fernandes a big price drop from £12.0m to start last season down to £10.0m this time around. Third and seemingly most important, Ronaldo has lodged a request to transfer to a team featuring in <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a>, and the exit of CR7 — should it happen — would presumably reinstall Bruno as the #1 pen taker. </p>
<p id="pnBEei">However, United reportedly want to hold onto Ronaldo, although that may merely be spin covering for an inability to find a team CR7 wants to go to that is willing to pay his wages. Another a potential problem <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/15/23215266/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-manu-christian-eriksen">comes with the arrival of Christian Eriksen</a>, as both stars are used to staking a singular claim on the #10 playmaker role which could lead to more malaise from Bruno should that designation be shared between the pair or outright given to the Dane. On the other hand, that could be an advantage, if Eriksen’s arrival is able to free up Bruno to get forward more and possibly pad his scoring stats.</p>
<p id="lO4u3P">Is another disappointing campaign in store for Bruno, or do you see 2021-22 as an outlier and expect the attacking midfielder to regain his swashbuckling form? </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="6bb8ap">
<h3 id="rVkP2G">6. Will any young Arsenal attacker(s) make another leap in 2022-23?</h3>
<p id="LUfxnG">After sustained success over a very long period under Arsene Wenger, Arsenal hit tough times in recent seasons, with the low point being an 8th place finish in 2019-20. Since then, the Gunners seem to be on an upswing, going from 56 points in the aforementioned 2019-20 campaign up to 61 points in 2020-21 and 69 points in 2021-22. Just missing out on a <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a> spot was disappointing to the North London faithful, but the season can be viewed as a success in terms of Mikel Arteta’s youth movement which hopes to herald greater things to come in 2022-23 and beyond. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Arsenal v Everton - Pre-Season friendly" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6695hjRp2Dnuov0mZGed5ZnAQ8A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23891234/1409218458.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Bukayo Saka had a breakout season with Arsenal in 2021-22. Might he be even better in 2022-23?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="NLJ44O">Veteran Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang transferred out in January 2022, and late in the season fellow old pro Alexandre Lacazette saw his playing time diminished. Interestingly, youngster Nicolas Pepe also saw his minutes reduced sharply. While the trio’s combined assist tally actually increased, the goal production fell off precipitously from 33 to 9. </p>
<div id="wwEyWl"><div data-anthem-component="table:11286253"></div></div>
<p id="Lkzco1">While Pepe missed out on the fun, otherwise a slew of young attackers were given increased minutes, which led to plenty of production rises for Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli and Eddie Nketiah. Boosting from 11 up to 39 goals together, the quintet more than made up for the aforementioned trio’s decline in scoring.</p>
<div id="K83j8u"><div data-anthem-component="table:11286258"></div></div>
<p id="1dGRxm">Lacazette transferred out over the summer, but the additions of <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/10/23201199/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-arsenal-gabriel-jesus">forward Gabriel Jesus from Manchester City</a> and <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/6/24/23178644/nma-fpl-fantrax-epl-transfer-spotlight-arsenal-fabio-vieira-fantasy">midfielder Fábio Vieira from Porto</a> have made the attacking end more crowded on balance. Are you targeting any Gunners’ attacker(s) to keep improving and serve as a worthwhile fantasy investment(s), or is the Arsenal situation merely one to be avoided now?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="BF1rL1">
<h3 id="PDDIni">7. With Marco Bielsa gone, is it necessary to avoid <a href="https://throughitalltogether.sbnation.com">Leeds United</a> attacking options, or are any still viable? Are defensive assets more attractive now under Jessie Marsch?</h3>
<p id="xzfDc7">Marco Bielsa famously (or perhaps infamously) implemented a manic, up-tempo style which led to on-pitch success and fantasy joy in 2020-21 from a number of Leeds United players along with the devotion of local and worldwide football fans alike. Unfortunately, it soon felt like a mirage, with a series of drubbings leading to the late February sacking of Bielsa. Somehow, newly installed American manager Jesse “Please Stop Calling Me Ted Lasso” Marsch managed to escape the relegation scrap.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Leeds United v Leicester City - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qVZzvXcyReOAPpMkT1fjHYyPt0Y=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23674474/1236412239.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt - AMA/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>What a difference a year makes.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="ltHuyi">For fantasy managers who had invested in Leeds attacking options in 2021-22, it was especially painful as their production plummeted while the team struggled with fitness and an existential battle between identity and form. Patrick Bamford’s injury-riddled season was one to forget, while Jack Harrison’s assists dried up as his output fell off sharply. Raphinha’s assists also dried up, but the Brazilian took over primary goal scoring responsibility (including from the penalty spot) and actually improved his overall FPL production, although it slipped slightly on a per game basis. </p>
<div id="fIDqVQ"><div data-anthem-component="table:11286276"></div></div>
<p id="m9nO4f">It may seem logical that defensive options should be more attractive in the upcoming season under the pragmatic style of Jesse Marsch compared to the wide open approach of Bielsa. However, it was not just on the offensive end that there was a sharp drop-off last campaign. It was easy to forget, but the defensive side of the ball actually also brought plenty of fantasy joy in 2020-21 before crashing in 2021-22. For Stuart Dallas, part of the problem was being re-categorized as a midfielder rather than a defender, while the team’s drop-off from 12 to 5 clean sheets was a major culprit in the tanking fortunes of defender Luke Ayling and keeper Ilan Meslier.</p>
<div id="fyWVr6"><div data-anthem-component="table:11286279"></div></div>
<p id="jRX9vU">Leeds clearly had a horrible season overall from a defensive perspective. But the key looking forward to 2022-23 may be in how the team performed last season under Marsch compared to Bielsa. While neither managers did anywhere close to as well in 2021-22 on a points per game basis or in attack than the team fared under Bielsa in 2020-21, Marsch was impressively able to implement a defense that was nearly as effective in his dozen games, conceding only 1.50 gpg late in 2021-22 compared to Bielsa’s 1.42 gpg average in 2020-21 which had crashed to a putrid 2.35 gpg in the 26 games of 2021-22 preceding Bielsa’s sacking. </p>
<div id="osbV5Z"><div data-anthem-component="table:11289068"></div></div>
<p id="PME7j2">Do you see that defensive improvement carrying over to next season as well, particularly with the additions of right back Rasmus Kristensen along with defensive midfielders Tyler Adams and Marc Roca? Given a first full campaign, and hopefully with a healthier Patrick Bamford et al. on top of <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/6/11/23160529/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-leeds-brenden-aaronson">the addition of Brenden Aaronson</a> as well as <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/15/23215145/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-leedsunited-luis-sinisterra-feyenoord">incoming winger Luis Sinisterra</a>, can Marsch also implement an attack that is anywhere close to as exciting as it was under Bielsea also? Or with Bielsa out and Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha having left for Manchester City and Barcelona, respectively, is the Leeds magic entirely gone for you?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="zQ4Kpu">
<h3 id="IjivTg">8. Which team(s) are most likely to suffer a severe decline?</h3>
<p id="2TvmdR">It wasn’t just Leeds that fell off a cliff from 2021-21 to 2021-22 (plunging from 9th to 17th in the table). They were joined by <a href="https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com">Everton</a> (falling from 10th to 16th), rendering most of both teams’ players worthless from a fantasy standpoint. </p>
<p id="pZYzXn">Was that an unusual situation? Well, a year prior, from 2020-21 to 2021-22, Burnley fell from 10th down to 17th and Sheffield United plunged from 9th to 18th, as the Blades were unceremoniously dumped from the league.</p>
<p id="4pY4Sx">And two years ago, from 2019-20 to 2020-21, Watford dropped from 11th place down to 19th place, saying goodbye to the EPL and hello to the Championship. </p>
<p id="AyI3Oa">Clearly, the Leeds and Everton collapses were not anomalies, but rather fairly normal occurrences. Which team(s) show worrisome signs — whether a poor finish to last campaign, a lackluster summer of transfer activity or injury to key player(s) — that they are likely to be this upcoming season’s standout example of drop-off, influencing you to avoid targeting their players in fantasy?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="P9CrUy">
<h3 id="qtJJ2k">9. Do any of the newly promoted team(s) catch your eye?</h3>
<p id="l2jksr">Part of the fun of playing FPL is trying to identify the newly promoted team(s) and players from those sides who will actually make an impact. Of course, it’s usually not as easy as it seems it should be, and last season was a shining example thereof. Take a look at this simple chart:</p>
<div id="cXQcUs"><div data-anthem-component="table:11316590"></div></div>
<p id="YPF8qb">When selecting your fantasy team to start 2021-22, it may have made sense to invest in Norwich City and/or Watford, the Championship’s top two teams from 2020-21 which also had a recent track record (not necessarily a great track record, but a track record nonetheless) in the Premiership. </p>
<p id="509dgX">As it turned out, however, it was Brentford, the third place Championship team that hadn’t sniffed the EPL since shortly after World War II, which brilliantly turned in a 13th place league finish and translated that into FPL gold with five players returning 100+ points: forward Ivan Toney (139 points), defender Pontus Jansson (122 pts), midfielder Bryan Mbuemo (119 pts), defender Rico Henry (108 pts) and midfielder Christian Norgaard (101 pts). Meanwhile, the only Norwich player to crack the century mark was forward Teemu Pukki (142 pts), and Watford’s only representative was striker Emmanuel Dennis (139 pts). </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Brentford v Aston Villa - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/W8ceRLs-KACnoV2odc2KoZIP9II=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23668512/1362380543.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Brentford’s success under Thomas Frank was a surprise for many last season. Will another newly promoted team turn the trick again?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="egjDcr">Do you have an eye on players from any of the newly promoted sides among Fulham, Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest, or are you staying away due to uncertainty? Do you think we may be in for another surprise, or should last season’s Championship form hold when handicapping the trio of teams as they take a jump up this upcoming campaign?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="zP3TcQ">
<h3 id="36VPVi">10. Is it necessary to plan for a World Cup impact?</h3>
<p id="6NobEL">It is crazy enough that, according to recent reports, the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 is expected to be a no fun zone for fans in attendance: no publicly revealing attire, no public drunkenness, no sex between LGBTQ or unmarried heterosexual participants (even privately in their own hotel rooms). It’s as if the hosts in Doha are waving their arms and yelling, “Please don’t come! Save your money and have a much better time watching at home!”</p>
<p id="DshmfK">Beyond the hyper-restrictive cultural regulations or the simple fact that Qatar had never before qualified for the prestigious tournament, the antithetical nature of this year’s World Cup hits at a more fundamental level. The way the definitely-not-corrupt bid was initially sold to the public was that, despite the hot as Hades summer weather conditions in Qatar, the event would be held in the standard season, just as it always had been, since the home nation would quickly and easily construct a vast array of air conditioned domed stadia, and there was no need to be concerned that visiting fans would be uncomfortable in the uncooled surroundings aside from those bubbles. And if you believed that premise even for a millisecond, I’ve got a beautiful bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. (Non-crypto currency accepted.) </p>
<p id="MNs9FY">In a shock necessitating a cosmic supply of fainting couches and smelling salts, well after the Qatar bid won out, eventually the announcement was made that the World Cup will actually, for the first time ever, not take place in the summer when domestic leagues around the globe are on break. Instead, the tournament will be held from November 21 through December 18. To accommodate the unusual timing of the competition, the EPL will shut down following GW16 which finishes November 13 and resume for GW17 starting December 26 (a.k.a. Boxing Day).</p>
<p id="9R8vf8">In previous summer World Cups, it was customary for exhausted players whose national teams progressed to the latter rounds (semifinals/third place game/final) to take the opening EPL game week, or even the first two fixtures, off. If that happens this time around, now we might see those World Cup players rested for GW17 and perhaps GW18 as well. But on top of that, it is not outside the realm of possibility for the other end to be impacted as well. Might we also see players whose national teams are scheduled for early starts in Qatar miss GW16, the final league fixture before the international tourney? Or will that not be an issue since the players already rested over the summer and won’t need extra time off?</p>
<p id="7lWnFR">With this in mind, is there an advantage to focusing on stars whose national teams will be missing the World Cup entirely (for instance, when looking at Liverpool, prioritizing Scotland wing defender Andrew Robertson over England counterpart Trent Alexander-Arnold)? Or just making sure to avoid EPL players whose national sides either have early starts in Qatar, or are from one of the big favorites who would be expected to go deep in the tournament? </p>
<p id="e1n6cp">Regarding <a href="https://www.premierleague.com/news/2667633">FPL’s announcement of unlimited transfers ahead of the GW17 restart</a>, fantasy managers each get an extra first half wildcard chip. Thus, there may be no need to worry about World Cup considerations when you set up your team to start the season. But if you are planning for a World Cup impact, will you merely take those considerations into account when you use your extra wildcard? </p>
<p id="z2oKGo">Of course, I should add that, had the World Cup instead been held this summer in Europe where there have been sweltering temperatures along with swaths of wildfires, there may well have been difficulties hosting the tournament there. The United States (co-hosting in 2026) is experiencing its own problems with rising heat and more fires. The World Cup now simply may not be able to continue in the summer season, regardless of the locale. Qatar might merely represent an earlier than expected change in that regard. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="xCzeWJ">
<h3 id="AyHmou"><em>*11. Bonus Question: Is Erling Haaland a must-have, or should you avoid him?</em></h3>
<p id="1AfVNR">I originally planned on including this in the list of 10 questions, and I actually think it is the single most important query that needs to be answered by fantasy managers when plotting out their course for the season. However, the more I delved into Haaland’s prospects for the upcoming campaign at his new Manchester City home, the clearer it became that the issue deserved its own standalone deep dive. Be sure to read <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/21/23174018/why-erling-haaland-will-probably-be-a-bust-in-2022-23-fpl-manchester-city-transfer-fantasy-flop-dud">my post to glean my thoughts on the topic of whether you should add or avoid Haaland</a> in 2022-23.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="urr3KZ">
<p id="QvH6tv"><em>[SOURCE NOTE: EPL statistics, fantasy scoring and other info came from the </em><a href="https://www.premierleague.com/stats"><em>official Premier League website</em></a><em>, the </em><a href="https://fantasy.premierleague.com/"><em>official fantasy Premier League website</em></a><em> or </em><a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us"><em>transfermarkt</em></a><em>.]</em></p>
<p id="yrIDjd">~</p>
<p id="PXO41l"><em>How do you answer the above questions, and how do your answers impact your fantasy decisions ahead of the upcoming EPL season? What other queries do you think need pondering? Be sure to share your thoughts in the comments section below!</em></p>
<p id="UU8wuA">~</p>
<p id="S9H9Tp"></p>
https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/22/23146991/nma-10-questions-fpl-2022-23-strategy-kane-son-tottenham-bruno-arsenal-leeds-worldcup22Chris Manfredi2022-07-21T10:13:27-07:002022-07-21T10:13:27-07:00Why Erling Haaland Will Probably Be A Bust In 2022-23
<figure>
<img alt="Norwegian Royals Play A Friendly Football Match At Skaugum Arena" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QuwmC9bTnfLVgkdRnEDBN6TVRHE=/0x106:2774x1955/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71159425/1402723427.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Haaland and Manchester City fans are overjoyed with his transfer. Fantasy managers may not end up smiling, though. | Photo by Rune Hellestad-Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Everybody is rushing to add the exciting Manchester City newbie to their fantasy teams. Here is why avoiding the young star will likely turn out to be the wiser move.</p> <p id="mICH4S">As children, we all dutifully learned the dangers of peer pressure. No matter how many other people are popping pills, sniffing powder or shooting smack, stay away from drugs. Don’t drink and drive. And don’t ever, ever think about wearing a denim jacket with blue jeans (a.k.a. the Canadian tuxedo) or a denim shirt with dungarees (the Jay Leno). [Editor’s note: Now you tell me...]</p>
<p id="vyw31d">This summer’s bright and shiny new toy whom fantasy managers are rushing to add to their FPL teams is Erling Haaland. A summer transfer by <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Man City</a> for well under market value, Haaland already has an FPL selection rate of<strong> </strong>61%, making him the second-most popular player in the game behind <a href="https://theshortfuse.sbnation.com">Arsenal</a> newcomer Gabriel Jesus, the player Haaland is replacing at City.</p>
<p id="hD63ej">The superlatives seem never ending. Haaland is young but well seasoned. He’s big and strong, with no shortage of speed to boot. He is a fantastic finisher, including from the penalty spot, while also being full of assists as a team player. The Norwegian has scored at every level he’s played at for club (including in <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a>) and country. He will be coached by one of the best managers in the world, Pep Guardiola, while surrounded by the most lethal attack force in the Premier League, overflowing with star talent at every position.</p>
<p id="QiSFZu">Even so, there is a mountain of evidence that Haaland will likely prove to be fool’s gold for fantasy managers in 2022-23. Just because everybody else is rushing to commit <em>hara-kiri </em>to their FPL teams does not mean that you should, too.</p>
<p id="eaj8i1">Please, do yourself a favor and avoid the Haaland-related peer pressure. Why? Let’s take a long look at the (many, many) reasons the young star is probably going to be a bust in his first season with the Citizens.</p>
<p id="0YXFSA">I’m going to break this into two main sections: Playing time concerns, and performance concerns. Naturally, there is plenty of overlap between the two, so I will do my best to separate them as possible. Let’s start with the former.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="5eosbb">
<h3 id="UWznWv">1. PLAYING TIME CONCERNS</h3>
<p id="U6ulbk">It is difficult for a player to make a big impact if he doesn’t play as much as he could, particularly from a fantasy standpoint. If you’re paying a lot of money for a player, you don’t want too many one-point outings from late cameos, nor do you want zeroes from cheap players you purposely picked to warm your bench.</p>
<p id="LsKPet">~</p>
<h3 id="hnUpfx">A. The Dilution from “Pep Roulette”</h3>
<p id="6NVImw">Let’s start by looking at last season’s two best teams. <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a> and <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/">Liverpool</a> were heads above the rest of the league not only in the table but in their attacks. The Sky Blues scored 99 goals, Liverpool 94. <a href="https://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com">Chelsea</a> was next at just 76. Yet Liverpool’s offense produced far more fantasy joy at the top end, with three players returning 175+ points each as opposed to only one such for City.</p>
<p id="HDdu4g">Why? Pep Roulette — distributed minutes, of course! Not surprisingly, the 175+ point players were the attackers who were afforded ~2,200+ minutes:</p>
<div id="dHW957"><div data-anthem-component="table:11300955"></div></div>
<p id="V0pwRh"><em>(NOTE: Min. 750 minutes, excl. def. midfielders Fabinho, Fernandinho & Rodri)</em></p>
<p id="PWS369">The Sky Blues produced more FPL points together from their attackers than Liverpool, despite having two fewer players at the 750’ minimum. And Manchester City produced seven players with 100+ points compared to only four for Liverpool. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Real Madrid v Manchester City - UEFA Champions League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/75Qpb0wXk-2fMZMDdv7xnDCDVJs=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23669171/1240533326.jpg">
<cite>Photo by David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>How many Man City attackers played at least 2,200 EPL minutes last season? The answer is shown in the attached photo.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="669rga">But what good is that for us when fantasy managers can have only three players maximum from a single team, especially with Man City and Liverpool defenders/keepers also serving as attractive options? </p>
<p id="oYmPIN">You tell me who was happier, managers who went with Diogo Jota (175 points) or those who grabbed Riyad Mahrez (135 pts), especially given that Jota finished the season cheaper than Mahrez in the mid-priced midfield category? Likewise, were you better off paying premium for Salah (265 pts) or KDB (196 pts)? And of course, at a price point in between those two tiers, would you rather have had Mane (183 pts) or Sterling (163 pts)? I think we know the answers all point in favor of Jurgen Klopp’s stars who weren’t subject to Pep Roulette.</p>
<p id="p0kVOj">~</p>
<p id="NsJBQQ"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: Largely due to Pep Roulette, just one City attacker was afforded 2,200+ minutes in the league last season. Correspondingly, despite scoring a league-high 99 goals, Manchester City managed only one attacker who scored 175+ points in FPL and none could crack 200. Failing to feature regularly enough, even the team’s biggest stars simply can’t reliably return FPL value with respect to full season scoring.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="8k23Sd">
<h3 id="xt0Z21">B. Limited Playing Time for First Year Attackers under Pep Guardiola</h3>
<p id="rFOJmO">If you thought the impact of Pep Roulette in 2021-22 was bad enough, just wait, it gets worse when widening the historical scope. Let’s look at playing time for the team’s impressive roster of 2021-22 attacking stars, not last season, but back further when they featured in their first full campaign with the team under Pep (or in the case of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling, under then-manager Manuel Pellegrini). Of course, we don’t need to look back any more than 2021-22 for Jack Grealish.</p>
<div id="07M0kw"><div data-anthem-component="table:11301001"></div></div>
<p id="lXOQPk">I think I hear something. Oh, that’s just the sound of FPL managers across the world who are expecting big things from Haaland now collectively throwing up in their mouths. </p>
<p id="lt49ko">The 2021-22 crop of Manchester City superstar attackers, back when they first played a full season under Guardiola or Pellegrini, averaged fewer than 1,600 minutes and barely cracked 100 points in FPL. While many performed very well on a points per 90’ basis, nobody played enough minutes to make a satisfying FPL return overall for the season. The high in minutes was 2,002’ and the FPL scoring best was 131 points, both Kevin De Bruyne in 2015-16. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Manchester City v Fulham FC - FA Cup Fourth Round" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4Kzk2UK_wEm-dJre9acctUHnk1g=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23756647/1202098425.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Matt McNulty - Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>All of these 2021-22 Man City stars struggled to get regular playing time at first under Guardiola.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="X53Gr2">Yes, current worldwide superstar Kevin De Bruyne, whom many consider the best player in the EPL, was an exceedingly mediocre fantasy performer in his first season at City, and that was after coming over for $83.6m from VfL Wolfsburg in 2015-16 at the age of 24. </p>
<p id="XOYanM">That means that KDB was actually older at the time, and cost more than Haaland (who is also coming over from the Bundesliga). Likewise, the average original incoming age and transfer price for last season’s collective crop of Man City offensive stars is actually a bit older and dearer, respectively, than they are for Haaland. It’s not like we’re talking about a slew of unpolished 18 year olds who were speculative buys. </p>
<p id="REgSnB">Some of you may be looking at the above chart and asking, <em>What about Leroy Sane?</em> <em>Maybe he wasn’t still around in 2021-22, but don’t forget about him, he was great! </em>Indeed, we should also recall Sane, a wonderfully talented player who turned out to be a successful transfer after coming over from Bundesliga<em> </em>side Schalke 04 in the summer of 2016. However, just like the stars shown above, success was not immediate, as Sane only played 1,781’ in the EPL in 2016-17. </p>
<p id="3TTwpb">~</p>
<p id="g0f8kT"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: The 2021-22 City team was stacked with well-polished attacking talent. But back in their first full seasons with Pep, each and every one would have been considered an FPL bust, struggling for regular playing time and correspondingly failing to produce at anywhere close to an elite level. Guardiola does not hand the keys over to newcomers right away. Rather, becoming a regular is a gradual process.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="VZKjAt">
<h3 id="ovWHna">C. Pep’s Affinity for the “False 9” Formation</h3>
<p id="9OLjdp">When the Sky Blues shipped out Ferran Torres and chose Jack Grealish over Harry Kane for their big summer 2021 attacking transfer acquisition — perhaps with an eye toward grabbing Haaland in the summer of 2022 — Guardiola was committed to having only one true forward for the 2021-22 season, Gabriel Jesus.</p>
<p id="XL0pcS">Jesus never turned into a superstar following Sergio Aguero’s departure as some may have hoped, but the Brazilian was a very solid player at the striker position in his time at City, contributing 58 goals plus 29 assists in 159 games. While Jesus featured in 28 of the 38 league games (74%) in 2021-22, he started just 21 times (55%). In other words, Guardiola amazingly did not start a forward in nearly half (45%) of the team’s EPL fixtures last season.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Real Madrid v Manchester City - UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Y1CPFKJ1ajiRZF2ei3gGTrNfoJ4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23669135/1209103425.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mateo Villalba/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Pep Guardiola has taken an increasingly distant relationship with forwards in recent seasons.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="C3NUu2">Man City scored the most goals (99) in the league while conceding the joint fewest (26, tied with Liverpool). Not surprisingly, fantasy managers could find plenty of joy at keeper (Ederson), defender (João Cancelo) and midfielder (Kevin De Bruyne), as each of those three players ranked between #2 and #4 in FPL at their respective positions. However, the forward position was a fantasy wasteland for City; playing only 1,871 minutes and scoring a meager tally of 120 FPL points, Jesus ranked way back at #10 among strikers for the entire campaign.</p>
<div id="O4dr7M"><div data-anthem-component="table:11317108"></div></div>
<p id="lcOmEh">A part of Jesus’ lack of playing time was due to injury, but much of it was due to Guardiola’s love of the false 9 formation. The brilliant manager simply seems to relish — fairly frequently — playing without a striker, instead throwing an extra midfielder on the field in an advanced role to confuse the defense or take advantage of a perceived match-up advantage. And with Man City having captured the league title yet again last season, there is no reason for Guardiola to doubt the effectiveness of the strategy.</p>
<p id="7vOfqk">~</p>
<p id="44rWqE"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: If Haaland is healthy all season, we can surely expect Guardiola to start him more often than he started Jesus last season. However, due to Pep’s propensity to adopt an XI featuring a false 9, it may be to be too much to ask for Haaland to get on the pitch as a truly regular starter in the way that superstar strikers elsewhere around the league are utilized by their managers. </em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="a7ailD">
<h3 id="aa05Ye">D. Haaland’s Injury Risk</h3>
<p id="TKlb5X">As you can see from the trio of reasons above, I’m already worried enough about playing time for Haaland in his first year at City. Now we’re adding in Haaland’s injury history on top of that? (Yikes!)</p>
<p id="yqfvWo">Haaland has missed a fair amount of time from injury during his spell with <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com">Borussia Dortmund</a>. The positive spin is that he’s still scored a boatload of goals despite the limited playing time, but we’ll get to his prolific attacking production later. For now, let’s focus on what we should fairly expect in terms of availability (or lack thereof) due to injury. </p>
<p id="W73i9t">The Bundesliga schedule is limited to 34 games, whereas the EPL has 38 fixtures, so the table below contains an extrapolation of Haaland’s Bundesliga time to a full EPL season. For simplicity’s sake, I am only looking at 2020-21 and 2021-22, since 2019-20 was when he came over from Red Bull Salzburg to Borussia Dortmund as a winter transfer. </p>
<p id="iJRku2">In the past two Bundlesliga campaigns, Haaland has featured in 52 of a possible 68 games and played 4,325 out of a maximum 6,120 minutes, which prorated is an EPL average of 29 games and 2,417’ per season.</p>
<div id="JScfu2"><div data-anthem-component="table:11301115"></div></div>
<p id="sXGyXS">2,417’ isn’t terrible, but it isn’t anything to get excited about either. How important is playing time? Only three FPL attackers scored 200+ points last season, and each played over 2,750 minutes: Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (265 points in 2,758’), <a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com">Tottenham</a>’s Son Heung-Min (258 points in 3,009’) and <a href="https://bracethehammer.sbnation.com/">West Ham</a>’s Jarrod Bowen (206 points in 2,987’). </p>
<p id="PP5TE8">But those were midfielders. What about forwards? Well, a comparison of the top two strikers in FPL perfectly illustrates the difference that playing time can make:</p>
<ul>
<li id="bMRCt4">The #1 forward, Spurs’ Harry Kane, played a robust 3,231’ and racked up 192 points.</li>
<li id="0WLrQy">The #2 forward, Man United’s Cristiano Ronaldo, was limited to 2,454’ and managed just 159 points.</li>
</ul>
<p id="yvdlIb">~</p>
<p id="gv1EKJ"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: Given Haaland’s recent injury history, about the best case scenario for 2021-22 playing time may be something along the lines of 31 games and 2,700 minutes, which isn’t bad. But would you be happy if he played just 27 games and gave you only 2,150 minutes, which is just as strong of a possibility? No, not at his price. And that’s without including the other factors mentioned earlier in section 1, so the playing time projections in this section may prove overly optimistic anyway. </em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="6eP1y9">
<h3 id="DPN0sZ">E. The EPL’s Change from Three to Five Subs per Game</h3>
<p id="ME3bAO">Recently the International Football Association Board made the allowance of five substitutions a universal rule of the game. Most of the rest of the European footballing world had already moved to five subs from three, but the Premier League stubbornly held out. Now that option has been taken out of their hands. </p>
<p id="UqwuKC">Purists and fans of the smaller sides will understandably cry foul. But given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the upcoming World Cup which takes place during the season rather than in the summer, and the general strain on players who play a plethora of cup competitions on top of their domestic league and national team obligations, many will view this as a positive development. </p>
<p id="tnzaHa">Overall, the addition of two subs should help the bigger teams (which tend to be blessed with depth) and hurt the smaller squads (which are not). Manchester City are obviously one of those major sides. However, what is beneficial for a team writ large may be the opposite for that side’s stars in fantasy.</p>
<p id="7DpODN">A potential problem for City players regarding fantasy value is that starts and minutes could be rationed further (if that is even possible, given Pep roulette). In a five sub world, a player like Haaland may end up with fewer starts than he would have received in a three sub sphere, or have the same number of starts but tend to be pulled earlier in the game for rest.</p>
<p id="9CMIK0">On the flip side, though, the change could prove to be a net positive by allowing for more starts for the players whom Pep views to be the most essential. Or it could merely balance out, should Haaland earn more starts but be taken out earlier in those instances.</p>
<p id="xTy5Rn">~</p>
<p id="B51vKy"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: As far as the red flags for reduced playing time in this section, the change increasing the number of subs allowed is the least of my concerns. Unlike the other scenarios, there is also a chance of being a positive, or it could simply be a wash. It is absolutely a potential worry, but it’s difficult to predict how this one will play out.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="KD0wcE">
<h3 id="WO5Kb2">2. PERFORMANCE CONCERNS</h3>
<p id="xRLPNx">Let’s move on from playing time to performance concerns. While Haaland is a magnificent talent, we should not let his vast skills and impressive goal scoring prowess put blinders over our eyes. Even if Haaland does somehow end up being an injury-free regular starter, he is still far from a slam dunk to repeat his prodigious previous output and provide fantasy value this upcoming season with City for a multitude of reasons.</p>
<p id="Ah0ViC">~</p>
<h3 id="xdKv1r">A. The FPL Scoring Bias Against Forwards</h3>
<p id="JG3e2Y">Did you notice something from segment 1D above? Forwards pale in comparison to midfielders in terms of FPL scoring. The following comparison perfectly illustrates the bias toward midfielders and against forwards inherent in the platform:</p>
<ul>
<li id="5k0Djm">Forward Harry Kane enjoyed an other-worldy 2020-21 season, winning both the Golden Boot and assist title outright. Tottenham’s Kane turned his 23 goals and 14 fantasy assists into a huge 242 point haul.</li>
<li id="CtGouD">Midfielder MoSalah produced a galactic 2021-22 season, winning both the Golden Boot (shared with Spurs’ Son Heung-min) and assist crown. Salah turned his 23 goals and 14 fantasy assists into a mammoth 265 point haul. </li>
</ul>
<p id="oWaqcb">That’s a 23 point difference in favor of the midfielder for the exact same goal and assist totals. Taking the captaincy into account, it’s a 46 point chasm! </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="TOPSHOT-FBL-ENG-PR-LIVERPOOL-TOTTENHAM" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NxdMmHUReakVLDpIsBSPe1Im8t0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23669144/1230163436.jpg">
<cite>Photo by JON SUPER/POOL/AFP via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Forward Kane lags behind midfielder Salah in FPL scoring even when they put up identical goal and assist numbers.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="2OpgnX">Going further and opening up the scoring on the platform to all four positions, Harry Kane ranked only 7th overall in FPL in 2021-22 as the sole forward in the top 15, with Cristiano Ronaldo tied all the way back at #19. Here is the breakdown of the top 20 FPL scorers by position:</p>
<ul>
<li id="FMHqyr">11 midfielders</li>
<li id="RMzv4a">6 defenders</li>
<li id="EutfRO">2 forwards</li>
<li id="7gCqpq">1 keeper</li>
</ul>
<p id="VFhjmv">That’s right, folks, there were just two forwards in the top 20! Meanwhile, midfielders themselves accounted for over half of the players. Midfielders and defenders combined represented a whopping 85% of players on the list.</p>
<div id="yZ0wgn"><div data-anthem-component="table:11316305"></div></div>
<p id="jBzW96">Why were forwards so under-represented, despite having plenty of big-name players at the position who cost plenty of coin both in real life and in fantasy? Largely it’s because the FPL scoring system is inherently biased against strikers. Forwards get only four points for a goal (compared to five for midfielders and six for defenders); strikers don’t get any clean sheet credit (whereas midfielders get one pt and defenders four), and forwards tend to deliver far fewer assists (three pts each) than the top midfielders and defenders.</p>
<p id="smPXHD">And no, I did not forget about keepers, who can translate a combination of clean sheets and saves into big fantasy returns at a comparatively cheap price. That’s how the best player at the position, Liverpool’s Alisson, actually outscored Cristiano Ronaldo by 17 points!</p>
<p id="Fky6RB">~</p>
<p id="LyQU7O"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: Forwards far too frequently end up being poor investments in FPL compared to other positions. If you are paying heavily for a forward, risk aversion is vital.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="8KlcSj">
<h3 id="e8axci">B. The Unpredictable, Often Underwhelming Nature of PKs</h3>
<p id="EFJIB3">Fantasy managers love having players who take penalty kicks since that can mean a big haul of “extra” points for goals plus corresponding bonus awards. In one notable example, a whopping half (nine out of 18) of Bruno Fernandes’ goals in 2020-21 came from the PK spot. “Penandes” was one of fantasy’s top performers in racking up 244 points that season, and a very significant proportion of that production was tied to the combination of his designation as #1 pen taker, his outstanding conversion rate (9 out of 10) and the Red Devils’ uncanny ability to draw PKs.</p>
<p id="d5Tf4K">However, <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Man United</a> went from earning 11 PKs in 2020-21 to only five in 2021-22, and Bruno was relegated to #2 PK status behind Cristiano Ronaldo after his fellow Portugal superstar transferred from <a href="https://www.blackwhitereadallover.com">Juventus</a>. Failing to convert a single penalty kick, Fernandes fell off a cliff by returning only 151 fantasy points.</p>
<p id="0owcDW">Fantasy managers who were were also left disappointed, counting on Cristiano Ronaldo to make a huge impact from the spot, as Fernandes had done the prior season, but only three of CR7’s 18 goals came from penalties.</p>
<p id="iaVjy4">You may be asking, <em>But what does Man United have to do with Man City?</em> Alright, then, let’s focus on the Sky Blue side of “Madchester.” Erling Haaland is an outstanding penalty kick taker, having converted 26 out of 28 tries across all competitions in his career. He is 8 for 10 in the Bundlesliga, and 3 for 3 in the Champions League. Since the departure of Sergio Aguero, Man City has had trouble converting penalties. Riyad Mahrez was the primary PK taker last season, but the winger converted a subpar rate of 12 for 18 (67%) in his Premier League career. The expectation will absolutely be for Haaland to be handed the #1 penalty responsibility at City.</p>
<p id="0xHBFJ">We know that the Citizens score goals by the boatload, phenomenally leading the league in that category each of the past five campaigns. They must get torrents of penalties, right? No, City’s PK contribution to the overall goal scoring tally is a bit (or maybe more than a bit) underwhelming on balance. Looking at the past five seasons, City has averaged a staggering 97 goals, but with just 5.4 scores from 8.2 attempts at the penalty spot.</p>
<div id="d0yWvn"><div data-anthem-component="table:11316357"></div></div>
<p id="3dKefn">As with Man United, there is always variance to consider. If City gets 11 attempts as in 2019-20, fantasy managers with Haaland will be overjoyed. But what if City ends up with only four tries as happened in 2018-19? That would be a disaster.</p>
<p id="QD2Zly">Even worse, given the playing time concerns that have already been established, the fundamental problem is that we cannot count on Haaland being a regular starter. Seeing that no single City player has had more than four conversions or five attempts from the spot in any of the past five seasons, it is easy to envision a similar four for five best case scenario for Haaland in 2022-23. And what if he ends up only two for two or three, which was the situation for City in 2018-19 through 2020-21? That would be even a bigger catastrophe.</p>
<p id="1uT4Mu">Circling back to Ronaldo, we now need to ask, <em>Was CR-7 an outlier in 2021-22?</em> <em>Was being 3 for 3 from the spot unusually low for a top forward?</em> Well, let’s now look at the penalty contribution for the top five forwards in FPL last season.</p>
<div id="dLIWoA"><div data-anthem-component="table:11316360"></div></div>
<p id="bUanU4">Harry Kane had only four penalty attempts featuring for a Spurs attack that finished fourth in the league in goals scored. None of the top five FPL forwards had more than five PK tries. The average was 3.0 conversions out of 3.2 attempts. So Ronaldo’s 3 for 3 line may have been surprising considering <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Manchester United</a>’s proficiency at drawing PKs in recent history, but no, it was not out of the ordinary at all last season in terms of the top forwards.</p>
<p id="zAgEJe">~</p>
<p id="qbgS4u"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: Fantasy managers are surely entertaining visions of Haaland going 7 for 8, or even 9 for 10 from the PK spot. While that is not outside the realm of possibility, the odds are against it. Something more along the lines of 3 for 3 or 4 for 5 may actually be more realistic. </em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="9qThUV">
<h3 id="dtwZz3">C. The Recent Paucity of Golden Boot Scoring Compared to Other European Leagues</h3>
<p id="acHVvV">Robin van Persie scored 30 goals for <a href="https://thebusbybabe.sbnation.com">Man United</a> in 2011-12. Luis Suarez netted 31 times for Liverpool in 2013-14. Liverpool’s Mo Salah led the EPL with 32 (and Tottenham’s Harry Kane chipped in with 30 of his own) as recently as 2017-18. So it is not as if we have to go back to the Dark Ages to find prolific goal scoring outputs by the Prem’s Golden Boot winner.</p>
<p id="TYXJyD">Meanwhile, Manchester City and Liverpool amazingly each cracked 100+ in 2013-14, and City set a new record for any EPL team with 106 goals in 2017-18. Just last season, City scored 99 times as Liverpool finished with 94. So I don’t think we will find too many fans complaining that scoring is at a dearth in the Premiership. </p>
<p id="6nrk59">However, in the past four seasons, the well has dried up, at least with respect to the EPL Golden Boot winner. Prem <em>aficionados</em> love to boast that the league contains a level of depth for its 20 teams that is unparalleled in world football.</p>
<p id="PSzYQ6">That breadth of quality arguably leaves not only a greater number of tough teams to face from the top of the table — a “Big Six” whereas other leagues may feature only two, three or four truly elite sides — but also fewer easy fixtures against so-called bottom feeders. Perhaps there is something to that depth claim, which could help explain the relatively low scores by the EPL Golden Boot winner in recent campaigns (an average of 23 goals per season) compared to the leading scorers in other top European leagues (ranging from 27 up to 33 goals per campaign in Germany’s Bundesliga, Spain’s La Liga, Italy’s Serie A<em> </em>and France’s Ligue 1).</p>
<div id="h1tq36"><div data-anthem-component="table:11318065"></div></div>
<p id="ukQ3Tk">Highlighting the difference in output, the EPL Golden Boot winner has been stuck under 25 goals per season in each of the past four seasons. Meanwhile, the other four top European leagues managed to crack 25+ goals in 14 of the combined 16 occasions covering the same span. Furthermore, the top scorer has cracked 30+ goals at least once in each of the other leagues, doing so a combined seven times out of 16 tries. </p>
<p id="tIMSPW">Compared to the other top European domestic leagues, the EPL sees the biggest deficit with the Bundesliga. Over the past four seasons, the Prem’s Golden Boot winner (22.75 goals) has netted 31% fewer times on average than the Bundesliga’s top scorer (33.0 goals). Haaland scored 27 goals in 2020-21 and 22 goals in 2021-22 in domestic play; if you were to simply lop 31% off those tallies, you would be left with 19 and 15 goals, respectively, for each of the past two seasons. Haaland’s goal scoring output suddenly doesn’t sound so remarkable after all, does it? </p>
<p id="Mtn2OK">If you want to make an argument that Robert Lewandowski, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe are better pure goal scorers than those put on offer by the EPL in the past several seasons, that’s your prerogative. But in countering that stance, first I would say that Mo Salah, Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, Sadio Mane and Son are absolutely world class goal scorers. </p>
<p id="Grkhb2">Second, I would add that when you look at the top scorers from the other European leagues, you can’t leave out Wissam Ben Yedder, Fabio Quagliarella and Ciro Immobile, none of whom are exactly household names.</p>
<p id="PoiJT2">Third, on the flip side of that coin, don’t forget to include Cristiano Ronaldo who actually finished five goals shy of the Golden Boot when he was in the EPL last season.</p>
<p id="35Wnuu">And fourth, even if you still want to claim that the likes of Lewandowski / Messi / Mbappe are better than Salah / Kane / Vardy, I would ask, <em>By how much? 5%? 10%? </em>The average Bundesliga tally of 33.0 goals is 47% more than the EPL’s 22.75 goals. Is Lewandowski really 47% better than Vardy at putting the ball in the net?</p>
<p id="ue5HAL">The shared La Liga and Serie A mark of 29.5 scores is 30% higher than 22.75. Is Messi truly 30% better than Kane? The Ligue 1 average of 26.5 goals is 16% higher than 22.75. s Kylian Mbappe in fact 16% better than Salah? </p>
<p id="89KlrY">~</p>
<p id="rHypkI"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: Haaland could deliver a huge scoring output this upcoming season, but that would be an awful lot to ask. First of all, no player in the EPL has managed more than 23 goals in any of the past four seasons. Furthermore, numbers from the top Bundesliga, Ligue 1, La Liga and Serie A scorers are practically on steroids compared to the tamer tallies from EPL Golden Boot winners, with the Bundesliga being inflated the most. Along the lines of grading on a curve, we should be wary of that severe EPL deficit when attempting to translate Haaland’s output from the top German league.</em><em><strong> </strong></em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="UgJt8W">
<h3 id="VgtSUK">D. The Recent History of Bundesliga Attacking Busts</h3>
<p id="hJEQMy">Let’s segue to another possible downside regarding the Bundesliga. Many players from outside leagues have struggled to adapt immediately to the rigors of the EPL. It is not an uncommon phenomenon. However, it has been a notorious dumpster fire in recent years for attackers coming over from Germany’s top league. </p>
<p id="Ly25uj">Top EPL teams — West Ham, <a href="https://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com">Chelsea</a>, Man United and Man City — have spared no expense to bring over high profile attackers from the Bundesliga in the past three seasons. Fans and fantasy managers alike were salivating over the prospects of Sebastian Haller, Kai Havertz, Timo Werner and Jadon Sancho after they had put up huge numbers in Germany, averaging 16 goals plus 9 assists the prior season leading up to their transfer. However, in every case they turned out to be a massive bust, averaging only five goals plus six assists in their initial campaign for their new EPL team. </p>
<div id="Y9gHqb"><div data-anthem-component="table:11316383"></div></div>
<p id="Xm4yWA"><em>(NOTE: Readers may have been expecting to see a third Bundesliga to Chelsea transfer, Christian Pulisic, mentioned in this section. However, I do not consider the American a bust in terms of production. Pulisic never scored more than four goals or provided more than eight assists in the league in any of his three seasons with Borussia Dortmund, so I left him out of the table. But yes, given the pricey nature of his acquisition, Pulisic should certainly be considered a flop.)</em></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SuDlxKpg9rdLxgOW2ArITvYMIzQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23669156/1366439236.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Chelsea have been the poster team for recent Bundesliga to EPL busts.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Zinxv2">While the Bundesliga to EPL pipeline has been a wasteland for the most part, is not entirely bereft of success stories. But you would have to go all the way back to the 2017-18 midseason acquisition of Borussia Dortmund forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang by Arsenal to find an immediately successful high profile attacking transfer from the Bundesliga to the Premier League. It also bears mention that Aubameyang was very well seasoned, 28 at the time with four and a half seasons at Borussia Dortmund under his belt. </p>
<p id="6rY5hp">Many will also recall the success of Leroy Sane when he came over from the Bundesliga. However, as mentioned in section 1B, the German international was not an immediate EPL triumph, as his production fell off from eight goals plus six assists in his final season at Schalke down to only five goals plus five assists in his first campaign with Man City. Rather, Sane did not make a major impact until his second season in the Premier League when his playing time spiked.</p>
<p id="pjy3s6">~</p>
<p id="ew2X1r"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: Fantasy managers are hoping that Haaland will be the next Aubameyang in terms of making an immediate impact coming over from the Bundesliga. However, the odds are stacked against him given the more recent struggles of Haller, Havertz, Werner and Sancho. </em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="jPy5wI">
<h3 id="YlGWFJ">E. The Recent History of Forward Flops</h3>
<p id="oA621J">Haller and Werner are forwards, but Havertz and Sancho are not. So perhaps it is unfair to hold the failures of Havertz and Sancho against Haaland’s prospects for success. In that vein, let’s focus entirely on forwards. </p>
<p id="8E5Ltx">As it turns out, looking only at strikers does not help Haaland’s prospects. In fact, it may make the picture even worse, considering just how high the expectations were for superstars Cristiano Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku last season, and particularly given that both had previously established themselves as proven goal-scorers in the EPL. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Belgium v Portugal UEFA Euro 2020 Round of 16" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gVFVhm3PkwNNRf3uvCbhFy9k8XM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23668307/1233691422.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Nico Vereecken / Photonews via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>FPL managers excitedly chose between Ronaldo and Lukaku at the start of last season. Both failed to measure up to expectations.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="8LoUF9">In this case, the average for Haller, Werner, Lukaku and Werner was 24 goals plus 7 assists in the prior season, and that plummeted to ten goals plus five assists in the EPL season thereafter. </p>
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<p id="nOgCBR">Cristiano Ronaldo delivered the best performance of the quartet, but his return of 159 FPL points was a definite letdown considering his previous goal scoring track record and his dear fantasy price. And while Ronaldo was disappointing but not dreadful, the other three — Haller, Werner and Lukaku — were all unmitigated disasters.</p>
<p id="OEr516">~</p>
<p id="zNDiuD"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: Fantasy managers are again hoping that Haaland will be the next Aubameyang, this time in terms of making an immediate impact at the forward position. However, the odds are stacked against him given the more recent struggles of Haller, Werner, Lukaku and Ronaldo.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="yvIt5e">
<h3 id="73QxKv">F. Man City’s Very Recent Attacking Transfer Bust</h3>
<p id="ft4Z54">Some teams do not fare well in the transfer market. For instance, Man United is infamous for wasting astronomical chunks of coin in the post-Sir Alex Ferguson era on a dizzying horde of flops: Paul Pogba, Juan Mata, Marouane Fellaini, Angel di Maria, Luke Shaw, Ander Herrera, Anthony Martial, Memphis Depay, Morgan Schneiderlin, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Eric Bailly, Paul Pogba, Romelu Lukaku, Alexis Sanchez, Fred, Harry Maguire, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Donny van de Beek, Paul Pogba, and most recently Jadon Sancho (who of course is still a work in progress). </p>
<p id="YX6WPd">In contrast, like Liverpool, Man City has proven phenomenally shrewd at targeting players who fit their systems collectively while also developing individually. However, as mentioned, these successes tend to take time, and no team is perfect. Even Man City has suffered a few busts.</p>
<p id="bxqifV">Jack Grealish was included earlier in Section 1B with respect to playing time worries, but I think he deserves special mention again in his own segment here regarding production concern. Given his talent and experience, I am sure that most of us thought Grealish had a good chance of integrating well and achieving fairly quick success surrounded by fellow stars in the lethal City attack. I don’t reckon anybody expected him to outperform Kevin de Bruyne, but there was reason to hope that he had a legitimate shot at being a better fantasy value than some or all among the remaining attacking cadre of Gabriel Jesus, Phil Foden, Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva.</p>
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<img alt="Manchester City v Aston Villa - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TEVaMt1OW6zMVCKQX41QKoL-OSk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23668306/1399252300.jpg">
<cite>Photo by James Gill - Danehouse/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Has everybody somehow magically forgotten about Jack Grealish?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="McajSs">Yet in 2021-22, the newcomer was an unmitigated fantasy disaster, finishing with only 86 FPL points in 1,910 minutes. Whichever way you cut it is ugly, with Grealish ranking as just the 8th best midfielder on the team and 13th overall Citizen in fantasy points. After returning strong FPL value at <a href="https://7500toholte.sbnation.com">Aston Villa</a>, his production simply vanished in his debut campaign with City.</p>
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<p id="5M6XE8">Compared to the prior two seasons, Grealish went from scoring 14 goals in 5,416’ for Villa, an average of 0.23 goals per 90’, down to just three goals in 1,910’ in his first campaign with City, a measly 0.14 goals per 90’. While the goal scoring decline was bad enough, the playmaking falloff was even worse. Grealish totaled 19 assists in his prior two seasons, an average of 0.32 assists per 90’. Surrounded by a vast array of talent on an explosive Man City team in 2021-22, Grealish somehow managed just three assists in 1,910’, translating to 0.14 assists per 90’. </p>
<p id="PPY4jI">Combining the two, Grealish fell off from an average of 0.55 contributions per 90’ with Villa down to 0.28 G+fA per 90’ with City, a 48% decline. As his goals and assists both dried out, Grealish’s FPL production plunged to 3.31 ppg, becoming pure fantasy poison. And while Grealish did come off the bench more often (in terms of starts divided by team games), which hurt his production from the standpoint of the entire season, the PPG drop had nothing to do with that; Grealish actually started games at nearly the same clip (in terms of starts divided by appearances) with City as he had done for Aston Villa.</p>
<p id="at36dO">Why is this worrying for Haaland? Well, if you think Haaland somehow is more ready than Grealish was, Grealish was actually significantly older (25) starting his first season with City than Haaland (22) will be, plus unlike the incoming Borussia Dortmund transfer, Grealish was already fully acclimatized to the demands of the Premiership with two seasons of EPL play under his belt. And while I do not doubt that Guardiola and the City brass fully believe that Haaland will be a wonderful fit, don’t forget that Grealish cost $129.3m — the most ever spent by Manchester City on a transfer — and as mentioned essentially was picked over Harry Kane. It should not be diminished just how highly regarded Grealish was by Guardiola and the City brass who clearly also thought he would be the perfect match when bringing him in a year ago.</p>
<p id="iGDlJS">~</p>
<p id="5L6dbY"><em>THE TAKEAWAY: On balance, Man City is brilliant in transfer implementation, and the wisdom of bringing in Haaland should not be doubted. However, have we somehow erased last summer’s debacle from our memories? The extremely recent complete failure of attacker Grealish to bed in with City during his first season has to factor into our expectation regarding the level of Haaland’s likely effectiveness in the upcoming campaign, doesn’t it?</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="jvmgR6">
<h3 id="dKFdlG">THE BOTTOM LINE</h3>
<p id="MOr8uN">Nothing is 100% certain in life other than death, taxes and Jose Mourinho eventually laying waste to whatever team he is managing. So I am not foolish enough to say that Haaland will definitively be a bust. The young star has registered an astronomical tally of 62 goals plus 19 assists in 67 Bundesliga tilts for Borussia Dortmund over the past two and a half seasons, adding a stupendous 23 goals plus three assists in 19 Champions League affairs covering the past three campaigns with RB Salzburg (of the Austrian Bundesliga) and Dortmund (German Bundesliga). Those mouth-watering numbers, especially those last at the highest level of club football, combined with the appeal of joining what many consider the best attack in the world, make it very easy to understand why FPL managers and City fans are fawning all over Haaland.</p>
<p id="1xt7Cz">There is a wide range of legitimate possibilities for his delivery in FPL this upcoming season. Would I be shocked if the newcomer were a Sky Blue superstar performer immediately who scored 200+, 225+ or even 250+ points? No, of course not. Or could Haaland at least manage 175-199 points and provide a solid ROI for your outlay? Yes, naturally he could. </p>
<p id="S9ZhAs">I think Haaland is a phenomenal player and expect that he will be a wonderful fit at Man City... eventually, but probably not immediately. For Haaland to pay off at his price in FPL this upcoming season, he will need to be the second coming of Sergio Aguero from day one. But as we know, and as I have demonstrated regarding the recent history of Sky Blue and other top EPL teams’ incoming attacking transfers, it is not often easy to hit the ground running in the Prem.</p>
<p id="qSYCKV">In an ideal, purely theoretical world, every situation would be considered exclusively on its own merits. In the real world of imperfect information though, we look at past examples (giving more weight to recent patterns) in order to provide context for future projections.</p>
<p id="opQei5">Even so, that does not mean we should necessarily hold others’ failures against newcomers. Just because Jack Grealish, Romelu Lukaku, Timo Werner and others failed to make an instant impact after their high profile transfers in recent seasons does not mean that Haaland is doomed to follow suit. While Kevin de Bruyne, Gabriel Jesus, Riyad Mahrez, et al. struggled to get minutes in their first seasons at Man City, there is no guarantee that finding pitch time will be as difficult for the bright transfer of 2022-23. Even though Guardiola has frequently eschewed starting a forward in favor of the false 9 formation of late, the new striker could very well portend a return to past times when Sergio Aguero was a regular in the XI.</p>
<p id="0xiPZV">If there were only a couple/few possible problem areas, I could surely shrug them off. But as you have seen above, there are many, many potential red flags. In fact, I have highlighted 11 of them — five regarding playing time and six in the performance realm. The staggering number of land mines taken in tandem is simply impossible to ignore. The way I see the situation, the voluminous array of potential downsides tips the scales, making it more likely that Haaland will end up somewhere in the territory of 100-174 points, which would put him squarely in the bust category given his dear price.</p>
<p id="55PBno">I get the appeal of installing Haaland into your FPL teams, I really do. I know, it seems like all the cool kids are doing it, and adding the new goal scoring star on a top team is fun! But ultimately I think the wiser course of action is to avoid the risky newcomer and instead pony up big money for a reliable, proven entity. It may be a bit boring, but what you earn is the safety of pretty much knowing what you are getting if you build your team around Mo Salah (who has averaged 258 points in 2,975’ across the past five seasons and costs £13.0m) or Harry Kane (199 points in 2,858’ over the past eight campaigns at a price tag of £11.5m). By going with Haaland (£11.5m), you are placing an awfully big bet merely hoping for a level of production and playing time that is nearly guaranteed from Salah or Kane. </p>
<p id="kmcqrb">Returning to the theme of peer pressure, I’m sure we all remember our parents long ago rhetorically asking us, “If all of your friends jumped off a bridge, would you do it, too?” The most hilariously sardonic, yet still on point, example of such extreme sermonizing may have come from the film <em>Heathers</em> starring Winona Ryder, Christian Slater and Shannen Doherty. In that classic dark comedy, the fictitious band Big Fun catchily espoused the simple admonition which I advise you to heed: “Teenage Suicide (Don’t Do It).” </p>
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<p id="ryav1a">~</p>
<p id="J7x0po"><em>[</em><em><strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong></em><em> </em><a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/"><em>Transfermarkt</em></a><em>, the </em><a href="https://www.premierleague.com/stats"><em>official Premier League site</em></a><em>, the </em><a href="https://fantasy.premierleague.com/"><em>official Fantasy Premier League site</em></a><em> and </em><a href="https://www.wikipedia.org/"><em>Wikipedia</em></a><em> were used for statistical and other informational sources in the above post</em><em><strong>.</strong></em><em>]</em></p>
<p id="Q7bwH2">~</p>
<p id="JGJnKC"><em>What do you think about Erling Haaland’s prospects at Manchester City this upcoming season? If you hold high hopes for him, have I changed your mind or are you staying firm with your plans to include the bright young star in your fantasy team? Be sure to answer the poll below and share your thoughts in the comments section! </em></p>
<p id="DJfQDD">~</p>
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<p id="E3yQi9">~</p>
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https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/21/23174018/nma-erling-haaland-probably-bust-2022-23-fpl-fantrax-epl-mancity-transfer-fantasy-flop-dudChris Manfredi2022-07-04T16:56:48-07:002022-07-04T16:56:48-07:00EPL Transfer Spotlight: Tottenham’s Richarlison
<figure>
<img alt="Everton v Crystal Palace - Premier League" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/oamOxX12lncbTeYWn9UO-A8aHR0=/0x0:5403x3602/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71046349/1399263600.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tottenham’s new attacking star. | Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Brazilian attacker moves over from Everton to Spurs. What value does he bring to his new team? </p> <p id="DjqCie">Following an exciting 4th place finish last season which earned a coveted <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/champions-league">Champions League</a> spot, the <a href="https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com">Tottenham</a> brass have been very busy this summer buying new toys for Antonio Conte. First there was <a href="https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/6/8/23159639/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-tottenham-hotspur-ivan-perisic-transfer-antonio-conte-inter-milan-ucl">left wing back Ivan Perišić on a free transfer</a>. Then came goalkeeper Fraser Forster, again <em>gratis</em>. A third transfer brought defensive midfielder Yves Bissouma at a base fee of £25 million (which could rise to £35m). </p>
<p id="kLzNBO">Now in a fourth move, and making the biggest splash yet, comes the first purely attacking addition, with Brazilian winger Richarlison leaving <a href="https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com">Everton</a> for Spurs at a reported price tag of £50m plus up to £10m in risers. This makes Richarlison Tottenham’s ostensibly most expensive transfer ever, surpassing Tanguy Ndbombele’s £55m exit from Lyon in 2019. Ndombele, of course, has proven a massive bust. Will Richarlison fare better and actually make a positive impact?</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="EAvlvm">
<h3 id="3IdA4U">What Richarlison Brings to the Table</h3>
<p id="9yj2zV"><strong>POSITIVES</strong></p>
<p id="P0IMDG">Often plying his trade at left wing, Richarlison is a dazzling talent, full of pace, shiftiness and a desire to take on the defense. As the saying goes, you can’t teach confidence, and the Brazilian boasts boldness by the boatload. Having a player of Richarlison’s attacking nature and capability crucially puts pressure on the opposing defense, bringing their eyes and bodies toward him, thus opening space and opportunity for teammates in and around the box. </p>
<p id="UcI3lm">Richarlison offers bodily versatility, something illustrated beautifully by his career EPL scoring distribution. Of his 48 goals, he has tallied 23 times (48%) with his right foot, 13 celebrations (27%) with his left foot and 11 line crossers (23%) with his head. (He must have scored the remaining goal elsewhere with his body, perhaps his chest?) That adaptability is a major advantage from a team standpoint, translating into positional versatility; while Richarlison is best utilized as a left winger, he can also slot in very ably at right wing or striker should the need arise. </p>
<p id="hdQPPy">Indeed, last season at Everton, Richarlison often found himself operating up front by himself when Dominic Calvert-Lewin was waylaid with injuries. (Of course, that situation nearly led to Everton being relegated. I would blame DCL’s absence more than Richarlison’s inability to fill in at a like level, but both were factors.) </p>
<p id="modGN0">I think it is fair to say that the Lilywhites will prefer to see Richarlison operate at left wing primarily and right wing secondarily. However, Harry Kane has endured his share of injury issues here and there, and Spurs have been seeking and failing (Vincent Janssen, Fernando Llorente, Carlos Vinicius) for a long time to secure a potent back-up should the Tottenham talisman be out for any extended period of time. While Richarlison is far from the perfect prototype in that department since striker is not his natural position, he is most definitely Spurs’ best option yet put forward (pun intended) in the Kane era. </p>
<p id="LCVEsC">With Richarlison adding into the mix, Tottenham now boasts outstanding flexibility for the front three, leaving the possible permutations practically limitless. Richarlison could find himself at any of the three spots, as could Son. Even Perisic is adept at left wing attacker but could also fill in at right wing attack. With Kane dropping deeper back into midfield in playmaking mode more often the past couple of seasons, the additions of Richarlison and Perisic will make Spurs’ attack further malleable, and thus even more dangerous to confused defenses. </p>
<p id="s4jnWU">And yes, given his stature as a member of <em>A Seleção</em>, Richarlison certainly shows off no shortage of the requisite Brazilian flair that brings fans up out of their seats. Take a look at his wondrous skill set: </p>
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<p id="Gln2CH">Richarlison is a tireless worker, not just on offense but also in defense, where he has accumulated 273 tackles, 123 blocked shots, 78 interceptions, 176 clearances and 126 headed clearances across his five EPL seasons. That approach is something which will be required by Conte, and will also get the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium faithful behind him.</p>
<p id="yzD0zI">Importantly, Richarlison also brings durability, having featured in 2,500’+ minutes in each campaign with Watford and Everton. As another saying goes, health is a skill, so we can add that to Richarlison’s set of gifts.</p>
<p id="a0mud7">An added bonus is that very fact that he has played five campaigns in the league, and as such does not require any time to familiarize himself with the rigors of the Premiership. On top of that, Richarlison is still young (25), just about in his prime but certainly still having room to improve under the tutelage of one of the best managers in all of football, Antonio Conte, and through the impact of being surrounded by a bevy of world class players at Tottenham which he would have enjoyed on international breaks with Brazil, but certainly has never experienced on a day to day basis while with Watford or Everton. </p>
<p id="52hGaa">Richarlison has scored 10+ goals three times in the past five seasons, notching 150+ points in FPL twice in that span. He has also supplied 28 fantasy assists along with 32 big chances created in his EPL career. </p>
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<p id="dMJ7gB">Now having the brilliant talents of Kane, Son and Kulusevski around him, Richarlison could theoretically post the best numbers of his career... with the huge caveat being <em>if Conte affords him the requisite playing time</em>.</p>
<p id="jvcwqD">~</p>
<p id="GTgEOO"><strong>NEGATIVES</strong></p>
<p id="q9Yj8j">On the negative side, for all of the high quality shots Richarlison ends up with, he is not the most clinical finisher, with too many of his efforts going harmlessly straight at the keeper or spraying well outside of the goal frame. According to <a href="https://understat.com/player/6026">Understat</a>, compared to the 48 goals Richarlison has actually scored in the past five EPL seasons, he had an xG of 52.54; just based on watching his performances on t.v. now and then, I can honestly say that I was surprised he had only underperformed his expected tally by 4.54 goals, or basically one per season. </p>
<p id="xInpUd">Richarlison has also underperformed with respect to his expected assists (xA) metric by 4.21 in his five EPL campaigns. Again, having seen him, I will say that a fair portion of that comes from taking shots when he should pass. There is definitely a downside to that, but there is also a positive part; sometimes selfishness simply happens with attack-minded players who want to score, which can often be forgiven. Additionally, I think that a decent portion of blame for Richarlison’s assist deficit can be applied to being surrounded by subpar finishers at Watford and Everton which will rarely be the case with Tottenham. </p>
<p id="9wpDKC">On top of those drawbacks, Richarlison is one of the world’s worst with respect to the dark arts of embellishment/diving, and his body language very often is mired in moodiness and sulking. While at times he can be a hothead, you can say that about plenty of footballers; 30 yellow cards and a pair of reds over five seasons is not going to set off any major alarm bells. </p>
<p id="GHHB57">Highlighting a final concern, of his 10 goals last season, three came from converting penalty kick opportunities (again, thanks to DCL’s injury woes). With Harry Kane the clear #1 taker from the spot and Son deputizing at the ready, can anybody expect anything close to three PK scores for Richarlison this season even if he gets regular playing time? It’s possible, but no, any sort of real impact from the penalty spot is not what we should project.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="6BXc0g">
<h3 id="UMtKaM">Where, and How Often, Will Richarlison Play?</h3>
<p id="9c6EFX">Antonio Conte generally utilizes a 3-4-2-1 formation (as per <a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/tottenham-hotspur/spielplan/verein/148/plus/0?saison_id=2021">transfermarkt</a>). However you want to define it by numerical breakdown, I would simply describe it as featuring three attackers up front aided by two attacking wing backs providing service, with those five buttressed by two defensive midfielders along with three central defenders in back. Richarlison will be vying for a spot among the three attackers, emphasis on <em>vying for</em>. Because right now with the upcoming campaign beckoning, Harry Kane (forward), Son Heung-min (left wing) and Dejan Kulusevski (right wing) are securely nailed on as regular starters, particularly after the team’s fantastic flying finish last season. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United - Premier League" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Yjt5sL81BQcLRXN3d8Vy4bzBmn0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23668441/1386730221.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Tottenham Hotspur FC/Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Can Richarlison find any room in a Tottenham attack spearheaded by Kulusevski, Kane and Son?</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="voWy7I">But with Champions League, <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/fa-cup">FA Cup</a>, the League Cup and a (very hopeful, but certainly possible) EPL title race in mind, it is vital to have high quality back-ups ready to step in if a starter gets injured/suspended or loses form. Antonio Conte is getting that vital depth not only to help in the quest of finally seeing Tottenham lift a trophy after such a long drought, but also with the added benefit of players keeping each other focused by competing in practice for playing time in games. </p>
<p id="noHD6f">With Steven Bergwijn, Lucas Moura and Tanguy Ndombele all rumored to be on the way out via transfer or loan, it was necessary to bring in someone like Richarlison to be first off the bench when the team needs an attacking spark, or ready to step into the XI when Kane, Son and/or Kulusevski are unable to start. With the return of the five substitute rule (up from the usual three), we can be fairly certain that Richarlison will feature in a huge proportion of games this season. However, we have to expect that the vast majority of those appearances will come from the bench. As such, absent a long-term injury to one of Spurs’ big three up front, Richarlison’s fantasy value with Spurs takes an enormous hit after regularly starting for Everton.</p>
<p id="QcZQne">I’m going to take a look at other EPL wingers, this time focusing on a few who were big fish in a small pond before jumping into much larger lagoons and becoming comparative guppies sometime in the past several seasons. The English waters don’t get any bigger than <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a>, <a href="https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/">Liverpool</a> and Chelsea, do they? Let’s concentrate there.</p>
<p id="QHBqSl">Riyad Mahrez (Man City), Hakim Ziyech (Chelsea) and Diogo Jota (Liverpool) all saw their pitch presence severely diminished after taking the step up to a massive EPL team; Mahrez and Jota came from smaller sides within the Premiership, whereas Ziyech came from a lesser league, the Dutch <em>Eredivisie</em>. </p>
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<p id="ax91E0">If Kane, Son and Kulusevski stay healthy and productive, I think that we can expect a similar reduction in playing opportunity for Richarlison in moving from Everton to Tottenham. Unfortunately, a projected pitch time in the sub-2,000’ realm is not enough to justify an FPL outlay for Richarlison at his likely price tag.</p>
<p id="bSLZal">On top of that, his expected position assignment brings another blow to his fantasy value. Richarlison has been classified both as a midfielder and forward in his time in the EPL, but he has been saddled with the latter designation in more recent campaigns (hence his reduction in FPL points the past two seasons). Regrettably, given how often he played up front filling in for DCL last season, I would expect him to remain listed at forward. With forwards earning one fewer point than midfielders for each goal, plus missing out on the one point clean sheet bonus, that dims his fantasy prospects even further.</p>
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<h3 id="o5sOTa">Where Does Richarlison’s Departure Leave Everton?</h3>
<p id="MRLYJY">We have recently seen a player transfer within the EPL hurt the selling team. In January 2022, Burnley sold striker Chris Wood to <a href="https://cominghomenewcastle.sbnation.com">Newcastle</a>, and then immediately brought in Wout Weghorst as a replacement. Unfortunately, Weghorst only contributed 2 goals and 3 assists as the Clarets ended up getting relegated. (That said, I wouldn’t necessarily blame the relegation on Wood’s absence <em>per se</em>, as he only scored 2 goals with no assists after going to the Magpies. But it’s difficult to imagine that move doing anything but sour the mood in the clubhouse and in the stands.)</p>
<p id="PZaa4h">With Richarlison himself, though, there is an example of a transfer actually helping the selling side. Watford finished 2017-18 in 14th place before shipping Richarlison off to Everton for £35m initially with risers increasing the fee to as much as £50m. In 2018-19, using the haul to bring in Gerard Deulofeu, Adam Masina, Ben Foster and Ken Sema, The Hornets actually improved to the 11th spot. Meanwhile, the Toffees merely remained in 8th place. Aside from getting Dominic Calvert-Lewin back to full health (unless he follows Richarlison out the door as is rumored), it is now crucial that Everton replicate what Watford did by spending wisely if the Toffees wish to avoid another relegation scrap this season. Good luck, Frank Lampard & co., you are really going to need it.</p>
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<h3 id="VJnhzm">The Bottom Line</h3>
<p id="RaUaWg">An EPL side which truly aspires to challenge for trophies has to go two deep at every position, or at least at the most important spots. How many times have you tuned in to a Sky Blues game, glanced over at the star-studded bench and thought, <em>their B-team could beat most other A-teams in the league</em>. The top squads — Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea — are stocked up and down the roster with top quality depth. With the addition of Richarlison now following several other key signings, and with one or two more newcomers purportedly on the way, Tottenham is attempting to join that same elite level, or at least be in the ballpark. </p>
<p id="tcgNsN"><em>A la</em> Ivan Perišić, I expect Richarlison to be squarely in the category of brilliant signing for Tottenham but afterthought in fantasy due to concerns over regular playing time. With respect to FPL prospects, I think that Richarlison will probably at best only be an intriguing plug and play selection if Kane or Son miss extended time with injury or if Kulusevski experiences a sophomore dip in form. </p>
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<p id="J7x0po"><em>[</em><em><strong>SOURCE NOTE: </strong></em><a href="https://understat.com/"><em>Understat</em></a><em>, </em><a href="https://www.transfermarkt.us/"><em>Transfermarkt</em></a><em>, the </em><a href="https://www.premierleague.com/stats"><em>official Premier League site</em></a><em> and the </em><a href="https://fantasy.premierleague.com/"><em>official Fantasy Premier League site</em></a><em> were used for statistical and other informational sources in the above post</em><em><strong>.</strong></em><em>]</em></p>
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<p id="JGJnKC"><em>Do you think Richarlison is a good fit at Tottenham? What is your interest in the Brazilian star from a fantasy perspective? Be sure to answer the poll below and share your thoughts in the comments section! </em> </p>
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https://www.nevermanagealone.com/2022/7/4/23190691/nma-epl-transfer-spotlight-tottenham-richarlison-brazil-everton-summer-fpl-fantraxChris Manfredi